Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[alanrex] 18/5/2009 13:50

i guess tomorrow will be interesting. no new news would be good news, bad news could be treated very badly (sign of things to come) and ideally some positive new news about partnerships or takeover talks even!!

all imo dyor

[handycam] 15/5/2009 10:50

Interims Tues.

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 15:33

I definitely think its possible by the end of next year! I suspect any re-rating will be sharp! It wouldnt surprise me if the share price doenst move north by this time next year that the mgmt find themselves in danger..

all imo dyor

[future financier] 14/5/2009 15:26

Incidentally if you want to track their loan book performance (redemptions, arrears, repos, margin etc.) look at the SPV stat on their website

[future financier] 14/5/2009 15:14

That's one hell of a proviso AR!

I'd be delighted to see £2 - now or any time in the next few years!

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 15:11

personally i think £2 is achiveable if they can get through to end of the next year with an economny firmly back on track and without any major hiccups.. (thats what im investing for!)

all imo dyor

[future financier] 14/5/2009 15:10

AR - 19 May (per PAG website)

[future financier] 14/5/2009 15:09

One good thing about holding PAG over the last year is that my cash was locked here going nowhere - rather than being tempted to play with HBOS (RIP), BB (RIP), RBS, LLOY etc. !

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 15:09

does anyone know the exact day in may when the results are due?

thanks in advance

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 15:09

If we see £20, you have my permission to give me a two-fingered "I told you so".

I think £2 will be achievable if they find some way of sensibly using the extortionate cost base they chose not to rationalise when they made redundancies last year. Doing what exactly, well, that's Mr T's problem.

[future financier] 14/5/2009 15:07

TD - I agree about their current activity - just that at present there is no indication that they, or anybody else, have found any alternative strategy. Disagree on costs - but the truth will out soon!

On historical share price - quite right, although to be fair you should factor in the dilutive effect of the RI - so the effective peak price was c. £20. Don't think we will see that again in my lifetime!

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 14:37

You should also point out that those with a bullish outlook since anytime pre-2009, and particularly anytime pre-2008 need particularly deep pockets.

Over 7000p equivalent price at peak after the 10-1 consolidation. Every old share held allowed "bulls" to buy 25 new ones at 10p each (2.5 new at £1 effectively as the consolidation was simultaneous).

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 14:32

interesting - i think the last two sum up why the lack of interest in the stock. Its not well understood, and for those looking for a bear case its not hard to find whilst those with a bull case with conviction require a deep understanding. im still a holder and will remain so, but disappointed by the share price movement..

all imo dyor

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 14:24

FF, I do not believe it is a run off period - I genuinely believe they are actively pursuing alternative strategies and suspect that is much more the reason behind the price action than the general market recovery.
Time will tell (unless it all falls through).

Costs are rising, I have seen no evidence of further redundancies, so the cost base iteself will be high, the redemption rates I would expect to have been very low or zero as alternate means of finance have dried up, so that just leaves the potential problem of landlords suffering vacant properties and personal bankruptcies, which is clearly a reality, though not necessarily within the PAG portfolio.

PAGs a notoriously leaky ship, so I expect the price to indicate what might be likely prior to any announcement.

[future financier] 14/5/2009 14:23

One thing on price AR - PAG seems to take up to 6 weeks to digest news (good or bad) fully. So if figures look good (or bad) when they come out you appear to have plenty of time to buy/sell after the announcement and before the price reflects the news fully.

[future financier] 14/5/2009 14:20

I've given up on share price - TD would only counter any target I set with my abject failure to predict price in the past. Problem is that market as a whole does not understand PAG (partly their own fault), it is also in a run-off position until securitisation returns - so no real future until there is visibility on this.

On a positive note their institutional shareholders are generally very supportive - so major sell-off is unlikely. Just pi's trading in and out to create the swings.

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 13:49

FF- Whats your price target/rationale?

[future financier] 14/5/2009 13:24

Interims due in about a week - should be interesting.

Securitisation stats do show a worsening trend in arrears/repossessions. BUT the reduction in LIBOR means that lost interest on these is also declining - and more importantly there is an increasing probability that interest cost is actually covered by rent. I suspect that in a majority of repossessions PAG is actually making a profit on the rent - so they then have to decide whether to become long term (profitable) landlords - or else sell (quite possibly at a loss). Probably a no brainer - and this is evidenced by the lack of realised losses in the sec. stats.

And before TD pours scorn on my rose tinted spectacles - I do acknowledge that the continuing absence of securitised finance will be starting to hurt PAG as old securitisations suffer "step-up" interest as well as a declining proportion of A1 notes outstanding causing increased blended cost of funds.

As well as reduced income on its cash pile.

Tricky to predict results - but my best guess (and it is just that - a guess) is a reduction of around 40% from the pre-exceptional income at this time last year. So expect around £23m.

Will be intersting to see whether they 'fess up to the losses in their associated comany .....

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 12:54

FF - Thanks for the response. Presumably the view was that the share price was at the head part, and thus a fall was forthcoming!

Drewster - im not sure i agree.. personally i think the rally markch/april was reflective of the general market ra;lly particularly in financials (just take a look at lloys and barc etc).. if anything the rally in PAG was disappointing compared to the rest of the financials (or other stocks that rallied such as retailers and housebuilderS)..

i think the next update will be very interesting as there have beeen signs that the BTL market is facing some serious problems in terms of rents and rental yields which are impacting landlords. i hope theres not bad news coming though!

all imo dyor

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 11:34

Tend to agree FF.
As you know I am somewhat cynical about this company, and I suspect something is going on that has been brewing since March April time when the leaky ship will have got all their mates to get on board. The recent dip suggests those same mates have now jumped ship, so either whatever was brewing has come to nothing, or if and when it does, it is already priced in.
And there are supposed to be regulators to protect the integrity of the market, don't they make you chuckle.

[future financier] 14/5/2009 11:31

AR - chart patterns work brilliantly as a means of looking at the past and "justifying" past share price movements. They also can give some indication of the future to the extent that other "chartists" follow the share and respond to perceived pattarns - thereby causing the very price movements that they predict. So if there is a perceived "head and shoulders" forming then chartists will sell thus causing the price fall they predict.

For this to work there obviously have to be a significant number of chartists following the share - and I suspect this is probably not the case with PAG at present.

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 10:23

not sure if posting links is allowed, but chartpatterns.com give good explanations for starters

[alanrex] 14/5/2009 10:08

drewster - im notfamilair with charts, can you explain please?

[the drewster] 14/5/2009 09:23

Are we seeing the dreaded "Head and Shoulders" forming?

[alanrex] 05/5/2009 11:02

given th perormance of other financials and housing related stocks, its a little disappointing re the performance of this one...
all imo dyor