Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 03/3/2022 08:15

Forwood - ref brokers...

I suggest that most would be guided by, if not directly apply, the views of recognised bodies like the EIA, which notes

"We expect Brent prices will average $90/b in February as continuing draws in global oil inventories in our forecast keep crude oil prices near current levels in the coming months. However, we expect downward price pressures will emerge in the middle of the year as growth in oil production from OPEC+, the United States, and other non-OPEC countries outpaces slowing growth in global oil consumption. This dynamic leads to rising global oil inventories from 2Q22 through the end of 2023, and we forecast the Brent spot price will fall to an average of $87/b in 2Q22 and $75/b in 4Q22. We expect the Brent price will average $68/b for all of 2023."


Meanwhile, the latest WHI report and valuation notes in the small print assumptions
Long-term oil price: $87/b Brent; $77 realised well-head Alaskan price; inflated at 1% from 2023USD


So, perversely, if they got their pencils out, it might be to mark numbers downwards

[references] 03/3/2022 08:12

Well, in my experience news rarely comes on a Friday.

[michaelsadvfn] 03/3/2022 08:07

Pointless presumption when news could drop tomorrow, non?

[references] 03/3/2022 07:43

No news till Monday presumably.

[forwood] 03/3/2022 03:31

Brent topping $116, approaching highs of 2011/12 as PoO surges due to OPEC inability to pump more and Russian crude being shunned. Our Sp in contrast to most other oils actually fell, which is almost as extraordinary given the recent 20% increase in oil price, and increases pressure here to report progress.

Bloomberg reports: 'Russia accounted for 12% of the world’s total crude exports in 2020 and almost 10% of oil-product shipments. Oil trading giant Trafigura Group tried to sell a cargo of Russia’s flagship Urals grade this week at a record discount to benchmark prices for northwest Europe but found no bidders, highlighting how toxic trade with the country has become. '

Although tempting to think these prices could be temporary, with the US considering Russian oil & gas sanctions (but not doing for fear of the impact on domestic consumers), it's likely buyers will continue to shun Russian oil long past the cessation of hostilities. The fall out from high prices in 2011 lasted a good 3 years, and although causes were different, the underlying constraints on energy supply from whatever source are unlikley to go away in the medium term.

Has anyone worked out the impact on PANR's likely billions barrels? Shouldn't our brokers be revaluing price targets accordingly? It's one thing being conservative about how much oil we've got, but extending that to ultra cautious pricing is missing out on potential feel good factors for holding our shares (something that doesn't seem to trouble 88E!).

Looking forward to reports on commerciality and reserves, the plan to put Alkaid into production is almost as exciting and cannot come fast enough!

[mlf51] 02/3/2022 21:32

What do you think

[wee jimmy] 02/3/2022 20:24

Have PANR got a licence for the Big Kahuna prospect? 😉

[btgman] 02/3/2022 20:20

The sheer size and scale of what Pantheon has means that you have to constantly revisit what we have.

Slope Fan System I have applied similar metrics to other zones and initial conservative valuation for that zone at this time is 34p risked. Given this isn't generally included in current broker valuations this goes straight on top in my view.

We are now getting to the really exciting part of the winter season SMD at Talitha and BFF over at Theta West.

I note the comments that you don't get poor taking a profit but would say if SMD and BFF come in to the numbers previously talked about by Pantheon all those setting the bar at £2 will be gifting their shares away.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[sandcrab2] 02/3/2022 19:06

Absolutely right GG

[gorgeousgeorge01] 02/3/2022 19:01

"As they say, nobody ever got poor taking profits"

True, but they didn't necessarily get rich either, as I know to my repeated cost. When will we learn to let our profits run? I'm going to make a bold prediction that if recent past is prologue, the risk here may well be to the upside. Few wanted Pantheon at 20 pence, still less at 9. They all wanted it at 90 and still more will at 200. It's just the way it is. It's a cracking commodity bull market. I can't believe Chevron. I just can't believe it. Yet there it is. And Pantheon. I've been active in commodity and oil markets for a decade. I can't remember anything like this.

[scot126] 02/3/2022 18:51

Hi Just one more try, post #23734 - good question. Please see RNSs dated 2/3/21 and 8/3/21. Looks to me they felt a "sidetrack RNS" was warranted last year. Same management team so I would have thought same attitude to RNS publication?

Plus, I think there's pretty much universal recognition that PANR 2.0, post the merger with Great Bear in January '19, has adopted a more open and forthcoming strategy when it comes to communicating with shareholders.

To repeat, I believe it's reasonable to infer that the absence of a "sidetrack RNS" means the remediation as described in the most recent RNS has worked. Good stuff.

[probabilityofsuccess] 02/3/2022 17:54

Victory Forwood! No need to explicitly put it in writing anyway, it’s ok.

[forwood] 02/3/2022 17:17

Pos, if you think I'm going to add it to my profile, have a look at my picture!

[scot126] 02/3/2022 17:02

Opinion: If I were the NOMAD, part of whose duty is to follow up companies' most recent RNSs to see if there has been any material "new news" since publication, and I became aware of a sidetrack, IMHO that would trigger a fresh RNS. In my view, a sidetrack would be "material news" in the context of a time-limited drilling season.

Therefore, whilst naturally I cannot be definitive, my experience would strongly suggest the *absence* of a "sidetrack RNS" indicates that actual operations on the ground *have not* diverted from the course of events described in the most recent RNS. QED - the remediation *has* worked and then they're moving on to stimulating and flow testing the BFF Lower at Theta West, the Big Kahuna.

IMO, I reckon we'll hear about the SMD at Talitha #A before we hear anything further from Theta West.

[probabilityofsuccess] 02/3/2022 16:58

Thanks Forwood - I’ll add it to my advfn profile if you add it to yours 😃

[forwood] 02/3/2022 16:49

Pious pompous pos - I getcha, a regrettable and almost serious omission, now rectified :-)

[senttothegallows] 02/3/2022 16:18

Agreed I dont see drilling out cement is a RNS even we are likely to get flow news on SMD first with potential Theta West tagged in that RNS IMHO

[catchingmice] 02/3/2022 16:18

Pro is the biggest 'TOOL' around

[probabilityofsuccess] 02/3/2022 16:15

Exactly johnswan

[johnswan193] 02/3/2022 16:08

There is no delayed news. We were told the issue was expected to be remedied over the course of last week before commencing flow testing. They did not say anything to suggest another announcement would be made to confirm if the work was successful. If it wasn't successful then that news would warrant an RNS.

[arcadian] 02/3/2022 15:51

Pro S

I think that was a sensible move. From my experience delayed news is rarely good although I would probably expect to see an RNS saying that they had solved the problem and were getting on with the testing.

[sirmark] 02/3/2022 15:46

Could be the last 45mins till news !