Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[mike740] 25/11/2014 09:35

25 Nov 2014 Paragon Group of... PAG Liberum Capital Buy 392.10 377.90 - 442.00 Reiterates

[mike740] 25/11/2014 09:27

25 Nov 2014 Paragon Group of... PAG Panmure Gordon Buy 392.10 377.90 500.00 500.00 Reiterates

500p share price Target.

[mike740] 25/11/2014 08:58

PAG

First of many Broker updates I reckon.......

25 Nov 2014 Paragon Group of... PAG Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 392.10 377.90 494.00 494.00 Reiterates

SP target 494p

[mike740] 25/11/2014 07:58

This Broker was looking for a 16% increase and we got a 17.2% increase year on year.

Tuesday 25 November

Paragon (PAG) will release its full-year results on Tuesday.

Analysts' expectations: Paragon's full-year results are expected to show both Mortgages and Idem Capital posting strong growth. Stuart Duncan at Peel Hunt reckons there could be a 16% increase in profits.

He anticipates "positive trends" in each aspect of the business, with expectations that "the Mortgage business [will] do £600 million of new completions, Idem [will] have completed further portfolio acquisitions, and the new bank to be making progress."

With Paragon currently trading at roughly 1.1x September 2015 forecast net asset value (NAV), he believes that this "undervalues the future growth in ROE (return on equity)", which is why he retains his 'buy' recommendation.

[mike740] 25/11/2014 07:54

HIGHLIGHTS

Underlying profits increased by 18.1% to £122.2 million from £103.5 million in 2013


2014
2013
(restated*)
Change
% change
Profit before tax
£122.8m
£104.8m
+£18.0m
+17.2%
Basic EPS
31.9p
28.2p
+3.7p
+13.1%
Dividend per share
9.0p
7.2p
+1.8p
+25%
Dividend cover ratio
3.5 times
3.9 times


Return on equity
10.7%
10.1%


Cost:income ratio
32.0%
33.2%


* note 2

Strong progress in buy-to-let and debt purchase divisions. Banking franchise established. All divisions showing strong growth prospects

· Buy-to-let completions increased by 82.5% to £656.6 million (2013: £359.8 million); pipeline increased by 78.9% to £414.8 million (2013: £231.9 million)

· Idem Capital increased its investments, net of debt, by 89.3% to £175.7 million (2013: £92.8 million)

· Paragon Bank launched car finance, second mortgage and buy-to-let operations

Significant progress achieved in Group's funding diversification strategy

· Paragon Bank's retail deposit taking activities commenced in June 2014, with £60.1 million of deposits by the year end

· Second retail bond completed, taking cumulative issuance to £185.0 million

· Two bespoke financing packages, totalling £185.6 million raised to support Idem Capital

· Warehouse facilities for buy-to-let lending increased to £550.0 million

· Securitisation issuance totalled £929.7 million over the last 12 months

Capital management

· Strong increase of 20.2% in net cash generation to £157.8 million (2013: £131.3 million)

· Group capital ratios remain strong with Core Tier 1 ratio of 19.7% and leverage ratio of 8.3%

· 2014 dividend cover ratio at top of the targeted range of 3.0 to 3.5 times, two years ahead of expectations

· Initial £50.0 million share buy-back programme announced

Outlook

· Strong new lending and debt purchase pipelines, together with the development of Paragon Bank, present significant growth prospects

· Funding diversification programme and improving debt capacity underpin sustainable growth

· Shareholder returns enhanced by higher dividends and capital management programme

[mike740] 25/11/2014 07:46

PAG

BEATS CONSENSUS Broker Figures easily......

2014 2015
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Shore Capital
21-11-14 BUY 122.20 30.50 8.60 142.50 36.10 10.40
Panmure Gordon
21-11-14 BUY 31.20 8.50 35.70 10.00
Peel Hunt LLP
21-11-14 BUY 121.20 30.01 8.20 138.66 34.23 9.50
Westhouse Securities
20-11-14 BUY
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
29-10-14 BUY 117.00 29.90 9.00 141.00 35.50 10.50
Numis Securities Ltd
24-07-14 SELL 119.20 30.70 8.76 126.70 32.80 10.10
Espirito Santo Investment Bank Inc
02-04-14 BUY 114.90 28.90 8.40 120.30 30.60 9.50
2014 2015

Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 120.68 30.28 8.58 140.40 35.30 10.13


Fantastic results and lets not forget the consensus figures were revised upwards on the IMS.

[ganthorpe] 21/11/2014 08:39

Looks like the break out results next week should be good. Time they were back over 400p.
GAN long om PAG

[the drewster] 21/11/2014 08:37

glad I didn't, but not far from a very acceptable hike from 320.

[the drewster] 12/11/2014 12:20

do you think? I'm tempted to bank profits.

[wayneduncan] 10/11/2014 17:05

Desperately trying for a break out here!

[chector177] 06/11/2014 13:23

Nice move up today

[cockneyrebel] 13/10/2014 09:45

Ah yes - but you never can tell looking at some of these in the city :-)

CR

[the drewster] 13/10/2014 09:43

Technically a "gal", surely?

Paragon Group Appoints Barclays Executive as Chief Operating Officer

LONDON--Paragon Group Of Companies PLC (PAG.LN) Thursday appointed a Barclays executive as its new chief operating officer, and said that it remains confident of meeting expectations for 2014 after posting a 17% growth in operating profits for the first nine months of the year. The financial services company said Thursday that Pam Rowland will join the group as chief operating officer in September. Ms. Rowland is currently managing director of change delivery at Barclays U.K. retail and business banking. For the nine month period to June 30, the company it made a operating profit of 88.3 million pounds ($150.58 million), up from GBP75.7 million in the year ago period. Pretax profit for the period totaled GBP88.8 million. Shares of Paragon Group at 0748 GMT are trading slightly higher at 341 pence

[cockneyrebel] 13/10/2014 09:25

Incredibly solid at this level.

What does everyone think about ex Barclays guy becoming COO here? The chart seems to have seen strong support and a lot of large fund action gone on since - 'Mr Barclay' a key factor there?

CR

[purple boots] 22/9/2014 19:59

Good to see pag rising on a poor day, hopefully bowl back up now.

[the drewster] 10/9/2014 09:04

Now, will it go low enough this time?

[nbudh80] 14/8/2014 17:14

Bit strange yupa! But either way share price heading in the right direction. Still very undervalued imho.

[yupawiese2010] 14/8/2014 10:48

Well Black Rock didn't keep there stake above 12% for very long !!!

[yupawiese2010] 13/8/2014 13:01

Along with Black Rock now above 12%.

[nbudh80] 06/8/2014 16:37

Standard Life Investments increased:

[yupawiese2010] 05/8/2014 21:49

Just look at the number of BOT trades today - incredible.

[nbudh80] 28/7/2014 16:51

Up on a FTSE down day; bodes well. Expect this too rise nicely over the summer.

[future financier] 28/7/2014 09:50

Got out of these in November 2011 (personal reasons - and other opportunities) - back in now and good to see some familiar "faces" still around (TD). Price had run way ahead of itself but is now back to levels that I predicted three years ago when I was looking for 20%+ p.a. growth - opportunity for continuing growth off current prices of around 15% p.a.

Interesting re Nick Keen - still shows at Companies House as a director - but not on the website? Will have to tap inside sources for the reason for this.