Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[mike740] 15/5/2015 12:42

Breakout at PAG Paragon.

[yupawiese2010] 05/5/2015 19:47

A stock to retire on.

[yupawiese2010] 23/4/2015 17:27

Considering light refurbishment mortgages.

[mike740] 02/4/2015 13:14

Paragon Group of Companies (The) PLC Forward P/E of just over 10 to 2016 and PEG of 0.89, looks set for robust growth imo. Far too cheap.

FORECASTS

2015 2016
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Peel Hunt LLP
01-04-15 BUY 138.83 34.27 10.50 157.09 39.27 13.00
Panmure Gordon
01-04-15 BUY 35.70 11.50 42.10 13.50
Shore Capital
27-03-15 BUY 137.10 35.60 10.80 154.00 41.00 13.00
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
17-03-15 BUY 141.40 36.40 12.00 150.40 39.40 13.70
Numis Securities Ltd
22-01-15 SELL 139.60 37.30 10.80 150.50 40.70 12.50
Westhouse Securities
18-12-14 BUY

2015 2016
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 139.12 35.94 11.07 151.60 40.23 13.16
1 Month Change -0.04 0.07 0.02 -0.78 -0.63 0.00
3 Month Change -0.08 0.04 0.02 -0.72 -0.63 0.14

GROWTH
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Norm. EPS 8.83% 2.58% 11.92%
DPS 13.04% 41.92% 18.92%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

EBITDA £138.00m £143.00m £167.00m
EBIT £135.10m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.82% 2.59% 3.08%
Dividend Cover 4.49x 3.25x 3.06x
PER 12.20x 11.89x 10.63x
PEG 1.38f 4.60f 0.89f
Net Asset Value PS 297.12p 331.00p 354.00p
Definitions Disclaimer

[mike740] 31/3/2015 08:47

PAG bouncing of it uptrend channel base line. Looks rather positive.

Paragon Group of Companies (The) broker views

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
17 Mar Canaccord Genuity Buy 427.25 495.00 495.00 Reiterates
09 Feb Liberum Capital Buy 427.25 442.00 510.00 Reiterates
26 Jan Barclays Capital Overweight 427.25 445.00 445.00 Reiterates

[yupawiese2010] 25/3/2015 16:54

Paragon will be announcing its half-year results for the six months ended 31 March 2015 on Tuesday 19 May 2015.

Sat - if your still around maybe you could put it in the header.

Cheers y

[yupawiese2010] 24/3/2015 15:51

The latest landlord research by Paragon Mortgages has revealed the average annual void period has dropped to its lowest level since 2002.

The specialist Buy-to-let mortgage lender has surveyed a panel of landlord customers for 13 years and the average void period reported in Q1 2015 – 2.4 weeks – is the lowest since the survey began.

In the last quarter of 2014 the average void period was 2.6 weeks and, comparing the first quarter of this year against Q1 2014, the length of time a landlord has experienced a void has fallen by 14% from 2.8 weeks.

Landlords have been reporting low or falling void periods since 2013 with only a slight fluctuation in mid-2013 when the average climbed marginally to three weeks.

John Heron, director of mortgages at Paragon, said: "Void periods have been consistently low for some time which is not unexpected when you also look at what landlords are telling us about the level of demand from tenants.

"In our survey for the first quarter of 2015, 42% of landlords said in their view tenant demand was either growing or booming and 54% felt demand was stable.

"The housing market is currently experiencing a shift with more people choosing to live in the private rented sector.

"This is supported by the figures released this month by the English Housing Survey which show 4.4m households are now privately rented compared with 3.9m households in the social rented sector. This change in housing dynamics appears to be a continuing and long-term trend."

[yupawiese2010] 18/3/2015 19:35

Paragon Mortgages revealed it is planning its fifth securitisation in 18 months.

Ratings agencies Moody’s and Fitch have confirmed that the pool of securitised loans will be comprised entirely of UK prime buy-to-let mortgages.

The lender is currently meeting with potential investors and hopes to agree pricing this week.

While the pool size has not yet been agreed, Paragon has the power to add a further £66m of loans to the pool as long as they are written before 31 August.
--------------

Paragon Group of Companies PLC (LON:PAG)‘s stock had its “buy” rating restated by equities researchers at Canaccord Genuity in a research report issued on Tuesday. They currently have a GBX 495 ($7.30) target price on the stock. Canaccord Genuity’s price target points to a potential upside of 17.86% from the company’s current price.

[psmig] 09/3/2015 14:17

The chart has rolled over straight after the director sells. Agree with TD. I sold out straight after the second director sells. Agree this will be a buy once more when buybacks have finished.

[the drewster] 09/3/2015 12:02

bought 320 sold 414 (avg) ... back watching waiting a subsequent re-entry for another trading batch. £50m to buy their own shares holding the price up for now, but suspect a fall when completed.

[future financier] 09/3/2015 08:28

TD - why are you so pessimistic - and are you still holding?

[yupawiese2010] 09/3/2015 07:42

I first made my initial purchase here in Oct 2010.

Numis had a sell on the stock then, to the best of my knowledge the analyst stance has never changed, when he becomes bullish will probably be the time to hit the sell button.

[the drewster] 08/3/2015 18:41

I'd be buying at 289 ... well, without bad news at least.

[psmig] 06/3/2015 19:53

Numis are having a laugh!

[mike740] 06/3/2015 09:29

PAG Present Broker Views.....

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
09 Feb Liberum Capital Buy 425.80 442.00 510.00 Reiterates
26 Jan Barclays Capital Overweight 425.80 445.00 445.00 Reiterates
22 Jan Numis Sell 425.80 289.00 289.00 Reiterates
22 Jan JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 425.80 465.00 465.00 Retains
22 Jan Panmure Gordon Buy 425.80 500.00 500.00 Reiterates

[the drewster] 28/2/2015 12:08

aren't paid much???? FF, please, keep it real.

[future financier] 27/2/2015 16:29

The Directors aren't paid much at PAG - probably had to sell some of the family silver in order to put bread on the table.

[psmig] 27/2/2015 14:27

Directors dumping loads of shares recently here

[mike740] 19/2/2015 15:42

PAG looks way too cheap on a forward P/E of just 10.6 and a PEG of 0.77 to 2016.

Paragon Group of Companies (The) PLC

FORECASTS

2015 2016
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
17-02-15 BUY 35.70 11.50 42.10 13.50
Peel Hunt LLP
16-02-15 BUY 138.83 34.27 10.50 157.09 39.27 13.00
Shore Capital
13-02-15 BUY 137.10 35.60 10.80 154.00 41.00 13.00
Numis Securities Ltd
22-01-15 SELL 139.60 37.30 10.80 150.50 40.70 12.50
Westhouse Securities
18-12-14 BUY


2015 2016
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 139.17 35.88 11.05 152.33 40.86 13.17
1 Month Change -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00
3 Month Change -1.23 0.58 0.92 17.23 0.98 1.77

GROWTH

2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Norm. EPS 8.83% 2.40% 13.87%
DPS 13.04% 41.67% 19.15%

INVESTMENT RATIOS

2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

EBITDA £138.00m £143.00m £167.00m
EBIT £135.10m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.79% 2.54% 3.03%
Dividend Cover 4.49x 3.25x 3.10x
PER 12.41x 12.12x 10.64x
PEG 1.41f 5.06f 0.77f
Net Asset Value PS 297.12p

[mike740] 19/2/2015 13:21

Brokers with a BUY rating on PAG......

Date Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes
09 Feb 15 Liberum Capital Buy 442.35 442.00 510.00 Reiterates
26 Jan 15 Barclays Capital Overweight 442.35 445.00 445.00 Reiterates
22 Jan 15 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 442.35 465.00 465.00 Retains
22 Jan 15 Panmure Gordon Buy 442.35 500.00 500.00 Reiterates
22 Jan 15 Liberum Capital Buy 442.35 442.00 442.00 Reiterates

[mike740] 19/2/2015 12:07

PAG Paragon , looks to be a fantastic long term investment here going by the technicals. Resistance looks very mild medium to long term.

Short Term Chart.....



Long Term Chart....

[chector177] 18/2/2015 17:37

Nice steady few days upwards.

[grand bornand] 06/2/2015 18:28

Yupa - Thanks for posting.