Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 19:32

sobering stuff over 5 years...I know we are all looking forward now and not back...but even so...

[steeplejack] 11/12/2024 19:20

PACB is over 90% off its peak of a few years back and looks very unloved with shorts nudging 20%.Just hope its problems aren't infectious but yes,you're right,it's wrong to generalise and all that glitters is not gold on Nasdaq.Superficially,PACB looks very oversold but I'll steer clear :)

[brucie5] 11/12/2024 17:06

Rise above 1.50 is bullish; but the pattern needs to break over 1.60 and preferably make it to 1.70 to confirm. I'd say it's coming together nicely for the run up to £2+, which is where it started the year.

[foreverbull] 11/12/2024 16:21

Actually Oxford Nanopore hasn't done that badly as compared to its US peer Pacific Biosciences which is c76% down vs 20% in case of ONT

[steeplejack] 11/12/2024 16:03

Even as a 'non-chartist',my uneducated eye can discern that the chart with its cup and handle looks very convincing.....even more so if this stock (like so many others)was listed on Nasdaq rather the sad,little backwater that the UK equity market has become.

[brucie5] 10/12/2024 15:30

Takeiteasy, thanks, but I take it this is of a non-disclosable a size?
I continue to think this is waiting to go up again on the cup-and-handle and a pattern of buying within a consolidation phase fits with my view. I see this as between 2 and 2.50 within next six months.
Events at IPO may also assist in bringing attention. This is pretty much the jewel in their diadem, no?

[takeiteasy] 10/12/2024 07:31

Alliance Technology trust confirmed today they have increased their position in ONT over the recent months and although still quite small percentage wise sits at the same percentage as palantir in their portfolio as context. Polar Capital Tech trust have ONT as their own holding in the "Life Sciences Tools & Services" sub sector of hte fund - given earlier comments above, perhaps we are starting to get noticed more widely amongst the investing institutions?

[bamboo2] 09/12/2024 18:20

Brucie, IPGroup have sold a tranche of holdings to a new Venture Capital and Private Equity firm called Lexham Partners. It's run by Dominic Perks [He was formerly CEO at Hambro Perks]. It appears some of IPGroups ONT holding is part of the deal.

It's possible Lexham may choose to buy more ONT in the open market.

[brucie5] 09/12/2024 16:58

IPO reducing? Must be time for lift-off.
;)

[brucie5] 05/12/2024 10:11

Back in this morning for the cup and handle. I do like a nice cuppa.
;)

[trickydicky1] 05/12/2024 09:15

23rd December FTSE 250 index inclusion.

[trickydicky1] 05/12/2024 09:15

hxxps://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-december-2024

[bamboo2] 04/12/2024 16:27

tom, agree they're probably out by now.

It's almost comical that they knew this position just as they were updating us last time.

Schroders are proud of their tradition. All ledgers updated quarterly on parchment by quill bearing actuaries...

[74tom] 04/12/2024 15:49

Pretty much done then - was their aim to exit before ONT enters the 250? You'd really have to question their sanity...

Edit. I note they claim in their RNS · "During the quarter, the Company made £9.5 million of further realisations of Oxford Nanopore Technologies, benefitting from strong share price performance."

At 30/06/24 they held 10,776,483 shares vs 2,765,556 at 30/09, so they sold 8,010,927 in the quarter at an average price of £1.185

Considering shares opened the year at £2.08, I'd love to know how that classes as 'benefitting from strong share price performance'

[bamboo2] 04/12/2024 14:48

30 Sep 2024 post 1686...
Schroders Capital Global Innovation Trust Plc [catchy!] updated this morning...
...ONT holding valued at 30/6/24 £10,173,000/.944p [closing share price on Fri 28/6/24] = 10,776,483 shares
As at 30/6/24 INOV, AKA Nortrust, formerly SUPP, formerly Woodford Patient Capital now holds 1.23%
============================

INOV update this morning [04/12/2024] gives us the detail of their ONT holding on 30/9/2024.
As usual, the co. likes to keep everyone well out of the loop by reporting as late as possible.

The holding [30/9/2024] was valued at £4.4m/£1.591[ONT sp] = 2,765,556 shares or 0.29%

[foetus in your brain] 02/12/2024 10:05

Agree that would be even better. Might stall here for a bit but momentum looks strong so I suspect not for long.

[the big fella] 02/12/2024 10:01

It needs a 170 close for it to look that compelling.

[74tom] 01/12/2024 22:30

No problem @bamboo2.

Once above 0.5% a short seller has to notify the FCA within a day of crossing the threshold & again at each 0.1% increase / decrease. I believe most short positions are opened by steadily selling stock via AT trades on the SETS order book. This selling pressure either cause a stock to plateau or fall over a period of time. The key thing to note is that most positions aren't closed in this way; usually you will see a short position unwound in a controlled manner with large block trades.

My understanding is that this is because the short seller has hedged their position via an intermediary (i.e. Goldman, JP Morgan), and the block trades are the unwind of the hedge + underlying position. There will be derivatives, leverage & all sorts of complex strategies at play to minimize / fix risk.

It's definitely the case that a hedge fund can reduce a short & then increase it again to stop a share price from recovering. Odey Asset Management did this to Metro Bank for years, it's no surprise that now they are defunct, MTRO are recovering.

Many short sellers are quant only. Someone on the LSE forum noted that Systematica are 100% quant driven, so if a company is loss making & the shares are in a downtrend, they will short them on the assumption that the downtrend will continue. They have zero interest in what the company does, just that 9 times out of 10 a loss making entity with shares in a downtrend will continue to go down! Ocado definitely fall into this bucket, and it's why they have such huge bounces every now and again, as quants get caught out.

On the IPO sellers, the more pre IPO funding rounds the higher the likelihood there will be sellers post IPO. ONT had nearly a dozen rounds & this capital will have been locked up for years, so the sellers will often want to cash in and move on to pastures new. Especially if shares aren't flying.

Thanks for flagging the last INOV update by the way, I checked their behaviour since the IPO and it was hilarious. Whoever is running that Schroder fund should be ashamed of themselves.

At 31/12/21 they held 23.3m shares valued at £162m
At 31/12/21 they held 20m shares valued at £41.6m

So in 2 years with shares between £2 and £6 they only sold 3.3m shares

The at 30/06/24 they only held 10.7m shares, so in the first 6 months of 2024 they fire sold 9.3m shares at the worst possible time. It'll be curious to see how many they have left when they report their finals. My guess would be not many. It's no surprise that INOV are in what looks like a terminal downtrend.

Either way, the influx of FTSE all share / 250 tracker buying should be a boon, those shares have to come from somewhere and after 3 years many of the IPO sellers must have exited. A return to £2+ would certainly make sense.

[trickydicky1] 01/12/2024 20:33

EIT & friends 10%, Novo 5%, BM 5%

Top 5 instos been here a LONG time.

Rats and mice have abandoned ship?

Let’s see!!

[p1nkfish] 01/12/2024 16:52

Action here is beyond comprehension, all the shenanigans will unwind some time and the price be north of £2.50. It's becoming a foundational company to rapid sequencing and worthy of higher valuation.
The sellers baffle me.

The 52 week Donchian Channel drops after 7th Jan (approx) to about 167p around week of 14th Jan (approx). By then I think we may be at 52 week high +. 12 month peak was week of 31st Dec 2023.

Worst behind us?

[bamboo2] 01/12/2024 11:08

tom, thank you for the post. Yes it's excellent that we can anticipate tracker and fund driven accumulation. Presumably along with a rising Mcap there is a corresponding increase in weighting?

I'm still keen to learn from you and others about the mechanics of the shorts. More generally [not just talking about ONT] I have often wondered about the timing between the announcement and the actual sale or sales. Would the borrowed stock be held for a while until the share price had seemingly peaked?

What happens to the cash received from the sale of the stock? Is that banked with the interest used to offset the cost of the short?

If a shorter buys back some of the short, can that then be sold again in order to try and 'manipulate' the share price, in order to try to drive the price down and make the short potentially more profitable?

One thing seems clear, there are some in the market [eg IPO shares] whom are seemingly desperate to sell for whatever reason, and are happy to receive lower and lower prices for their stock. This is surely counterintuitive, as 'genuine investors' [unless they are desperate or forced sellers] surely want to get the best/highest price possible when they realise their investment?

[74tom] 29/11/2024 17:33

@Bamboo2, it's not just the FTSE250 inclusion that's relevant, the FTSE All Share inclusion means ONT will need to be purchased by any ETF that tracks the entire UK Index.

I.e.

The FTSE All Share has a total market cap of ~£2.5t, so at £1.5b ONT will carry a 0.058% weighting. That means that single Blackrock ETF will need to buy ~£6.6m in ONT stock. That alone is 0.46% of ONT share capital...

I'm in the middle of tallying up the large ETF's, however it's already obvious that the inflows will be substantial.

Second post to follow on the shorts

[bamboo2] 29/11/2024 17:02

A second 0.5% short added yesterday.

1 Systematica Investments Limited, 0.5% 12/11/2024 [-16% if all were sold on 12/11]
2 ExodusPoint Capital Management, US based HF 0.5% 28/11/2024 [-8% if all sold 28/11]

Hard to understand in the light of inclusion in the FTSE250.
Perhaps these are index tracking shorts or something to do with Trump being bad for health?
I don't know enough about how they operate. Anyone else know?
Is the 0.5% trickled into the market, or sold in one or a few lots?