Panther Securities Share Discussion Threads

[debsdowner] 01/12/2020 11:21

Directors not buying but maybe they cannot due while refinancing has concluded.

However the High Street is being decimated and as such there is a surplus of commercial property and asset prices will fall further leaving refinancing at less attractive terms.

[hennessy trades] 25/11/2020 17:46

Year end 20 will be interesting. Revaluation on the horizon?

[ntv] 25/11/2020 17:38

Haven't visited lately
From memory there is a deal to cut interest costs already in place
I think it kicks in in Dec 21 from memory
Glad i sold near the recent top

[russman] 22/11/2020 08:28

perloff has stashed away some development sites over the years. Takes years to pull the jigsaw pieces together. in at cost or NRV.

[debsdowner] 20/11/2020 10:55

No point buying in until they have refinanced and there is clarity on interest charges.

With bricks and mortar stores closing almost daily the banks may want a higher interest rate.

[topvest] 09/11/2020 19:50

Perloff will keep it listed in my view. He's old and rich enough. This is his shop window on the world and he loves it!

I agree that he has made some mistakes on the shop front, but he certainly buys cheap so there is normally a margin of safety.

Debt wise I think they will be fine.

I'm on the sidelines at the moment, but will probably buy back in at some point once we get a tad more clarity.

[hennessy trades] 09/11/2020 18:13

Yes albeit a non exec. I'm thinking about young blood to take the company forward although as you say going private might be the way.

[trcml] 09/11/2020 16:40

Bryan Galan is still on the board - property man through and through!

[hennessy trades] 09/11/2020 11:47

Would be an option to take private whikst the shares are so low. It's going to need some cash injection to convert the sites at the end of their life so I can see long term planning situations and sales of non income producing sites to reduce debt. Mr Perloff is so key to the whole operation. I dont think there are any property men on the board anymore. Companies house shows two other directors listed but they are shown as leaving a long time ago to either retire or set up their own ventures.

[hybrasil] 09/11/2020 10:54

I think their debt level is a concern.
Interest only 3 times covered.
I have always enjoyed mr perloffs ramblings but I think he never saw this massive shift to an online life.
No bricks and mortar store can compete.
He ll probably take it private

[russman] 26/10/2020 05:07

Had a look around some of PNS local retail properties.
The high st was pretty bleak with increasing vacancies.
Some adjoining development potential but retail will be a drag.

[topvest] 25/10/2020 18:30

I sold out but I am still watching a re-entry. I hope Panther will survive and prosper, but now is not the right time for a re-entry in my view. Of course, Mr Perloff is getting on a bit and so there is the retirement risk out there as well. I guess he could work on for a decade or two, as he doesn’t seem the retiring type, but he’s so fundamental to Panther.

[debsdowner] 25/10/2020 17:25

The Beales in Southport wont make a hotel site its not big enough, he has made a mistake with the purchase of Wayfarers. It could be a white Elephant for years. The remaining tenants apart from a barbers at the front will probably leave now leaving the arcade empty.

I think Panther have another shopping centre it purchased a few years ago I suspect that is a white elephant as well.

There will be more write-downs imo I would await final results before I took a stake and see how bad things have become.

[hennessy trades] 25/10/2020 15:00

The ex Beales might be a potential hotel site which could be merged with the arcade to create an interesting entrance or lobby for the hotel. Will cost a lot to convert assuming there is future demand. On Panthers website they have another large vacant retail unit near to wayfarers with a very high rateable value. Looks as if it has been vacant a long time. Obviously any conversion cost will raise panther base cost massively. I was thinking of getting in new the shares are way below 200p. I'll think about it as there may be further to drop.

[topvest] 25/10/2020 14:35

He's normally got his eye on an alternative use scenario I suspect, but I agree that Panther have been too exposed to technologically obsolescent retail shops.

[debsdowner] 25/10/2020 12:15

Wayfarers Arcade



"With the adjoining properties in Lord Street, which are currently occupied by Beales
Department store, the freehold properties contain approximately 75,000 sq ft of retail and
ancillary space on a site of about 2 acres most of the property being listed. To the rear of the
site there are two car parks, for the use of customers of the store and arcade and a separate
warehouse rented by Beales.
The properties produce a gross income of approaching £650,000 of which approximately one
third is derived from the Beales department store. The Arcade contains forty eight units of
which eight are vacant with a potential extra value of £85,000 per annum.
Panther has a close relationship with Beales and knows that this is a profitable store. The
price paid for Lord Street Properties (Southport) Limited, which has no debts, will be
approximately £4,500,000 including costs and was paid out of Panther’s free cash generated
from previously announced property disposals.



The price paid appeared cheap at the time but the Pedlar family will be laughing now, shopping habits have changed and the coronavirus made things even worse.. Panther was hoping to achieve a rental circa £750k on their £4.5 million investment, which would have yielded in the double digits now its not paying the interest on its bank loan for this purchase.

[debsdowner] 25/10/2020 12:03

HT

When they bought the Wayfair Arcade in Southport more than 75% full from memory a high yield investment which they said would be higher when it was full.

Well I was there yesterday and most the tenants now left in fact there were only two small units and a coffee/eatery left on the ground floor and barbers at the front. Of 48 units in total only 8 remain rented.

Wayfarers not only lost their two anchor tenants in Beales and Multiyork 40 units been lost in total!

The rents payable wont pay the service charges and interest on money borrowed and could be like that for years.

The image of "bursting with gifts" is a deception its almost empty.



Panther have other shopping centres and I suspect they have lots of empty units as well. No way can a shopping Arcade be converted to offices or rented flats.

[hennessy trades] 23/10/2020 15:02

I think Mr Perloff has always played with a straight bat, but the accounts dont mention how many units they have vacant and to let and what their rates exposure is. I would have expected a bigger write down in the values in the fullness of time. Shares were at 175p last time I looked and with a loan renewal coming up maybe he will consider taking it private at some point.

[debsdowner] 23/10/2020 13:21

HT

Perloff been economic with the facts and that is causing concern for investors. Property overvalued in the UK and more so for commercial!

[hennessy trades] 21/10/2020 16:10

Note their policy and stance on rents. But how many tenants were on concession and repayment arrangements. This is not clear in the accounts. What is their exposure to vacant business rates?

[debsdowner] 21/10/2020 15:40

The high Street is all about just finished now but as a poster previously said conversion to offices and shops is very costly.

John Lewis is renting off the top floor of one of its biggest stores but the market limited due to excess offices now with more people working from home.

They are bound to lose more Tennant's and interest costs on their loans may be well covered but interest costs not cheap.


What struck me about the report was the dividend not certain now and as such it's affected the share price.


The market doesn't like propery hence the share price still in s downtrend.

[russman] 17/10/2020 06:19

their market is going to get worse i.e small high st tenants.
still seems to be picking up small bargains.
sales and developments have slowed.

[topvest] 16/10/2020 19:35

Always an interesting read: he's a legend! Unfortunately, I am no longer a holder, but will hopefully re-enter at some point.

[nickrl] 16/10/2020 18:54

His ramblings were quite muted compared to previous report but he still manages to take 4 of the 20 pages on it.

Taking an aggressive stance on unpaid rents at pretty well the whole outstanding amount albeit they hope not to use it.

They also have expensive loans (7% & 6.58%) which are due to be refinanced in 21 so potential upside there on interest costs.