Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 10:45

Maybe a good call, Yas; this is what I thought would happen, with 90p as possible support after £1.
Though who knows.
Too much to expect some major buying at this level?

[yasx] 17/4/2024 10:06

Have started to scale in here, will add on any further declines.

[p1nkfish] 16/4/2024 16:41

4.5x 3M average volume on PACB already and still 3.5 hrs left approx.

If PACB looks so risky would you want to adopt their solutions unless there was no alternative? Needs some deep pockets to step in to stabilise their ship.

Worth waiting to see a sign of reverse in trend before taking any positions.

[74tom] 16/4/2024 16:28

Didn't know that @bamboo2, but it makes sense when you look at their consumables performance over the last few years, it looks like many customers never order beyond the free stuff either... horrendous financials.

As for the UK listing being a shelter, it doesn't really work when a company is on SETS as ONT is, there was huge sell volume in the closing auction which almost pushed the price under £1. Agree on the US market in general though, there are some nosebleed valuations again after the relative reset in 2022

[brucie5] 16/4/2024 16:09

£1 hit. Now let's see.

[p1nkfish] 16/4/2024 15:57

Have to wonder if a UK listing is not so bad after all.
A backwater away from the US slaughter house.

US multiples will come under the hammer and some reality begin to sink in across multiple sectors.

Keep away from areas where much of the upside has been down to P/E expansion.

[bamboo2] 16/4/2024 15:51

74tom, PACB also robs its forward sales of consumables by packaging a load of them 'free' if new customers order a new machine. Aka 'buying the business'.

[ih_828197] 16/4/2024 15:34

PACB is looking like it's going bk.

[74tom] 16/4/2024 15:33

Pacbio pre announced their Q1 results this afternoon, an absolute horror show;



Shares off 46% currently, they look in real trouble with a market cap of just $480m vs $900m in gross convertible debt.

Given ONT updated the market just over a month ago, you'd like to think FY24 guidance takes into account many of the reasons disclosed by PACB, which were listed as;

"The uncertainty surrounding the funding for new capital equipment, particularly in the U.S. and China;

Procurement delays;

Small-to-mid-size existing customers yet to increase their sample volumes to drive an upgrade to Revio; and,

An increasing proportion of the sales pipeline was comprised of new customers in the first quarter of 2024, which have shown they have longer sales cycles compared to existing PacBio customers.

Consumable revenue was also below expectations, which the company believes was primarily attributed to: `

Slower-than-expected ramp-up in sequencing by our small- to mid-sized customers, many of whom are new to PacBio. The time for new Revio customers and new projects to reach full capacity has been slower than previously anticipated;

Sample delays impacting sequencing volume in the quarter at certain large customers; and,

Some service providers in China operating at lower utilization as a result of the difficult funding environment."

Turbulent times ahead in the sequencing market, particularly with a new product from Roche landing in the next few weeks!

[bamboo2] 15/4/2024 20:02

New study finds potential targets at chromosome ends for degenerative disease prevention

UC Santa Cruz inventors of nanopore sequencing hail innovative use of their revolutionary genetic-reading technique

Full article,

April 11, 2024

By Mike Peña


Telomeres are found at the ends of chromosomes and play a critical role in the cell-renewal process.

We depend on our cells being able to divide and multiply, whether it’s to replace sunburnt skin or replenish our blood supply and recover from injury. Chromosomes, which carry all of our genetic instructions, must be copied in a complete way during cell division. Telomeres, which cap the ends of chromosomes, play a critical role in this cell-renewal process—with a direct bearing on health and disease.

The enzyme telomerase plays a key role in maintaining the length of telomeres as chromosomes replicate during cell division. UC Santa Cruz professor Carol Greider has been studying telomeres and telomerase for over 30 years. The impact of the discoveries she has made over that time are why she, along with two colleagues, won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2009.

So, the findings of Greider’s latest study on telomeres shouldn’t have surprised her. And yet, they did.

Published online today in Science, a new study finds that telomere lengths follow a different pattern than has thus far been understood. Instead of telomere lengths falling under one general range of shortest to longest across all chromosomes, this study finds that different chromosomes have separate end-specific telomere-length distributions.

According to Greider, this discovery means we don’t fully understand the molecular process that regulates telomere lengths. And that’s important because of how telomere lengths affect human health: “When telomeres get to be too short, you have age-related degenerative diseases like pulmonary fibrosis, bone-marrow failure, and immunosuppression,” Greider said. “On the other hand, if telomeres are too long, it predisposes you to certain types of cancer.”

Kayarash Karimian, the lead author on the paper, is a former Ph.D. student in Greider’s lab at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. Other co-authors of this study include researchers at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, and University of Pittsburgh. Greider, a distinguished professor of molecular, cell, and developmental biology at UC Santa Cruz, and a University Professor at Johns Hopkins, was the senior author on the paper and led the work.

Why length matters
Without telomerase, telomeres would get shorter and shorter as a cell divides over and over again. Over the past 30 years, research by Greider and others have confirmed that short telomeres lead to degenerative disease—as well as shown that telomere lengths fall within a certain range.

But this paper challenges scientific consensus by showing that a singular telomere-length range is too broad. Measuring the telomeres of 147 people for this study, the researchers found in one individual that the average telomere length across all chromosomes was 4,300 bases of DNA. Then when they isolated specific chromosomes, they found most telomere lengths differed significantly from this average. In one case, lengths differed as much as 6,000 bases, which Greider describes as “jaw dropping.”

Further, they found across all 147 individuals the same telomeres were most often the shortest or longest, implying telomeres on specific chromosome ends may be the first to trigger stem-cell failure.

Innovating on nanopore sequencing

To make such precise measurements at the molecular level, Greider’s team used a technique invented at UC Santa Cruz called “nanopore sequencing,” a revolutionary method for reading DNA and RNA that has had an immense impact on genomics research since its 2014 debut on the market as the commercial product MinION.

Nanopore technology has enabled some of the most significant advances in the genomics field, such as the completion of a gapless human genome, and sequencing of COVID-19 genomes—making it crucial in the fight to end the pandemic. UC Santa Cruz licensed the concept for nanopore-sequencing technology to the UK-based company Oxford Nanopore Technologies, which made MinION, the first hand-held DNA sequencer.

Notably, in the eyes of nanopore sequencing’s inventors, Greider’s study proves that the technique’s ability to advance scientific research continues to unfold. Mark Akeson, emeritus professor of biomolecular engineering at UC Santa Cruz, notes that two preprint studies that corroborate the basic findings of Greider’s paper have also been posted online.

“In my opinion, this is the most important nanopore-based paper focused on human biology since the MinION was introduced,” Akeson said. “It is easy to envision broad use of their telomere-length assay in the clinic.”

Akeson and David Deamer, also an emeritus professor of biomolecular engineering at the Baskin School of Engineering, were honored at the Library of Congress last year for inventing nanopore sequencing. Their colleague and friend Daniel Branton, a Havard biologist and co-inventor of the technology, was honored as well.

Implications for disease prevention
Such precise DNA reads allowed Greider’s team to pinpoint the sequences adjacent to telomeres and hypothesize that those areas are where telomerase is regulating length. And if that’s true, Greider said those regions, and the proteins that bind there, could serve as potential targets for new drugs for preventing disease.

In addition, their process of “telomere profiling” via nanopore sequencing could serve as a model for the development of additional MinION-based assays for high-throughput drug screening.

“This accessible technique has widespread potential for use in research, diagnostics, and drug development,” Greider said. “This work indicates that there are yet undiscovered mechanisms for telomere length regulation; probing these mechanisms will inform new approaches to cancer and certain degenerative diseases.”

The study, “Human telomere length is chromosome end-specific and conserved across individuals,” was funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health (R35CA209974 to Greider and R01HL166265), the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Distinguished Professorship, and the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program.

[yasx] 15/4/2024 17:20

74Tom,

You do not need to try and convince me. Even if you were to try, the evidence is all too clear. Jam tomorrow, pre revenue stage Co's appear to form the bulk of your (dwindling) portfolio. Those with sense buy solid Co's with strong asset backing, cashflow and producing an income. A bit of speculation within a portfolio is fine, but when almost every stock you back is an early stage worthless tiddler, the writing is on the wall. I did caution you at the highs about EXR, RENX, AMTE, STX but you indulged in hurling a cannonade of profanities. Oh well.

I will leave it at that to allow discussion on ONT to resume.

[harijan] 15/4/2024 16:38

74tom. For what it's worth I value your contributions greatly. You are very knowledgable on how markets work and how, from time to time, they are manipulated. I suspected that you might well become a target for those that manipulate, or attempt to.

Fear not, even in this cesspit you are still considered by the majority to be worthy of attention and support.

[yasx] 15/4/2024 15:51

Brucie,

I will set out my analysis on ONT in due course.

74Tom,

I bear you no ill will. I merely point out that you are well out of your depth when it comes to investing. You really ought to buy a tracker rather than dispensing advice. Of course, any experienced and seasoned investor will see right through it, but novice plums may be enticed by some of the baseless guff you churn out.

I have encountered you on perhaps a dozen or so threads. Where you have been bearish (invariably unjustifiably so) the shares have rocketed. When you have been relentlessly bullish, the shares have collapsed. Even more alarmingly, on each occasion it was explained to you in advance why your reasons for being bullish/bearish had no merit. I therefore take your opinion very seriously with a view to doing the exact opposite. You should do the same - it will dramatically improve your performance.

Hope that helps.

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 15:14

Yas, as Big Phil on Eastenders might say, "Leave it eaawt!"
I think the more views here the better; we're all adults here and free to make our own minds up.
I value 74tom's posts.
If you have an opinion on the shares or the share price, please share.

[yasx] 15/4/2024 14:45

74tom13 Apr '24 - 13:10 - 1262 of 1272

Interestingly, if you were to use the 425p IPO price as the high instead, then the 78.6% "bottom rung" fib would be at 91p too.

I suspect ONT would have plenty of suitors, both UK based & internationally, at well above the current price.

----------------------

Not only do you suspect it, but you hope that is the case since I recall you have been plugging this all the way down from 300p.

I have never met anyone with as robust and consistent track record of failure as that of 74Tom - whatever stock he calls a buy disintegrates into dust. ONT is one of his better picks since it remains listed. Most of his picks just go to the wall resulting in a total wipeout.

I was taking a look here today with a view to taking a long position and his presence on this thread is sufficient to induce a considerable degree of caution before I have even delved into the minutiae of ONT.

If 74Tom is long of any company, well, caveat emptor. He is undoubtedly the perfect contrarian indicator.

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 12:57

74tom, good job. Let's see if market agrees.

[74tom] 15/4/2024 08:25

They covered it from 38 mins in the last results call - GS said that tethering the A100 chips to the instruments resolves the licensing issues & early access instruments will be ready in Q2 & full roll out in H2. They also covered broader Chinese funding issues in the question before, so the 500B yuan stimulus package will certainly be welcome news for them IMO.

[p1nkfish] 14/4/2024 20:02

Has ONT worked around Nvidia yet as wasn't that a blocker to shipping to China on some products?

[74tom] 14/4/2024 18:18

Should be bullish for nanopore too



"Life Sciences – The People’s Bank of China recently disclosed a relending program of 500B yuan, which will go towards China’s science and technology industries to support innovation, technical transformation, and equipment renewal. As a part of the relending program, the PBOC plans on relending the 500B yuan at an interest rate of 1.75%, which can be renewed or extended twice (each for a year).

This compares to the stimulus program from late 2022, which was for 200B yuan and provided interest rate discounts and tax credits. JPMorgan acknowledges that it remains unclear how much of this 500B yuan stimulus package will end up being spent on the life science tools sector. However, the last stimulus package was also vague in terms of targeted industries, and ultimately most tools companies in their coverage saw a benefit.

“We continue to look for details on when the new stimulus program will be deployed, and we expect to hear additional color in the coming weeks. As a reminder, whenever the stimulus package does begin, there is typically a 1-2 quarter lag before our companies will see the benefit. In terms of the impact to our sector, we believe this will ultimately have a positive impact on any company in our coverage with instrument exposure in the region (A, BRKR, DHR, ILMN, MTD, RVTY, TMO, and WAT), but we would expect the companies with the largest exposure to high-end scientific research markets (BRKR and TMO) to have the most outsized potential benefit.”