Pace Plc Share Discussion Threads

[alexmcdonald] 28/10/2016 11:51

I too think that the drop in price has been overdone and we will see it slowly creep back up when the dust settles. Let's see what happens after the Needham event next week.

[1gw] 28/10/2016 09:37

Analyst estimates.

The Arris site has been updated with 7 downward revisions out of the 8 that they track for 2017 (and 4 out of 4 for 2018). The 2017 non-GAAP eps estimates have come down, but not by a huge amount:

$2.97 to $3.31 range (vs $3.00 to $3.35 before the earnings)
$3.13 mean & median (vs $3.19 before the earnings)

Nice progression still being shown with median estimates as follows:
2016: $2.77
2017: $3.13
2018: $3.33

So, choose a year and a multiple.

Incidentally, I note a c. 2% drop in 2017 median estimate, 3% drop in 2018 estimate. Doesn't really stack up against an 8% drop in share price yesterday, does it?

[sikhthetech] 27/10/2016 22:02

ARRIS on track to hit full year guidance


but stock drops 7% in Thursday trading.

[alexmcdonald] 27/10/2016 20:24

Only 14 days this time - but we are also going for 26 days at Christmas!!!!
Both going to New York on QM2.

[bashor] 27/10/2016 20:22

How many months are you away for Alex

[alexmcdonald] 27/10/2016 20:17

I am away again on a cruise at the end of next week and when I return, I expect the price to have recovered back to $29.50. !!!

[sikhthetech] 27/10/2016 18:10

We're still less than a year since we merged...

[andyble] 27/10/2016 18:06

Multichannel :-

“Although there are moving parts, we believe the story remains a good one and the stock offers upside from overblown worries around regulatory changes and cord cutting,” Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold said in a research note issued Thursday.

[1gw] 27/10/2016 17:03

Yes, we're still around 460p-equivalent, which isn't bad in the context of the last few years of Pace. The analysts just got a bit ahead of the curve with their 2016 estimates I think.

I'd be interested to see what the analysts do with their 2017 and 2018 estimates in this round of updates because I would guess the market will start to focus on appropriate multiples of those before too long. The execution risk on the Pace acquisition should be starting to drop out of the equation I would have thought.

[sleepless1] 27/10/2016 16:44

beaubleep, I still thinks it's great in comparison to what would have happened to Pace. Look where we where in June/July. Rgds.,S1.

[alexmcdonald] 27/10/2016 14:36

Buying opportunity for Arris!!!!

[beaubleep] 27/10/2016 14:20

Hold on to your hats, it's not looking good, sub 27

[freddie01] 27/10/2016 10:30

fungus | Alan Ligh



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Perfect in Pink | vividessentials



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[sikhthetech] 27/10/2016 10:20

Transcript from Earnings call.

[bashor] 27/10/2016 00:20

I don't see the call as negative at all, the after hours trading I hope will not show in full, 2017 to me with the tail winds and currency in our favour will be a plus in the end, Christmas may well be postponed but we are all well used to that

[blunderbuss] 26/10/2016 23:08

Thanks Alex.

Actually it's been Next Christmas for as long as I can remember.

Definitely Deja vu all over again :-)

[1gw] 26/10/2016 23:07

Well I thought that was pretty good really. They're guiding to a very solid year against their original (March) guidance (top end of the range revenue and $2.75-$2.79 non-GAAP eps vs $2.45-$2.60). The reality is perhaps that the analysts got a bit ahead of that in their 4Q estimates and hence I guess the after-hours shareprice drop.

But it appears the integration is done and the company has swallowed Pace and is now spitting out operating cash. Both segments appear to me from that call to be well-placed for the future.

One question on the call picked up the recent tendency to have a bit of a windfall in high-margin software licences (E6000) in 4Q and Arris' answer didn't seem to rule out this possibility, although the implication was that they couldn't actually see it yet. So if the windfall does materialise again then that would suggest to me there might be some upside on the 4Q eps guidance.

Interesting the lurch towards cpe in 3Q (i.e. higher weighting of contribution from CPE than in recent quarters) and commentary on the call about a bit of a pause in N&C as they get ready for the 2nd Gen E6000 ("Expect significant upgrade cycle as Gen 2 line cards become available..."). Also some comments about the number of new CPE products meaning CPE margins were a bit lower (as it takes a while to get the costs out of a new product), not just the balance between CPE and N&C.

So perhaps Christmas has been postponed again (it was supposed to be Christmas 2014 originally right?) but I saw no overriding reason in that call why it shouldn't arrive eventually...

[alexmcdonald] 26/10/2016 22:51

This is the first time I have heard new CEO Bruce McClelland and I am impressed with his performance tonight.
Overall the presentation was positive and the team sound really confident that they can meet and exceed guidance already out there. I am looking forward with renewed optimism for the coming 15 months.

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 22:11

Arris Group Inc. Q3 Income Rises 75%

Arris Group Inc. earnings at a glance:


-Earnings (Q3): $146.70 Mln. vs. $83.68 Mln. last year.
-Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y): 75.3%
-EPS (Q3): $0.77 vs. $0.56 last year.
-EPS Growth (Y-o-Y): 37.5%
-Analysts Estimate: $0.76
-Revenue (Q3): $1.73 Bln vs. $1.22 Bln last year.
-Revenue Change (Y-o-Y): 41.8%


Read more:

[bashor] 26/10/2016 22:10

I'm all ears

[bashor] 26/10/2016 21:35

Yeh Ho, I'll stay in the pub