Panther Securities Share Discussion Threads

[1tx] 26/5/2021 09:24

Results show a somewhat better position than I expected with some prospects for progress;I would not suggest anyone buy the shares as frankly they are difficult to trade with a huge spread and unless something "turns up" I have my holding bought years ago for life but at least they are producing a reasonable income and is only a smallish holding!

[trcml] 26/4/2021 11:30

Research shows that illiquid shares outperform over the long-term. As investors and traders like flexibility for buying and selling decisions they want liquidity but the liquidity adds a premium to the share price: in other words, investors overpay. Property is a long-term investment: it makes no sense to provide regular updates just to join in with the hype. In my view, it is not that the market is necessarily sceptical of the management history so much as the quality of the assets and growth prospects. personally i think Panther is past it, but the old boy might surprise us yet!

[debsdowner] 20/4/2021 10:58

itx

What about the debts?

Assets are overvalued throughout the world and in the UK there is an excess of both retail and office space and that is the risk here.

If he was that shrewd why has he bought proerty arcades which have become empty and worthless?

You only have to read the news on the Coventry arcade and Bootle Strand the latter which is now a white elephant and costing the rate payers millions.

In the meantime Hamerson have revealed they are only receiving less than half their rents due|:

HAMERSON the property owner has only collected half its rents



If you think AP is a shrewd guy well why is the share price at a significant discount to its net asset value and an illiquid share to trade when the stock market was on a high recently?

The market speaks volumes its not being traded as its treated as a high risk investment and being avoided due to the markets sceptical views on management history.

If property values fall and rents fall the risk rises.

[hennessy trades] 24/3/2021 15:46

Mr Perloff is a shrewd old Londoner.he should look at partnering up with housing associations on some of these. I have a few on my books that may put money into a conversion and Panther retain the ground floors for essential retail or leisure uses. I will send him an email and see what he says.

[1tx] 24/3/2021 15:32

For heavens sake debs I wish I had shown as much "lack of judgement" as AP over the years!He has built up a probable three figures of millions property & other investments empire of which Panther is only a part.

[debsdowner] 24/3/2021 12:43

The shares are totally illiquid and no good to anyone would need to dispose of a holding with also a large spread.

Avoid imo more properties are becomimg empty every day, John Lewis announces a further 8 store closues today



A further 18,000 stores clould close this year



The purchase of Beales turned into a dissaster for Perloff it shows his lack of judgement.

[1tx] 23/3/2021 14:19

We live more or less to fight another day it seems,not too sure we should pay a divi at this time!Perhaps we should use cash to convert the gigantic Bedford town centre site to flats or the Dumfries Debs store to smaller units as is quite well located.Don't suggest anyone buys here at the moment.I retain my holding.....

[hennessy trades] 05/3/2021 07:56

Statement states that they are collecting 80% of rent but no mention of how many are concessionary rents or payment plans. It doesnt go into detail about non recoverable, rates, service charges etc. I suspect that these might be high with a lot of tenants on concessionary rents and service charge caps. How many vacant units do they have in the portfolio and how long have they been vacant? Very hard to get a feel without knowing this. A long road ahead. Some of the properties might not be lettable in current configuration/condition.

[trcml] 26/2/2021 20:40

Not a shareholder holder, but a follower (commercial property very knowledgeable). Market cap about 50% CV of portfolio valuation. Assuming actual sale price of portfolio circa 20% lower, the share price is perhaps slightly on the high side. Interesting, AP is experiencing difficulty refinancing, having to include some uncharged property to top up: one lender friendly, the other wary understandably, secondary property of the calibre P owns, particularly vacant ex department stores, is not flavour of the month.

[debsdowner] 26/2/2021 14:46

nickri

Yes have red the RNS and one must read the valuations with caution as the lenders have their own independant valuations but they may not be far out.

The dividend declaration been postponed but as the company is collecting 80% of its rents I suspect they will pay a dividend.

However the shares are illiquid and a wide spread and the yield not enough to make up for the loss of market cap.

Overall I think the shares are risky and there are better places to invest rather than tie money up in a illiquid share with assets worldwide overvalued including property.

In the next few years I expect a flood of rental property from conversions from shops and offices and that will affect yields.

[nickrl] 26/2/2021 10:18

PNS have update out on refinancing and valuation



Seem to have a valuation thats not deteriorated since last annual results which is surprising but so must the 30% industrials supporting it. They have some issue still sort on the refinancing with one lender secured the other not so are seeking an extension of 3mths on current arrangements.

Spent 5m buying themselves out of a swap which is a big expense.

[hybrasil] 26/2/2021 07:35

Have followed for many years and am a commercial property owner

40% gearing here is now actually worrying.
They will probably get through this refinance but where are they going?

[debsdowner] 25/2/2021 14:22

Copied from last interim results:

Dividends

We paid a final dividend of 6p per share on 7 September 2020 in respect for the
year ended 31 December 2019.

The Directors hope to be in a position to be able to declare a 6p interim for
the year ending 31 December 2020 in February 2021, but such declaration will be
subject to gaining a clearer understanding of COVID-19 and its financial
effects on our Group so there can be no certainty that such a dividend will be
declared. "

No news and no declaration and its the last day tomorrow.

[debsdowner] 25/2/2021 13:33

No news on refinance?

[debsdowner] 23/2/2021 12:11

1tx

You apparently know Southport quite well but Lord St is now half empty with charity shops which would not have been allowed at one time. The Scarisbrick holtel is now owned by Brittania and has one of the worst rating of the hotel industry and they own the Prince of Wales as well which is now a dump!

There had been talk of a resteraunt in the ARCADE but nothing inside to attract visitors inside the arcade as the two anchor tennants, Beales and Multiyork now dissapeared and most if not virtually all the 50 plus other small shops now disspeared.

It is truly a white elephant which cannot be converted to either offices or retail and the owners did well to sell out when they did they knew shops where on the decline and in fact shopping in Southport was in decline.

You cannot pull it down as its a listed building and with Lord Street already a mess who would want to invest considerable money and then lose it all.

You only hacve to look at the Bootle Srand which was bought by the coucil and wasted tens of millions of pounds and that indeed may be pulled down to build flats.

Perloff has lost the plot on some of his purchases didn't he buy another shopping arcade somewhere as well?

[1tx] 19/2/2021 11:55

Panther is approx 75% owned by Andrew P directly & by various family trusts & companies.I doubt if many "outsiders" have significant holdings.FWIW I have a few thousand shares which I bought years ago.The shares are presently totally illiquid and are unbuyable & unsellable.Over the years they have paid a reasonable divi & the odd special divi.Most recently when the company sold the Wimbledon Studios & the Birmingham "Girl Guides" development at a large profit.Who knows what gems or horrors exist in its portfolio!As far as Southport is concerned as well as The Wayfarers Arcade which is a superb Grade 2 listed Victorian glass roofed emporium;I imagine its only future is to turn it into a Afflecks Palace (Manchester) specialised set up & adjoining Beales;Panther also own 375 Lord St which was a large shoe shop.Until 2007 I had by my standards a very substantial interest in The Scarisbrick Hotel on the same street,which I sold to the then management.Then the hotel was mega busy as was Lord Street.How times have changed!

[debsdowner] 14/2/2021 16:15

HT

" Perloff late 70's if he stops working what quality younger property men have they got to steer the company into the future? "

He has steered the ship into a lot of rough waters with retial proerty and many of its properties not fit to convert to residential and commercial office space is now unwanted.

Some of the properties must be givingn him a headache not knowing what to do with them and not enough income to pay interest costs.

He made so much of the Wayfairers arcade expected yield now its virtually empty. As tenats start to exit in an arcade the others left look for other properties on the Higfh Street the dieease spreads.

Xhopping Arcades are becoming no go areas due to the covid pandemic and even when the UK populatiuon is all vacinated most people now shop online.

Panter has painted himslef into a corner with some of his properties and it will be interested to see how he gets out of the situation.

As for his arguments about some of the properties being converted into storage, most of the big boys in the field wnat far bigger properties than he has to hold.

The big boys wnat land no smaller than a football pitch for storage and that and I dont think he has properties in that arena.

I expect a statement possibly this week or the week after when he makes a statement on the dividend.

[hennessy trades] 13/2/2021 17:10

Perloff has seen plenty of ups and downs, so he is as good a captain Panther could have. As you said he is an old dog but where are Panther young dogs? Perloff late 70's if he stops working what quality younger property men have they got to steer the company into the future? Looking at the old account they had an accountant named Rowson who retired and a property chap called Doyle on the board, but it says he resigned to set up his own firm. It's a valid question as there are likely to be stormy waters ahead.

[topvest] 13/2/2021 16:44

Yes, their web-site has a hideous weighting towards tertiary retail. That being said they are super cheap anyway. I expect Perloff will keep the wheels on, but he is having to push water uphill.

You can't teach an old dog new tricks!

Anyway, wishing Perloff all the best and hope to get back in as a shareholder at some point.

Looking forward to the next Rambling!

[debsdowner] 13/2/2021 16:03

Share price lower now than it was in 2008 in the last financial crisis. This suggests Panther could be heading for a lot more write downs and a dividend cut.

Many of its retail properties not suitable for conversion and shops could be empty for years.

I suspect any refinancing will now come at penal interest rates meaning less profits for the company and greater risk.

The banks arent stupid they know commercial property is high risk at the moment charge interest risk accordingly.

I bet Panther won't be buying any more shopping arcades for some time. A shopping centre in Coventrly went for a few million recently which was worthe over 10 times its value a decade ago it just shows how these sites have fallen in value.

[debsdowner] 10/2/2021 16:55

Another reason to avoid is the wide spread on the stock and little volume.

[hennessy trades] 09/2/2021 10:57

Panther are facing massive valuation write downs judging by the location and type of their sites. I expect they will still pay some form of a dividend as the bulk of the stock is family owned and Mr Perloff does not take a salary.

[debsdowner] 08/2/2021 10:05

More trouble on the High Street and moree shops to permamently close in the sale of the ARCADIA brands to BooHoo who do not want the bricks and mortar shops.



Panther will hace to write down its property portfolio and there will be less rents as business close the next few months.

It will be lunacy to pay a dividend as the CEO indicated in last trading update but we will see, they normally make a statement in Februar.

I dont known whehter they have shops renrted to ARCADIA group but they do hacve leaases with many High Street brqnds in distresss and shops at risk of permament closure.

The Wayfairers Arcadia in Soutport is a white elephant its 50 stores mostly empty.

[russman] 06/2/2021 10:02

Value trader in a bad market.

[nickrl] 05/2/2021 14:31

debsowner the 2nd article interesting especially the view that despite distressed sale doesn't see the banks enforcing covenants on borrowers in 2021.