Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[alanrex] 15/6/2009 10:51

CR - Pass. hadnt even noticed it until you mentioned it. Maybe we might see an RNS soon to provide further light.

Are you in these shares too?

[the drewster] 15/6/2009 10:49

Given the ship's leaky grapevine, no doubt something will prove to be up before too long. When oh when will the powers that be get to grips with such tactics, especially if this proves to be the case (again) with this one?

[cockneyrebel] 15/6/2009 10:44

Whats with the 8m shares traded late Friday at 3p over the market price?

CR

[the drewster] 09/6/2009 14:25

Several problems to overcome I fear, whether any of them prove insurmountable in the current landscape is anyone's guess.
I hold no position here, but have done in the past.

[alanrex] 09/6/2009 14:04

drewster - all very frustrating. i could see the shares lagging and sold out just after the results despite holding a long term bullish view on this stock. I then brought back in as the initial share price reaction seemed to defy me! and i should have stuck with my original view! i think the share price requires government action on the wholesale market and a sustained and proved recovery in the wider economy (neither of which seem immediately apparent)

all imo dyor

[the drewster] 09/6/2009 13:37

only a 30% rise tomorrow empire and your prediction will be true.

Still clearly not everyone is convinced with the story here.

[future financier] 28/5/2009 11:03

empire - do not confuse "cash" with free cash - since providers of securitised money have first call on anything other than free cash - which is currently £62m - i.e. c. 25% of current MV.

But I love your predictions!

[alanrex] 27/5/2009 19:54

empirestate - i agree and hence why i rushed back in!

all imo dyor

[empirestate] 27/5/2009 18:51

what a great performance today. reckon plenty more in store, reckon 2 week price target £1.00 and one month target £1.40 (still with mcap of 30% discount to cash)

[alanrex] 27/5/2009 13:14

screwed up by selling out. Im back in now for five figures...

[sportbilly1976] 25/5/2009 18:01

Looking well poised - broke thorugh the previous long-term resistance at the 60p level, but not the 70p one...has since back-tested the resistacne as support..now set to go through the 70p one...

This si a stronger one as it has also acted as support. A break of this level should signal an approach to the previous strong resistance at 118-120p which has held several times before, and possibly (given newsflow or significant volume) on to the one at 150p


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[empirestate] 22/5/2009 15:15

couple of years for £1.50 future , more like 6 months. couple of years more like £2.50/£3.00

[empirestate] 22/5/2009 15:15

couple of years for £1.50 future , more like 6 months. couple of years more like £2.50/£3.00

[future financier] 21/5/2009 17:31

If I could see any strong midium term prospects elsewhere I would sell too - but whilst my cash is in PAG at least I am not tempted to put it on the stock market equivalent of a three legged nag.

I am still optimistic that I will be able to sell this for £1.50 plus within a couple of years - nothing has happened yet to indicate otherwise. On that basis I am prepared to hold irrespective of short term fluctuations - and I don't want to miss out on a rise that can occur at any time without there being any obvious reason (as in past few weeks).

[alanrex] 20/5/2009 17:43

but handycam, can it be realised is the question. If it went into run-off and you discounted the cash flows on 9 year basis (given the redemption rate) then you may have value x. Obviously if the MBS security market then you make an argument about new business flows etc. but unfortunately the management are sitting this one out until the world improves from what i can see....i had held for quite some months but i cant see positive news anytime soon and think this will need newsflow (am still positive overall though). i hope im right as i sold out yesterday with a view that these will retrace...

all imo dyor

[handycam] 20/5/2009 16:09

[Written-down] book value north of £2.

[future financier] 19/5/2009 14:16

AR - Conventional wisdom is to run yr profits and cut yr losses. But then its better to bank a profit than lose it. My philosophy is to that if I believe that a share should risse over the long term I tend not to trade in and out. But I would probably be richer if I had done so!

[alanrex] 19/5/2009 13:42

FF- for what itsorth, im tempted to sell out and re-enter the stock at some point in the future. not overly disappointed but am still awaiting for the upturn which seems elusive for me...i can walk away now with a small profit..

all imo dyor

[future financier] 19/5/2009 11:10

First reaction to results - very disappointed - about £4m lower than I expected. Second reaction frustrated and angry.

Good news - BTL result better than I expected - down from £32.6m profit to £24.4m. Excellent result - analysed in detail in the report.

Bad news - Consumer finance down from profit of £5.8m to loss of £5.5m - and not a word of explanation. WHY NOT.

Also shareholders cash slightly lower than I expected.

TBMC still in balance sheet at cost with a goodwill of £15.9m attached - yet it made a loss of £1m (reading between the lines) in the six months. 'nuff said.

And I agree with AR about op expenses up from £15.5m in H2 2008/9 to £18.9m - i.e. 22% increase.

[alanrex] 19/5/2009 09:26

ok set of results. Although Costs seem high, the impression is given that the worse may be behind them and there is some stabilisation in the market. There is though a lack of good new news which may prevent the shares moving too far north and the company seem to hope that the govt will action this part of the mortgage market. I guess im glad there are no very bad surprises and that the corner seems to be turning although the road seems to currently have no direction.

all imo dyor

[future financier] 18/5/2009 17:07

AR - in your (and my) dreams!