Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[probabilityofsuccess] 09/12/2021 15:36

🤣 nice one rabito

[probabilityofsuccess] 09/12/2021 15:35

Exactly cezuan, exactly (and it’s not unintentional, because if it was, there would be clarifications and apologies - i.e. less ego)

[rabito79] 09/12/2021 15:31

I wish there was a way I could lock in profits above 78p. If only us shareholders had a way of doing that..... wait a minute.

[cezuan] 09/12/2021 15:21

@michael yes, but most people are taking verbal shortcuts here at a loss for understandability xD

[michaelsadvfn] 09/12/2021 15:18

To state the bondholders make ‘at least 20% in interest’ is quite misleading when omitting to add that it will be 20% over a 5 year period, non?

[goforgold1] 09/12/2021 15:15

GET IN DVRG THE NEXT BIG RISE COMIMG NEWS DUE NEWS DUE UP 4p already

[cezuan] 09/12/2021 15:14

y @john. that should be priced in now. the bonds by themselves ofc have the dilutive effect, but that has already happened. (again ignoring early buybacks)
my point was: it needn't matter now if they convert or not (except for selling pressure). Ofc the larger the share price when they do, the more money we lose which is why I understand some that found the 65p and the 78 somewhat low/bargains.
yes @ngm, 55^^

[ngms27] 09/12/2021 15:13

It's $55m debt not $95 ;)

However I've seen these before stifel a share price over the shorter term (deliberate spelling mistake).

In this case success this Winter would blow the doors off and I expect every CB would have sold into the good news in short order.

[johnswan193] 09/12/2021 15:13

Cezuan, as soon as it converts its exactly the same as a placing done at 78p.

[cezuan] 09/12/2021 15:09

@ngms But the bond's dilution need not have any effect on the share price
The bonds/debt enter PANR's balance sheet as a liability since everybody assumes that PANR will spend all the 55 million it now receives as cash, leaving the debt. That should devalue the market cap by 55 million. As the bond holders convert and the share price increases that debt decreases since PANR gets the bonds back w/o paying for them and we get at least 55m market cap back.

Granted there might be additional selling pressure (40m shares), but it's not a simple dilutive effect.
Effectively the bonds are like an immediate equity raise that should be priced in now. (Ignoring farmout and all early buybacks.)

[ngms27] 09/12/2021 15:04

I'd agree Farallon and the bond will both impart negative pressure on the share price, which is why I didn't like the bond issue. I'd have preferred straight equity.

CB's are effectively free options for the boys, greasing their sticky palms.

[probabilityofsuccess] 09/12/2021 14:59

They could johnswan, but if 100% was raised through equity, who’s to say that those holders wouldn’t decide to sell at or below 78p (but above 65p), thereby putting a potential resistance at any given price. Get what you’re saying but not sure of its relevance/difference vs. the full equity scenario?

EDIT: same applies to ngms’ comment immediately below.

Maybe seek positives not negatives people!

[michaelsadvfn] 09/12/2021 14:58

Non-trading Agreement: Bondholders agree not to sell Shares nor engage
in any short sale transactions in Shares during
any relevant calculation period

...not sure of the bounds of a ‘relevant calculation period’ coz i’m a bit fick.

[cezuan] 09/12/2021 14:58

@michael The bonds pay 4% annually for 5 years. Ignoring risk free rates, inflation rate, early repurchases, early conversions etc., then the present value of the bonds is the total interest it pays, i.e. 20%.

[michaelsadvfn] 09/12/2021 14:46

The 20% risk free is in the interest payments or when they convert.

The interest on $55m remains at 4%. How do you arrive at 20%?

If they convert 5% ($2.75m) after 3 months @ 78p and the share price is e.g. 80p how have they made 20%? (it could be 50p or 150p also!)

[johnswan193] 09/12/2021 14:42

It'll be interesting to find out the frequency of conversions, particularly if and when the share price rises above 78p. Am I right to assume the holder can just sit selling into any rise knowing they can convert at any time at 78p and lock in the profit? *If* that's the case then possible the convertibles are fully offloaded into the market prior to drill results, even without a farm out partner having to get involved. Effectively an additional staggered placing at 78p (with the convertible holder pocketing whatever they can achieve above that level). That coupled with Farallon's presumed continued selling flags potential for a lot of resistance above 78p, and may prevent the £1+ pre-drill people are expecting or hoping for.

[marktitan] 09/12/2021 13:51

scot126 question?."Of the 103m shares held by CHONS, I *think* the Farallon equity stake comprises approx 68m shares." s." and 50m of that stake has to be held back for the option conversion by GBP shareholders, correct? (if any one has a plus1 coupon to spare? thanks in advance). To my mind the key to the CB is retaining 100% at this early under valued stage. Who do you think understands these assets better ? our massively experienced NS technical experts or a fund management company. ? Moreover although we may not have consummated a farm in we seem pretty confident its in the works.

[ngms27] 09/12/2021 13:45

The 20% risk free is in the interest payments or when they convert.

Downside is all but zero as PANR still have to pay the premium i.e. $50m in 5 years if the bonds aren't converted. Whether this is shares or cash is a moot point as it still has to be $50m worth.

So unless absolutely everything fails the CB holders make easy peezy money, with potential to make materially more in the upside case if the shares jump materially higher.

Better than having equity.

[dhb368] 09/12/2021 13:22

Have to agree ngms about 20243. Why so many upvotes?

RE your 20275
The other thing they don't get is that bondholders make at least 20% risk free and potentially much more in the upside case. - How do you get to 20% risk free? Where does the 20% come from and how is any of it risk free?

In the downside case PANR would have to pay in shares the full $50m which could entail large dilution and cede control to Convertible Bond Holders, which is nearly what happened at HUR and was only stopped by court action.

Cede control? How did you work that out?

[ngms27] 09/12/2021 13:19

It's amazing how post 20243 is factually incorrect yet has 28 recs. It's even more amazing that scot126 hasn't been on to insist on corrections, or is it...

[michaelsadvfn] 09/12/2021 13:14

jonswan1939 Dec '21 - 12:40 - 20280 of 20285
0 5 2
Seems like Michaels has taken too many stupid pills this morning. Embarrassing.

Not as embarrassing as getting caught out writing rubbish blogs though is it?

[ngms27] 09/12/2021 13:11

Sale of the century :)

My only criticism would be Alkaid funding after success at Talitha and Theta West would have been less dilutive...But funding now is less risk as Alkaid will be the fail back if Talitha and Theta West are written off.

[dan de lion] 09/12/2021 13:06

If this winter we prove up the various zones at Talitha and at Theta West, plus, go onto flow commercial quantities of oil at Alkaid, then, only 15.5% dilution for all that, will be seen as a fantastic bargain.

IMHO

[rabito79] 09/12/2021 12:44

POS, some people are never happy.