Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bit coin] 14/12/2021 11:43

great news..............is it £13 or $13 dollars, Aye!

[johnswan193] 14/12/2021 11:31

Brilliant thanks Scot. Canaccord note + substantiating the previous "$1.2bn uplift on success from any one of eight independent targets" claim. I believe that should cover everything outstanding. Good stuff.

[scot126] 14/12/2021 11:13

Dear All - can confirm Canaccord upgrade as detailed above. More to follow.

[total return] 14/12/2021 10:27

From a friend. I understand that Canaccord have produced a research note which ups the target share price from 170p to 200p. It mentions a risked valuation of 437p a share and unrisked at over £13. It suggests "that is the ultimate prize for the company".

[bobbiedazzler] 14/12/2021 09:37

Pictet today projecting central case of $95 a barrel for Brent at end 2022, and a 25 per cent chance of an upside case at $110. The story of inelastic non-OPEC supply seems to be spreading so they also argue the chance that there will be no spare physical capacity end 2022 (like eg Goehring on Wall Street). A very good backdrop for good flow tests and a farm-in or sale for Pantheon.

[winner66] 14/12/2021 09:27

Bit-coin yes absolutely!! There’s a number of interesting aspects to the document. Not least the editor has numerous institutions as clients , that subscribe to his research. It’s a great read and cuts out all the waffle .

[bit coin] 14/12/2021 09:19

thanks winner, I just noticed this para which looks interesting;

The status of the farm out is also referred to again in the fundraise placing announcement, which states that “Farm out discussions with one party remain ongoing.” Separate to the company’s disclosures, based on "market intelligence I understand that all the oil majors are interested in PANR", so I would expect the potential farm out partner to be a major player that is able to pay a significant premium to acquire PANR’s assets in time.

[winner66] 14/12/2021 07:57

hxxps://valuesits.substack.com/p/a-milestone-and-pantheon-resources

[chris0805] 14/12/2021 07:41

Really surprised not to see an *F* TR1My basic maths says that the increased number of shares since the raise completed should trigger a TR1 even if they stopped selling? Still perhaps they are buying now? LolGLA C

[madd_rip] 13/12/2021 23:57

We shall see, Will history repeat I wonder?Pity we weren't still at 94p though.

[bobbiedazzler] 13/12/2021 23:25

There was quite a rise between the fundraise last year and first results

[madd_rip] 13/12/2021 22:09

Mine too. And the share price is just relatively static, I take it this will be the same pattern until any results are divulged. What was with all those 100 trades today?Was someone going nuts on the buy button?

[sirmark] 13/12/2021 20:04

Mine has arrived in my Hargreaves account

[wee jimmy] 13/12/2021 19:26

Placing stock from Primary Bid showing up in my Interactive Investor account this evening.

[johnswan193] 13/12/2021 18:51

I agree Spangle.

[spangle93] 13/12/2021 18:28

Johnswan etc

Just a different opinion.... The way I interpret this statement "This funding allows the Company to fully execute our 2022 programme to assess eight targets across three wells - four targets with the reentry of Talitha #A, and two targets each at Theta West and at our Alkaid 2H development well adjacent to the Dalton Highway and TAPS".

... is based on the sand bodies shown in the 3D projection in the most recent presentation, i.e. they will cross (and test) 8 of these sand bodies in 3 wells.

Note that it doesn't say "independent" targets, or "unique" or "different" targets

So in Talitha, there is Lower Theta West, Upper Theta West, SMS, SMD
In Theta Wast there is Lower Theta West, Upper Theta West
In Alkaid SMD and Alkaid

[johnswan193] 13/12/2021 17:52

POS - not suggesting the rest is worth zero.

Like I said, commercial success to shareholders has to involve at least one of LBFF and SMD B.

Point is I can get comfortable that the risked value of those two is substantially higher than current market cap, even without accounting for anything else.

The everything else I see as a scatter of comparatively much lower value items that could add a bonus to the two mentioned, but none of which would likely result in significant commercial success for shareholders on standalone basis.

Also as mentioned I have issues with the recoverable values attributed to SMD A&C, SFS and Kuparuk (which does not form part of this season). Hopefully management will do another webinar to go through these and clarify best estimates.

UBFF could be assessed similarly to LBFF, but would result in additional 12p of risked - a bonus.

[probabilityofsuccess] 13/12/2021 17:32

Johnswan - could you clarify the following statement please in the context of the rest of your post.

“Everything else a bonus”

What cos do you attribute to your “everything else a bonus” statement?

If zero, then there is no “everything else” is there?

If greater then zero, please could you quantify (broken down please, as you did with SMD AND LBFF).

Thanks.

[cezuan] 13/12/2021 16:03

@Johnswan But the drillings aren't only about the COS, but also about our trading multiple, or? Say we're trading at 70/372 or 70/170 whichever valuation you pick.

Most oil small caps have a market cap roughly equalling their reserves and the buyer risk, the residual oil commercialization risk (other zones, more tests, external expert) post this winter shouldn't leave out 4/5ths of our sp/valuation trading multiple, or?

Since most of PANR's past spikes were post drilling, I'd say that one can expect "significant upside" after any individual drilling (that's not overshadowed by bad news), because we have a lot of room to make up just within that multiple.

Even valuing buyer risk at 30% we should be up almost 200% atm, e.g.

@Johnswan You say: you think PANR's current value is far below 300p. Where do you disagree? Success %, oil, relevance of both?

[johnswan193] 13/12/2021 16:00

No Neddies, I do not see a risked valuation anywhere near £3, and expect the engaged farmout partners didn't either. But I am comfortable in taking the view that it lies materially north of current market cap. COS very subjective but it'll be interesting at end of season to assess the actual success rate from 8 targets. 60-70% COS on each (if they were all independent of each other) suggests we should succeed with 5 being commercially successful. If it's just one and it's the LBFF then I'll be happy.

Here is a risked valuation I'm fairly comfortable with.

SMD B - risked $540m
200m @ $3 x 30% COS = $180m
200m @ $6 x 30% COS = $360m

LBFF - risked $720m
1200m @ $3 x 20% COS

Total risked - $1260m = £955m @ 789m shares fully diluted = 121p.

Everything else a bonus, but ultimate commercial success for shareholders has to involve one of the above coming in.

[neddies] 13/12/2021 15:51

So JS post 20448. Are you saying you are sufficiently satisfied a valuation plus £3 is realistic? if so a contrarian poster offering a 'buy & hold' investment opinion.

That is good to read and demonstrates how far on we have moved since funding news landed

[astralvision] 13/12/2021 15:28

I'd be quite happy with a valuation of £3.72 today, or tomorrow come to that!

[johnswan193] 13/12/2021 15:05

Good link Bodog/Astral.

I think that model is much better than Rabbits in that the COS are more realistic (30%, but I would also accept 20%) and it assigns a premium to what can be developed from the highway (though mgmt. have already said only half of the SMD B 400m could be developed from there).

Again it fact checks Scot's "any one of 8 horizons would result in additional $1.2bn" claim. Only two zones result in such an outcome on success - SMD B and LBFF.

As Michaels said, Leonis is gone so remove that.

Kuparuk they said would have lower recoverables than initially thought - personally I value that at nothing for now.

Slope Fan System - weren't we due a resource update on this? I expect if they still felt it was as high as 300m we'd have heard more by now, but happy to wait for the next update. Question mark over it currently for me.

SMD A&C look on the high side.

Overall it comes down to SMD B and LBFF, nothing else on its own would result in significant upside IMO.

[astralvision] 13/12/2021 15:05

Couldn't see Leonis on his SOTP analysis, shouldnt think it makes much difference?

[michaelsadvfn] 13/12/2021 14:34

He has included Leonis in his valuation but PANR relinquished it.