Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[scot126] 04/3/2022 11:29

I strongly urge readers of this thread to attach your personal discount factor to content posted by john "The Pinnacle" swan193.

This guy may very well work in a hedge fund but he is *NOT* a fund manager or analyst. He is a Risk Manager so is employed in the middle office and, despite his prolific presence on this thread, does NOT have front office education,training and, vitally, experience.

This bloviating cretin told us all the share price had a ceiling of 78p just five weeks ago. And now he's up to the same crystal ball-gazing nonsense again. Staggering.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 04/3/2022 11:26

"Plenty of time for a profit, but if a delay to the SMD offset by successful remedial action at TW can drop the share price by 20%, what impact to you think a failure or further delay at TW would have?"

what do I think? I think the general upward trend remains intact and will remain so until it doesn't. The oil isn't going anywhere. If the company have to revisit Talitha or Theta West for testing next season, then so be it. Plenty of time for a profit!

[cezuan] 04/3/2022 11:21

All write as if it's highly improbable to return to the SMD this season. Is there a reason for that? Don't we still have roughly 1 month winter time that could still make it possible?

The TW operations plan gives time until 15.04.2022 to "rig down and move out" which might imply that they have rented all the equipment until mid April?

[johnswan193] 04/3/2022 11:16

Plenty of time for a profit, but if a delay to the SMD offset by successful remedial action at TW can drop the share price by 20%, what impact to you think a failure or further delay at TW would have?

[gorgeousgeorge01] 04/3/2022 11:13

"All eyes now on TW. It has to deliver and before the season ends. Failure to achieve significantly improved flow rates relative to Talitha could result in an share price crash to 30-40p again. Even an inconclusive outcome that requires revisiting the location next year may well take it back to 50-60p."

Steady on johnswan. It might not be as bad as that! Plenty of time for a profit yet.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 04/3/2022 11:11

"When they informed us during the January webinar they'd announce news "as and when" they clearly meant exactly that."

And that must be acknowledged.

[johnswan193] 04/3/2022 11:05

Some thoughts now that I've had time to digest this mornings news:

1. When you read an RNS like this and end up feeling disappointed, you can be sure this will be reflected by the market. You can try to convince yourself that everything is ok, but you'll still feel uneasy and the market is ruthless. Somebody even downvoted me when I posted before 8am that I expected the price to open in the 100-120p range. It doesn't matter if the announcement opens up with "pleased to provide.."

2. The primary objective of the Talitha well was to test the SMD. The prospect of having to revisit for a third year to achieve that objective is unfortunate, but also incredibly frustrating. I do however believe that they can still tell a lot about this zone from the Alkaid drill given they indicated they expected that half of the resource was recoverable from that location. The BFF testing was supplementary information to indicate potential at TW.

3. SFS results were promising, but difficult to attribute value to this at the moment. Regardless of what resource is put on it by management we still do not know if it can be commercially developed.

4. All eyes now on TW. It has to deliver and before the season ends. Failure to achieve significantly improved flow rates relative to Talitha could result in an share price crash to 30-40p again. Even an inconclusive outcome that requires revisiting the location next year may well take it back to 50-60p.

5. Still confused by the comment about demobilising the rig over the coming weekend. Was the road closure this week due to transport heading towards the site rather than away from the site? Or were they statements from a week ago?

6. Todays RNS said "Over the coming weeks, we will test what the Company believes is a significant oil accumulation after encountering over 950 feet of oil bearing sections in a large Basin Floor Fan system". But the RNS on 15-Feb indicated 200ft for the Upper BFF and 960ft for the Lower BFF. Are they still intending to test the Upper BFF?

[scot126] 04/3/2022 11:01

There's no need to rehabilitate ngms27's absurd "heads I win, tails you lose" character.

I'm not going to debate this further because what's done is done. Folk need to ponder what happens when the best laid plans of mice and men go off piste. A contractor from one of the Big 3 fooooks up royally on the cement job at Theta West. Then there are weather issues and before you know it your planned timelines mean that kit reserved for a specific task at a specific time is no longer available because the schedule has moved too far to the right. Perhaps a massive North Slope operator flexes their muscles and before you know it, where you thought you had 2 pieces of equipment, you only have one....through no fault of your own.

It is what it is. This BoD (especially since the GB merger) is very clear in its communications. They could have sat on this news over the weekend, post the Ukraine/nuclear story of today, but they didn't. When they informed us during the January webinar they'd announce news "as and when" they clearly meant exactly that.

The SMD hasn't disappeared. Rational and logical decision-making sees PANR flow testing the BFF Lower beginning next week. This is by a huuuge margin the largest potential jewel in PANR's crown - fact. If there was only one horizon to be tested all winter, I'd want it to be the BFF Lower.

The fundamentals are intact. Focus now on the BFF Lower at Theta West. GLA

[gorgeousgeorge01] 04/3/2022 11:00

"Could I suggest you all read back ngms’ written word, to get the facts of what he wrote. It’s not as many are remembering - he comments on both fracking units and crew for testing."

No, I realise that. As I say, I wasn't particularly captivated by the specific detail of the discussion. What struck me was the hostility to ANY suggestion of any potential difficulty. It may be that NGMS's comments were so pedantic as to warrant opprobrium. It may also be, and this was the way I took it, that the bulls were unwilling to broach any questioning or scepticism. I thought that was quite telling. I'm certainly not surprised by today's market turn, but there will be some amongst us nursing losses. I've been there and they have my sympathy. They don't ring bells at market tops? I beg to differ.

[probabilityofsuccess] 04/3/2022 10:51

Hi gg (and others). Could I suggest you all read back ngms’ written word, to get the facts of what he wrote. It’s not as many are remembering - he comments on both fracking units and crew for testing.

No criticism of anyone, just better not to guess/risk misremembering, when what was actually written is in black and white.

Look back to 23440 and onwards.

Fundamentally, nothing has changed today, the oil and thesis for SMD remains. Today is a traders day, and an opportunity for those that believe the fundamentals will crystallise in a significant re-rating shorter/medium term.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 04/3/2022 10:38

"There was a discussion about 1 or 2 testing units, the conclusion was, nobody really knew!"

I wasn't particularly captivated by the discussion, but I did note ngms's skepticism. Not *entirely* misplaced as it happens. Also noted was the strength of feeling against him. Blockages and equipment shortages are par for the course - they are to be expected. What I found telling was the attitude of some posters towards ngms as the share price was riding high. He was merely pointing out the obvious, yet was shouted down quite unnecessarily.

You may think him a pedant and perhaps he is on occasion. But sometimes he isn't. That's when what he says is interesting. I was a shareholder with him in Hurricane Energy. A snagged rope sent the share price tumbling 25%. A snagged rope! In fact, there were other problems and all was not well. I am not for a moment suggesting that there is any read across from that company to this. Any comparison or inference from a snagged rope on the North Sea to a blockage on the North Slope would be absurd. And yet, look at the drop in the share price. It pays to be cautious. Pantheon would tell you that themselves.

[bought in] 04/3/2022 10:37

If you examine the Merlin-2 drilling program, there is likely to be plenty of time to revisit SMD this winter and if necessary again in the summer at Alkaid

[carrr595] 04/3/2022 10:22

Morning,

So I think the reaction was somewhat oversold but understandable that anything that isn't completely positive would send it downwards thus triggering automatica sales.

From what I understand, the SMD didn't show water with some light oil which is positive news, however due to the blizzard the fluid caused an issue and needs fixing, any ideas how long that would take ?

I believe the company made the right decision to go to TW and keep their eyes on the prize, a few weeks to wait for the results and hopefully the weather holds out long enough to get back to Talitha. I am sure the BoD will do everything they can to get back, fix and test.


I have a feeling (imo) the share price will recover back to 130 next week once the dust has settled and likely 140 on the cusp of news.

[rabito79] 04/3/2022 10:20

They probably aren't lol. They will be watching so idiot on YouTube telling them they are going to a $1. Interestingly there is information in that release that directly contradicts some of the information Pantheon have released.

[unlikely2] 04/3/2022 10:11

Hi Rabito - they are probably googling "Distal" and "Down Dip".

[rabito79] 04/3/2022 10:05

Some people are still a week away from spudding despite having a gazillion barrels right next to TAPS/Dalton.

[alaric7] 04/3/2022 10:03

last year they announced they were making plans to demobilise the Nordic-Calista on 6 April. on 19 April they announced suspension of all operations. weather conditions permitting there's still quite a bit of time here.

[dan de lion] 04/3/2022 09:56

The big one is the drill rig has gone, now as long as the cold lasts and the Ice road is serviceable, then they could stretch the testing season for another couple of weeks, hopefully?

In fact, as time goes moves on, a pull back to Talitha would make sense!

[sirmark] 04/3/2022 09:44

chessman

I can call it right if I state both heads and tails, it's very easy and I'll be 100% correct all the time... everyone knows the risks..

When you say he called it correctly can you point me to his post that states they will have a blizzard and the frac fluid may need to be changed as I can't find that one.

Or if your referring to the posts that stated they may only have one frac unit whereby a "few" other posters thought that we had two. (personally I didn't give a view on this) then yes that 50/50 call was correct ..however that made no difference to operations (without the hindsight now)as it's clear their plan was always to use that frac unit after the NC rig moved off as we would have completed testing at Talita. No need to waste shareholders money having two frac units when one would have sufficient. (and still maybe the case)


I'm here for the TH and maiden production and ultimately the sale of the company and anything between that is just normal market moves of a E&P in the most harshest conditions on our planet.

GL to our BOD and contractors...keep it up the big prize is still on the table for this season and in just 2 weeks on success this will look like the best opportunity to get in ...if you think you had missed the boat well this is an amazing opportunity to get in cheap IMO

[unlikely2] 04/3/2022 09:38

Nmgs and some others were of the opinion that only one unit was the way to go. I guess even he will be able to compare that with the costs of relaying the ice road next year and remobilising all the equipment, plus the loss of reputation, and having less info to go on when drilling Alkaid 2. Seems like it was not the companies choice, but due market conditions.
We may still be lucky if all goes smoothly at Theta and the weather is kind to us. Reckon the conditions before having to de-mob the various units required will give a wider window than having to de-mob the rig itself.

[dan de lion] 04/3/2022 09:38

There was a discussion about 1 or 2 testing units, the conclusion was, nobody really knew!

[scot126] 04/3/2022 09:34

Don't be a prize chump, chessman2. ngms27 and Prolapse thought the remediation work at Theta West had been unsuccessful. I know it's hard for simpletons like you but do at least make an effort to keep up. Clown.

[total return] 04/3/2022 09:32

Like many on here I believe the share price reaction is massively overcooked.
This technical issue at SMD bears no relation to the prospectivity of this area i.e. it has not affected the likelihood that the formation is as just good as the 3D sesimic and other technical experts have suggested.

I think the share price dip is more a function of geopolitical worries and the fact that a big bull position has been built up since the 65p placing only 3 short months ago.

[hiddendepths] 04/3/2022 09:31

Forced sellers appear to have been cleared out so now the MMs can mark the shares back up (cautiously, just in case there are more!) and make a profit on the shares they acquired on the cheap. Nice work if you can get it!

[swanvesta] 04/3/2022 09:31

I may be out of touch with developments but the company stated last year that although Talitha was drilled at what was thought to be an optimal location for the SMD, it wasn't as good as hoped. From Feb 2021 RNS:

"In Talitha #A, the gross oil bearing reservoir interval encountered at 6,500 ft, was in line with predrill expectations for thickness, featuring 155 ft of interbedded sand and shale, which is positive, however does not indicate an improvement to that of the PS#1 well. "

So not sure why so much value has been put on (still indeterminate) results here.