Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 23/4/2024 08:44

Yes, indeed. The large dir buys were at mid 120's level.

[seball] 23/4/2024 08:13

Agree this was heavily oversold. Directors buying recently gives confidence. BUY

[brucie5] 23/4/2024 08:00

Looks like £1 broken today. I predict 1.20 in fairly short order, bearing in mind it was touching 1.50 in March.

[brucie5] 22/4/2024 12:22

Thanks 74tom - 1.70 would certainly do me short term!
;)

[74tom] 22/4/2024 11:06

Buy side considerably stronger the last couple of days, sellers still around in the afternoons & closing auction, suggesting they may be US based. It's definitely stabilised though with little apparent intent for selling below current levels, agree with the rest of your thoughts. Note HSBC downgrade this morning from 280p to 170p, so they apparently see the current move as an overreaction to the downside...

[brucie5] 22/4/2024 10:58

"Non pasaran!"
Well maybe. Small buys look like being soaked up.
Anyone with level 2 access care to share what they see this morning?
My conjecture continues to be that this is capitulation. I'm surprised that anyone left in would be still trying to sell.
As yet nothing to send the share the other way, except some correction of the oversold situation on the chart. The 50sma, with which the share price not infrequently makes contact on the way down is at 1.30p. So best guess is that we could see a 25% correction the other way without even touching the current trend.
In the medium term I continue to look for the recapturing of the £1 level before we see a credible base begin to build.
All on the tea leaves, obviously, so NAI.

[brucie5] 20/4/2024 09:38

Until proved otherwise my sense is that 90p is the bottom, though who knows; a stab below the level might see further desperate sells before the new buying round is complete. To me this shows all the signs of capitulation.

Along my learning journey, Albert's substack was also a reminder of the solid financials here:



Including this:
"The other highlight is that the company now has $600M in cash and have a $1.35B valuation (at £1.25 share price), which means they are at around $750M EV. "

Since that note the mcap is now £800m (at .93p sp); and with last reported balance at £472m, that would imply an EV of £328m.

Edit: I see Stocko has EV at £569, but based on cash at 270m - shorely shome mishtake?

Please feel encouraged to question any of my figures or assumptions (I was always useless at sums!) But I think this is now 'cheap'; and the catalyst may indeed be, as Bamboo keeps reminding us, the expiration of the anti takeover shares:



Next week may prove interesting and I think we may be very near to end of the decline. Obviously, for those seeking a less risky way in IPO offers a less hair raising route in.

NAI.

[brucie5] 20/4/2024 09:24

A couple of weeks ago I was asking about director skin in the game. This morning from my sick bed I've been re-reading the narrative on this thread pretty much from the beginning, to get a sense of what's unfolded here. It leaves me feeling much more confident about what is yet to come; and hereabouts is an extraordinary opportunity. These director buys seem to confirm that confidence:


bamboo27 Mar '24 - 07:32 - 1201 of 1309
0 3 0
Directors buy 392,375 shares.

===================================

The Company has been notified that, on 6 March 2024, the following Directors and Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMRs) purchased the following ordinary shares in the Company:

Name of PDMR ~ Number of ordinary shares ~ Price per ordinary share

Nick Keher (Chief Financial Officer) 77,975 £1.275907

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 15,467 £1.292114

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 39,196 £1.274720

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 23,737 £1.262925

Duncan Tatton Brown (Chair) 236,220 £1.258663

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And then:
bamboo28 Mar '24 - 18:17 - 1208 of 1309
0 0 0
Management buying 57,960 more.
£80k or so

[74tom] 19/4/2024 09:28

That was the scope of the initial partnership announced last April, the October expansion in which they made their £70m investment broadened things to;

"The investment strengthens the relationship between the two companies, further aligning with Oxford Nanopore's increasing focus on clinical markets through a partnership announced in April this year. This investment will support development for products in Oxford Nanopore's portfolio to serve IVD markets in conjunction with bioMérieux's commitment to advancing global public health."

&

"Together, the companies are driving to meet a significant unmet need in the clinical and diagnostic markets- an opportunity where nanopore sequencing is uniquely suited to deliver impact where information-rich, rapid, accessible, and affordable sequencing are critical."

[ih_828197] 19/4/2024 08:47

i thought Bio Merieux partnership was focused on in vitro diagnostic (IVD) solutions only, good to know they are expanding it.

[bamboo2] 19/4/2024 07:01

bio Merieux partnership event in the area of food safety.

This webinar will delve into the impact of real-time nanopore sequencing on food safety — including quality assurance — within the public and private sectors. Food microbiologists will share how new genomic tools can help create a safer and more digital, traceable food system, as outlined in the FDA’s blueprint for a New Era of Smarter Food Safety.

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 16:47

Well I've stated mine.

[ih_828197] 18/4/2024 16:26

What's your guys average price? (If you don't mind sharing) I'll start with mine: 137p, but it will go down as paychecks arrive :)

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 16:06

p1nkfish18 Apr '24 - 16:53 - 1303 of 1303
0 0 0
Taking part is not compulsory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I couldn't agree more. I have to confess I was a little excited to see the long awaited sub £1 arrive. And I have absolutely no knowledge in my possession that says it won't fall below 90p. But the only thing that has really changed is B/E being pushed out by a year, while the IP and product line gets ever more entwined in all sorts of medicine and research. So i think this will only become more valuable, though it might take them some time to persuade the market that it is a business as well as a technology.

Meantime, come back in two years time we might be having the same conversation, but the cash runway will still be sufficient and the story will only have grown.

As stated, I now have full holding which I feel reasonably confident to hold to term. This could of course be a TO, as easily as a business to be valued at many billions in due course. In fact, given the ongoing state of the markets, much more easily - unless it decamps to the US.

And at an average price of a couple of pennies above where we are now.

I will now shut up until we have further new to discuss, or someone contributes something on which I'd like to comment.

The next days might prove interesting - either way.
;)

[p1nkfish] 18/4/2024 15:53

I don't see the need to rush. Traders might be OK but non-traders better off waiting for confirmation that a turn-around is taking hold and in the meantime sit it out. Some have probably been slaughtered here. Who can guarantee the date of a longer term price reversal? First people are stripped of their capital, next they are made to wait for who knows how long for any signs of hope. Both phases are unpleasant. Taking part is not compulsory.

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 15:04

I hope noone sold today... Looks like an attack on the share price has been thwarted. Same again tomorrow? Or will we have new holders on board.
If it can't be pushed below 90p, then £1 is the next obvious threshold. I imagine there will be quite a few new conviction buyers here.

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 13:19

Thanks guys. All grist to the mill.
15.39. Looks like a battle of the Alamo down here.
Better put on my David Crocket hat.
😉

[ih_828197] 18/4/2024 12:51

H2 of this year is when i think the turn-around will happen and the path to profitability will become clearer until then i'll keep avaraging down, ONT reminds me of PLTR 2 years ago, great tech but the market had no confidence on future growth and managment and we know how that turned out.

[74tom] 18/4/2024 12:00

There are no declared positions above the 0.5% threshold right now, although JP Morgan went above that level back in Jan & Millenium were short above that level for a while in 2022. As I said on the KWS board last week, the LSE short reporting disclosures are a disgrace and unfit for purpose vs other global exchanges (NASDAQ & TSX have twice monthly cumulative reporting, ASX daily cumulative). My guess would be that cumulative short positions in ONT are ~5% of share capital (Pacbio was 19% at 28/03). It could be significantly higher, but volume hasn't really been sufficient for that & GIC Private (the Singapore sovereign wealth fund) have been heavy sellers.

Agree on questioning the business model, and I think management should be reporting quarterly to keep shareholders up to date on progress, which is of course the norm in the US, Australia & Canada...

[takeiteasy] 18/4/2024 11:45

just to clarify is this being actively shorted, once we get this low you start to wonder if the entire business model is being questioned as viablequestion is there anything management can do more to more to address this

[74tom] 18/4/2024 11:41

@brucie, there were a couple of 50k buys on the book in the 93/94 region, they've now been filled & now we have 50k at 90.1 and 45k at 88, both placed in the last half an hour

[74tom] 18/4/2024 11:39

Volume simply isn't there at the moment, sellers still offloading into a buy side order book that is unchanged from the last few months, a few 50k blocks every now and again but nothing resembling true support (I'd want to see 7 figure buy orders propping things up to signal a potential bottom).

Personally, I don't think there is any definitive read across from PACB's strategic & financial problems, however given the worsening macro it appears that this has become even more of a 'show me' story, and the value of the IP has gone out of the window for now.

Very interesting to see just how low this ends up going, PACB has certainly thrown fuel on the fire for those who don't believe long reads can commercially replicate the success that Illumina had on the short read side.

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 11:31

Someone appears to be hoovering at 93/94.

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 15:48

Decent recovery, but sub £1 may yet be tested again tomorrow to see how far down this can be taken. The more resilient the support over 90p, the higher the bids may become. I cannot see this as a penny share for long. But maybe that's wishful thinking.

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 13:37

One illustration of the mcap/revenue differential between three pre-profit stories I follow:

Mcap Revenues Rev Multiple

OXB 195 119 1.6

ONT 861 169 5

CWR 257 22 11

All figures from Stocko. I hold 1 & 2 in order of size; but not yet 3.