Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[padamster] 19/12/2022 11:42

Haha Big Dazz trying to talk down the share. You will soon be toast and burnt for that matter

Be very careful

[swiftnick] 19/12/2022 10:00

Great post Huntman.But it's not even as bad as that. The next quarterly conversion won't be $3m, it's actually only $2.842m ($2.45m capital and $0.392m interest). With each passing quarter as more capital has been repaid the interest component gets less and less. The quarter following will be $2.8175m.As you say, every conversion to date has been above the 65p fund raising price. And remember, the coupon on these bonds is just 4%.

[mlf51] 19/12/2022 09:22

An excellent explanation it has made the situation much clearer for me and thank you. Sadly it will mean nothing to truant and his cohorts as they are not interested in any discussion that doesn't suit their agenda which is to find fault with anything and everything.

[huntman] 19/12/2022 09:13

Morning all. For what its worth I thought that a simple analysis of the so-called ‘death spiral’ nonsense might be useful.

PANR pay a total of $3m each quarter in principal and interest under the terms of a $55m convertible bond facility announced on 7 December 2021. PANR can pay in cash or a 10% discount to the 3 day average share price (it’s a little more sophisticated than that but that is essentially the model.

To date every payment has been made at a conversion price higher than the original 65p placing price, so as olderwiser2 rightly observes below, to date the money raised by the convertible is on less dilutive terms for the company (and shareholders) than a scenario where this $55m were raised in equity at 65p. Less dilution all round. So far, great job PANR board.

So where does the ‘death spiral’ argument come from?

Imagine, in 3 months’ time when the next payment is owed, the share price is at 55p, the payment under the convertible is still around $3m (£2.5m) and so 5 million shares at 50p (approx.) need to be issued (rather than 3.85m had the money been raised at 65p in the original fundraise). This would be an additional 1.15 million shares being issued. There are 778m shares in issue so the additional 1.15m shares would represent additional dilution of 1.15m/778m = 0.15%, which mathematically would move the share price from 55p to 54.9p.

Imagine a disaster scenario where the share price is at 20p in 3 months time. Here the quarterly repayment would be just shy of 14m shares, meaning additional dilution when compared to a 65p issue price of 10.15m/778m = 1.3%. This would move the share price from 20p to 19.74p.

This is not a death spiral, its not even a mild sniffle.

[mlf51] 19/12/2022 06:16

I think you'll find he's changed sides now so you may want to make it up with him.

[specialistwasagypsey] 18/12/2022 21:41

The mug pro is calling £1.50p 🤡😂

[specialistwasagypsey] 18/12/2022 21:38

Pro was found out over TXP

[mlf51] 18/12/2022 20:28

he purpose of the long-term pilot production test of the Alkaid interval is to gather data necessary to understand the characteristics of production from that reservoir. This includes determining the initial production rate, the production decline curve and the Gas to Oil Ratio. This information will then be used to model the potential commerciality of the project, optimize design of production facilities for long-term production, determine the amount of associated gas produced with the oil and identify the most efficient uses for that gas. The hearing will allow the AOGCC commissioners to gather information about the project to determine the length of the testing program and thus when the project should be considered to be in regular production

[adxwasere] 18/12/2022 14:21

https://twitter.com/Adz_UK22/status/1604480831598329857?t=xnhTI5mzqaNRVt-NbRBi1g&s=19

[adxwasere] 18/12/2022 14:21

https://twitter.com/Adz_UK22/status/1604480831598329857?t=xnhTI5mzqaNRVt-NbRBi1g&s=19

[rabito79] 18/12/2022 08:51

Well Schlumberger, LKA, Baker Hughes also seem to think they know more than Halliburton.Perhaps you don't read RNSs just like more 'astute' investors like JakNife. Who as well as missing the flow rates in the Schlumberger report missed them in LKA reports also. LKA modelled NPVs and peak field flow rates (of 30,000bls/day) for Alkaid which one can assume must have been built up from modelling flow from individual wells. A peak field flow rate (of 90,000bls/day) was also given for the SMD. Although this admittedly was pre Talitha A.It's pretty clear to everyone bar him that we understand there is the potential for a death spiral convertible but Pantheon's deal can't really be called one until the death spiral scenario plays out.

[adxwasere] 18/12/2022 00:51

Talking in third person again I see. lol

[specialistwasagypsey] 17/12/2022 23:08

Down boy down 🐩

Rabid dog 🐕

Thank you Prozac for losing all the punters serious cash 💵

😢

[adxwasere] 17/12/2022 22:55

https://twitter.com/Adz_UK22/status/1604248750091796480?t=teDg9Gb3fjeV_fGYJgeEDw&s=19

[adxwasere] 17/12/2022 22:52

https://twitter.com/Adz_UK22/status/1604183161541476353?t=sUvZNWgmeMD7bX0XsPqrtw&s=19Still burning bright. xXx