Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 20/11/2021 07:24

Rabito79, why what did I say at 20p?

I didn't sell any so really would like to know what you are accusing me of?

[references] 19/11/2021 23:18

It seems to me that the company is finding itself over a barrel on account of needing this funding for the drilling season quite quickly now. The potential farm-in companies know this and so are exploiting the quickening timeline to get a share of the assets at a bigger discount. I suspect that the move in Pantheon’s share price this last few days following the loan story means some in the market now believe management will have to resort to a placing as an alternative to get the cash in hand. Let’s see. So long as the share issue price isn’t at too poor a discount to here. All IMHO. Just my thoughts, and bound to be wrong!

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 19:51

Thank you. You too.

[rabito79] 19/11/2021 19:47

Have embarrassed myself before ngms and I am sure I will do it again, don't worry unlike some I am perfectly comfortable being wrong.We also seem to differ in how we show deep respect for people, but I could well be wrong on that one also. One thing for sure is I am glad I listened to Tele at 20p and not you. Don't worry you will always have Hurricane, sorry forgot you don't dwell on the past lol.

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 19:17

Yep I’m afraid we’re going to have to beg to differ on everything you’ve said there. Have a nice weekend.

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 19:12

What’s ‘wrong’?

So, you acknowledge there are other risk factors. Tick

You also acknowledge because they are unknowns, we don’t know their detail but think they could have a negative impact. Tick

Question then - do you want to be informed about what they are, or do you want to remain ignorant of them? If the latter, that’s your prerogative, but I’m suggesting knowing about them and being able to asses their impact CAN ONLY BE A GOOD THING in terms of being more comfortable about how YOU feel about YOUR holding.

I mean this with the most sincerity - think about it differently, and you’ll become more comfortable with the situation because you are more informed about whether to hold, buy or sell. The bottom line is, you now have more control of your situation than you had before because there is less uncertainty nagging at you questioning if you are doing the right thing.

Maybe we’ll have to beg to differ on this johnswan, but at least take a step back and reflect on it. Knowing what you now know IS A GOOD THING - see it as that and you’ll feel more comfortable.

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 18:54

Wrong. I have said on many occasions that the longer we leave it to get the deal done the more we expose ourselves to other risk factors, which is exactly what the unknown unknowns are.

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 18:50

There’s uncertainty in everything johnswan, I too am surprised you’ve written that last sentence. Based on virtually all your previous posts, I would have thought you, more than any other, should recognise there are unknown unknowns. Now you know one more previous unknown, take comfort from it - it gives you a different view on managing your emotions.

[ngms27] 19/11/2021 18:46

Rabito79, your just embarrassing yourself now.Time moves on as does news and reasons for the share price to move. Like a lot of posters you don't get perspective and dwell on the past and think something said nearly a year ago in the knowledge then applies now. A good investor is always updating views based on news flow.

I do indeed deeply respect Telemachus for his industry knowledge, the best I've come across (I'm not saying this lightly, it's genuine kudos) but the thing you forget is that doesn't necessarily make him a good investor in this sector. I'm not saying he's not, but there's more to being successful in this sector than being close to the action. Mount Tiede in my opinion is the single best poster on this sector WITHOUT being an industry technical expert.

Sometimes you have to get into helicopter mode and take account of other factors. Just saying.

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 18:40

Rabito, of course I am aware, but expected the management team were too, and that everything would have been done in plenty of time to effectively eliminate that risk. And maybe they have done just that. But it doesn’t change the fact that the market did not like the RNS, for all the reasons stated. I ruled out supply chain risks on the basis that we had so much time to get organised. Perhaps that was naive (though I do not recall a post from anybody else alluding to this risk pre-announcement). I did not read that RNS and conclude that supply chain risks are no longer an issue. Maybe others did, I didn’t. And that’s the problem, the announcement added uncertainty where there was little or no uncertainty previously.

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 18:36

Hi johnswan - I think you need to review how you think about risk and uncertainty then. It is irrelevant that you didn’t know about it, you knowing about it doesn’t impact it’s probability or impact. There was a risk and the BoD have looked to mitigate it (and I note you agree with their action). Logically, therefore, you SHOULD be more comfortable.

You are effectively saying because you have more info you are more worried - if you change the way you think about it, you may have a different perspective? As a generalism, information is key to allaying worry because worry comes from uncertainty and information helps provide more certainty (whether that makes a situation ‘better’ or ‘worse’ from an individual’s perspective)

[rabito79] 19/11/2021 18:25

Johnswan I am amazed how you label others 'naive' and yet admit to not being aware of the global supply chain issues across multiple sectors.I don't know any company that would guarantee there will be no further supply chain issues in the near term, let alone commit to such wording in an RNS and expect it to get approved by the NOMAD. The only thing dangerous about these boards are the fuelling of the already inflated ego's of some posters. You have a very short memory if you believe that a share price reaction in anyway confirms if an RNS is fundamentally positive or negative. Was the market right when it drove the share price to below twenty pence in light of the Talitha results? These same results have since taken the share price to 90p plus and updated prediction of a raise at 70p from Will it flow/NGMS. I think this is ~200-300% higher than his post Talitha cash raise target. This from a man who in his pursuit of contrarianism accused another poster 'who he respects' of market manipulation and indeed was quick to throw the same poster under the bus regards his Theta West resource size estimates (despite having made similar predictions himself).If people want to pat themselves on the back for predicting short term moves in the share price then good luck to them. I am surprised that their unbridled success in their chosen industries, or their correct predictions of a binary outcome on other AIM oilers is not enough for them.

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 18:20

Great post Winner and I appreciate and respect your honesty. What's done is done, and at least they've taken the right action (in mitigating the supply risk). I get its a small team and their expertise lies outside of PR, but going forward I hope they'd learn a lesson from this and think a lot more carefully, and seek better advice, prior to making market announcements.

[dhb368] 19/11/2021 18:16

I think you have hit the nail squarely on the head with the following johnswan193.

"The recent rise felt like a rush before the imminent funding announcement. As soon as the market learned that announcement was not so imminent....it was enough to halt momentum and put the share price into a swift reverse."

My initial reaction to the RNS was that it signalled a delay in any announcement on funding and it has clearly killed any FOMO momentum.

On the 15th the Alaska DNS advised "any operator planning to construct snow and ice reads begin prepacking operations as soon as possible" due to exceptional snow conditions, so it makes sense to get the ball rolling with suppliers but the loan suggests that PANR didn't have much operating cash, or at least enough, and that will always make some nervous.

[winner66] 19/11/2021 18:14

I have to say I hate to admit it but the fact is that RNS has caused huge uncertainty in investors minds . I was wrong to look only at the positive aspect and with hindsight certainly hoped the obvious negative would be ignored and just put down to compliance. But that’s not the case , other companies to not say things twice , it goes out like a warning , horrendous PR and not for the first time . Lots of good work undone .
However in spite of that confidence will return and the price will rise

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 17:53

I'm not more comfortable because I hadn't previously considered the risk of supply chain issues (outside of securing the rig, which we already knew happened). I (incorrectly) expected any supply related issues would have already been taken care of. Their mitigating action has clearly reduced the risk of operations being impacted, but it wasn't and isn't clear to me that the supply chain risk to operations is now at or near zero (which is what I had considered it to be). I personally think that uncertainty *may* be a contributing factor to the share price weakness we've seen. If it's bothering me, then possible it's bothering the market too.

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 17:37

Another way of looking at that johnswan is that the/any supply chain problems existed prior to and independent of the rns (it’s just you/we may have been unaware of them) and the BoD have acted to mitigate that.

As such, you should be MORE comfortable now than prior to the rns.

As a risk professional you get that, right? Before there was a risk, albeit unknown that could have had a huge impact. Now there is a known risk with a mitigating action. Net, that’s a good thing and provides more certainty.

[cezuan] 19/11/2021 17:00

@Johnswan I agree with that! The RNS probably stimulated profit taking for several reasons.

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 16:59

POS - no, I did not sell any shares. I could lie and say I did, particularly after the share price turned blue after the initial drop, but that wouldn't be true. Trading is not my style. I remain comfortable for now (albeit less comfortable than before) with the longer term outlook, even though I felt and still feel that the RNS was a mistake. I am slightly bothered by the supply chain issues referred to. Maybe I shouldn't be, but the thoughts of not being able to complete all operations before end of the season (again) doesn't sit well with me. Hopefully the loan has been enough to ensure that doesn't happen and nothing else supply related comes up.

[bchoco] 19/11/2021 16:54

hxxps://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/24208964.pdf

[johnswan193] 19/11/2021 16:51

Cezuan - impossible to quantify, but it resulted in a shift in momentum to the down side, which coincided with the fall in POO. Without the RNS the share price may have been able to resist better. The recent rise felt like a rush before the imminent funding announcement. As soon as the market learned that announcement was not so imminent, coupled with the "no guarantees" messages and references to supply issues (whether misinterpreted or not), it was enough to halt momentum and put the share price into a swift reverse.

[cezuan] 19/11/2021 16:43

@johnswan Not taking sides here, but how much of the 15% (?) do you attribute to the RNS?

Since PANR has been trading in line with WTI and the US oil sector which are both down >10% over the same period, I think the RNS' relevance is overstated.

Besides that, I agree, I think people underestimante how much a farm out partner would solidify the existence of real buying interest in PANR's reserves in the current climate. At least until the reserve valuation gets upgraded, but even still after that.

[rafthorney] 19/11/2021 16:42

Why do some of you even give them oxygen!

[probabilityofsuccess] 19/11/2021 16:41

So, johnswan - if you are calling all that out and arguing you have good judgement and are honest, did you sell any shares as a result of your assessment of the RNS? If yes, please be HONEST and tell us when and at what price and, if not, please be HONEST in explaining the misalignment between your GOOD JUDGEMENT and your actions. Nothing to hide.