Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[apple53] 07/3/2024 10:10

anyone good on the technicals/fibs? Resistance levels? There could still be frustrated shareholders who missed out selling on the way down and who may throw in the towel prematurely on the way back up.

Thanks tom for very interesting analysis vs pacbio.

[ih_828197] 07/3/2024 09:53

is it bad if i want the stock price to stay low for 8-12 months ,so i can get to 20k shares, currently at 9k.
:)

[32v31today] 07/3/2024 08:24

Good. That's a decent bit of commitment from mgt, especially the young CFO. Hopefully, it's all coming together, we're at the bottom and we'll never see these prices again. As aside Pacbio Cowan presentation is publicly available. Hopeless. But speaks to a tough end user market that everyone has struggled with.

[bamboo2] 07/3/2024 07:32

Directors buy 392,375 shares.

===================================

The Company has been notified that, on 6 March 2024, the following Directors and Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMRs) purchased the following ordinary shares in the Company:

Name of PDMR ~ Number of ordinary shares ~ Price per ordinary share

Nick Keher (Chief Financial Officer) 77,975 £1.275907

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 15,467 £1.292114

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 39,196 £1.274720

Dr Gordon Sanghera (Chief Executive Officer) 23,737 £1.262925

Duncan Tatton Brown (Chair) 236,220 £1.258663

[74tom] 06/3/2024 13:46

I thought the CFO was excellent this morning, bizarrely knowledgeable for someone new to the role... too knowledgeable perhaps? ;)

Think this is a good summary with some decent points as usual;

The last few para's talk about the potential for a Solexa style take out, one thing is for sure, any bid will be at a substantial to the current 3x EV/Sales

[32v31today] 06/3/2024 10:39

I haven't heard of any delays in supply, but convos I've had suggest they've long gone from being interesting new toy to de facto workhorse. Delays are a pain even if fixable.

[bamboo2] 06/3/2024 10:25

32/31, I heard on another site that some of those ordering P2's last year were put on a waiting list, as the co. could not keep up with demand. This is part of the reason for expanding their manufacturing capacity and inventory.

[32v31today] 06/3/2024 09:26

EBITDA be 2027 and cash be 28. Plenty of cash to do the job although gm increases at time of cash be?

[32v31today] 06/3/2024 09:24

Life science tools had a tough year last year by all accounts (think DHR TMO et al), lots of missed targets, destocking post covid, larger funds rotating out of key players all putting pressure on share prices. Expected to have gone through the bottom of this now and to pick up in 2024 with LS tools a potential outperformer of the healthcare sub sectors. Might see early signs of turning the corner in Q2 results in the sector April/ May. Who knows.Hopefully this will rub off on the sequencing co's too and signals a generally improving tools user market after a tough year last year. I get the impression they found last year tough.I was impressed by the new CFO. Much more switched on and knew what was important. Was able to present what analysis need too.

[bamboo2] 06/3/2024 09:20

First ONT based public hearing for Nick Keher sounded pretty good.

Slides from presentation here,

[brucie5] 06/3/2024 08:19

Ebitda BE in 2027.
Which is presumably not quite the same as earnings.

[74tom] 06/3/2024 07:48

This will be very interesting today, particularly in light on Pacbio's further 11% fall last night... Nanopore are in a very good financial position vs it's arch rival, this in particular I like;

"An increased focus on financial discipline to leverage the infrastructure the company has already built and to modulate investment relative to the outlook."

On another positive note, gross profit of £90m covers the vast majority of their R&D expense (£103m), this is a very difference picture to Pacbio, which in Q4 had gross profit of $14.4m vs R&D spend of $44.5m

Annualised, ONT is generating £90m / $114m of gross profit per annum vs PACB's 2023 gross profit of $58m.

If one company is going to survive and prosper in this market then it is surely ONT, although I can't believe it will be with a listing on LSE!

[alanhay99] 06/3/2024 07:45

Dear oh dear. What a disaster.

[bamboo2] 06/3/2024 07:05

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc

Preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2023

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc (LSE: ONT) ("Oxford Nanopore" or the "Group"), the company behind a new generation of molecular sensing technology based on nanopores, today announces its preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2023.

Gordon Sanghera, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We delivered strong underlying revenue growth of 39% in 2023, driven by the strength of our differentiated technology, commercial model, and strategic investments in infrastructure. Last year we also delivered breakthroughs in our platform performance, achieving record accuracy, expanded end-to-end workflows and increased access to high output applications with the PromethION 2 (P2) product rollout, with 700 P2 Solos sold or leased through starter packs in FY23.

"As we look forward, our highly differentiated platform and substantial market opportunity, positions us well to deliver long-term, sustainable growth. We are focused on key strategic initiatives to drive value, including disciplined investments in our technology and commercial operations where appropriate to unlock key opportunities in priority markets. We also remain mindful of end-market conditions, with sales cycles lengthening at the same time as we have expanded our commercial and operational infrastructure to support future growth. These factors have led us to revise our forecast for achieving adjusted EBITDA breakeven to the end of 2027 as we continue to focus on delivering against the huge commercial opportunity ahead of us.

"We are confident that we can deliver underlying revenue growth of 20 to 30% in 2024 and greater than 30% in the medium term."

[brucie5] 05/3/2024 18:07

Maybe they'll do an oxb.

[bamboo2] 05/3/2024 07:28

Mix up in my diary. Results tomorrow.

[74tom] 04/3/2024 16:20

Quite extraordinary to think that the EV here is now ~£600m

I do think the recent accelerated decline is mainly due to PACB's share price performance.

Today, at fresh 1 year lows, they have a market cap of $1.29b.

At 31/12 they had $631.4m of cash & $891m of CLN debt, so their EV was $1.549b, which is around double that of ONT.

If you compare the financial performance of each company, ONT is far superior.

PACB grew top line product revenue by 69% YoY, however this translated to a pathetic 8% improvement in gross profit from $49m to $52m. Operating losses were $334m on gross margins of 26%...

ONT's gross margins are more than double at 57%, and their H123 gross profit was greater than PACB's entire FY23 number.

Hard to fathom how ONT can remain on LSE much longer.

[74tom] 04/3/2024 14:41

Ah, excellent. I had it in my head that they weren't for a few weeks yet as last year was the 21st

[bamboo2] 04/3/2024 14:27

INOV, holding the ex-Woodford Patient Capital shares are selling piecemeal.
They could have done a deal for the lot much higher up, but didn't.

INOV follow a handful of other II's whom have been constantly selling since the flotation.

There are precious few TR-1's to show for all the volume we have experienced over the last 2.5 yrs, therefore we don't know where the shares are ending up. All we know, is that it's not the same few hundred thousand shares being churned every day.

[bamboo2] 04/3/2024 14:20

tom, in the header...

Key Financial dates:

9 January 2024
Full year 2023 trading update

6 March 2024
Full year results for the year ended 31 December 2023

22 June 2024 [Could be 9/6/2024 as paperwork is ambiguous]
Management LAT [anti-takeover] shares expire.

Next NCM's

London Calling 2024
Tuesday 21st - Friday 24th May 2024

[takeiteasy] 04/3/2024 13:46

rate of decline is steepening atm even though we have drawn down such a lot...are there any forced sellers I wonder at all pressing this down

[brucie5] 04/3/2024 13:02

2bln is less than twice the price. So you're guestimate is about £2? That would be little short of criminal; which probably means it's quite realistic.
The decline continues.

Interesting thought about IPO.

[bamboo2] 04/3/2024 12:50

Brucie, ONT won't be listed here in 3-5 years timeframe.

My feeling is that this will be acquired by one of the US based pharma's and go the same way as Solexa. They would be happy to snap this up for $2bn.

Unlike the US, the UK market lacks volume/depth required for pre profit tech companies. The main hope for many longs is a foreign buyer.

Larger holders such as IPGroup [IPO] will have run out of patience. I have often thought that IPGroup could be acquired, as a way of nabbing 10% of ONT by the back door, the remainder of the IPO p/f could be gone in a firesale.

[brucie5] 04/3/2024 12:17

Thanks, Bamboo, very helpful. In your estimation does this mean ONT is far more likely now to be taken over than reach potential independently? What about IPO's interest?