Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[harijan] 15/4/2024 17:38

74tom. For what it's worth I value your contributions greatly. You are very knowledgable on how markets work and how, from time to time, they are manipulated. I suspected that you might well become a target for those that manipulate, or attempt to.

Fear not, even in this cesspit you are still considered by the majority to be worthy of attention and support.

[yasx] 15/4/2024 16:51

Brucie,

I will set out my analysis on ONT in due course.

74Tom,

I bear you no ill will. I merely point out that you are well out of your depth when it comes to investing. You really ought to buy a tracker rather than dispensing advice. Of course, any experienced and seasoned investor will see right through it, but novice plums may be enticed by some of the baseless guff you churn out.

I have encountered you on perhaps a dozen or so threads. Where you have been bearish (invariably unjustifiably so) the shares have rocketed. When you have been relentlessly bullish, the shares have collapsed. Even more alarmingly, on each occasion it was explained to you in advance why your reasons for being bullish/bearish had no merit. I therefore take your opinion very seriously with a view to doing the exact opposite. You should do the same - it will dramatically improve your performance.

Hope that helps.

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 16:14

Yas, as Big Phil on Eastenders might say, "Leave it eaawt!"
I think the more views here the better; we're all adults here and free to make our own minds up.
I value 74tom's posts.
If you have an opinion on the shares or the share price, please share.

[yasx] 15/4/2024 15:45

74tom13 Apr '24 - 13:10 - 1262 of 1272

Interestingly, if you were to use the 425p IPO price as the high instead, then the 78.6% "bottom rung" fib would be at 91p too.

I suspect ONT would have plenty of suitors, both UK based & internationally, at well above the current price.

----------------------

Not only do you suspect it, but you hope that is the case since I recall you have been plugging this all the way down from 300p.

I have never met anyone with as robust and consistent track record of failure as that of 74Tom - whatever stock he calls a buy disintegrates into dust. ONT is one of his better picks since it remains listed. Most of his picks just go to the wall resulting in a total wipeout.

I was taking a look here today with a view to taking a long position and his presence on this thread is sufficient to induce a considerable degree of caution before I have even delved into the minutiae of ONT.

If 74Tom is long of any company, well, caveat emptor. He is undoubtedly the perfect contrarian indicator.

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 13:57

74tom, good job. Let's see if market agrees.

[74tom] 15/4/2024 09:25

They covered it from 38 mins in the last results call - GS said that tethering the A100 chips to the instruments resolves the licensing issues & early access instruments will be ready in Q2 & full roll out in H2. They also covered broader Chinese funding issues in the question before, so the 500B yuan stimulus package will certainly be welcome news for them IMO.

[p1nkfish] 14/4/2024 21:02

Has ONT worked around Nvidia yet as wasn't that a blocker to shipping to China on some products?

[74tom] 14/4/2024 19:18

Should be bullish for nanopore too



"Life Sciences – The People’s Bank of China recently disclosed a relending program of 500B yuan, which will go towards China’s science and technology industries to support innovation, technical transformation, and equipment renewal. As a part of the relending program, the PBOC plans on relending the 500B yuan at an interest rate of 1.75%, which can be renewed or extended twice (each for a year).

This compares to the stimulus program from late 2022, which was for 200B yuan and provided interest rate discounts and tax credits. JPMorgan acknowledges that it remains unclear how much of this 500B yuan stimulus package will end up being spent on the life science tools sector. However, the last stimulus package was also vague in terms of targeted industries, and ultimately most tools companies in their coverage saw a benefit.

“We continue to look for details on when the new stimulus program will be deployed, and we expect to hear additional color in the coming weeks. As a reminder, whenever the stimulus package does begin, there is typically a 1-2 quarter lag before our companies will see the benefit. In terms of the impact to our sector, we believe this will ultimately have a positive impact on any company in our coverage with instrument exposure in the region (A, BRKR, DHR, ILMN, MTD, RVTY, TMO, and WAT), but we would expect the companies with the largest exposure to high-end scientific research markets (BRKR and TMO) to have the most outsized potential benefit.”

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 16:48

Yes, that's why in OXB but not ONT.
But until recently they shared the same trajectory and even nominal price. CWR another. Obviously shares with multiple peaks hold some illusory promise of getting back to where they will not necessarily return.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 15:46

Brucie,

OXB chart looks like it's basing, no sign of that here.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 13:44

Oakbloke's recent comment:

Detecting disease
I see positive news about genetic breakthroughs in the potential detection of diseases like cancer, this week, but new approaches to its treatment too.

It appears to further demonstrate how genetics will profoundly change the world in the years ahead. Yet Oxford Nanopore reaches new lows yesterday.

The disconnect between investor sentiment and what I see in terms of their technical and commercial progress are quite disconnected.

I prefer to hold ONT through the IP Group (since this is at a discount) but do feel the longer-term opportunity in this area is not appreciated by the market - yet.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 13:33

simon gordon13 Apr '24 - 12:58 - 1261 of 1263
Simon, no I didn't see it. Haven't bought today's Ft either.


Re. support levels, Fingers was a great advocate; and I seem to recall 90p, after the big £ could be secondary one. Other than that, my experience is as fallible as anyone else's and more so than many!

OT, take a look at OXB which has an analogous story in terms of revival to BO as against cash runway. They recently updated very positively and results are due in end of the month. The chart looks potentially very exciting.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 13:16

Cheers, Tom.

If you take it from the peak price, 736p. What would that give?

[74tom] 13/4/2024 13:10

@Simon, how would a fibonacci entry work when shares are at an all time low?

i.e. "Fibonacci retracement levels connect any two points that the trader views as relevant, typically a high point and a low point."

Could you technically use the 238p paid by biomerieux in October as a local high & calculate you fib entry points from that?

I.e.

23.6% = 181p
38.2% = 147p
50% = 119p
61.8% = 91p
78.6% = 51p

Interestingly, if you were to use the 425p IPO price as the high instead, then the 78.6% "bottom rung" fib would be at 91p too.

I suspect ONT would have plenty of suitors, both UK based & internationally, at well above the current price.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:58

Brucie,

Did you catch that piece in the FT about Britain's biggest taxpayer, got 200 employees and setting up his own data server farm in Norway. Company made a billion pounds last year. Those type of guys might have ONT on their watchlist, looking for volume at Fibonacci entry points.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:54

Hey Brucie,

Nice to see you as well!!

Think Fibonacci would be better to find entry points as the big money might use them more than saying 100p or 90p. Pre-programmed charting algos.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 12:44

Simon, how nice to see you - virtually.
Alas I lack the means to do what you ask; or even to paste the same basic charts that I use on advfn. Which no longer seems to allow me.
That said, fibonacci is not something I'm familiar with. does anyone know of a free charting service that offers this? I don't believe Stocko offers fibonacci.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:39

Tom & Brucie,

Cheers!!!

-----

Can anyone do a Fibonacci chart to show potential support levels?

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 12:31

Well be sure to let us know when you're buying.
;)

[74tom] 13/4/2024 12:27

Last few thoughts from me for now;

1. The decline has been driven by low volume, with the average daily value of shares traded in 2024 sitting at £2m (2021 was £12.7m, 2022 was £5.4m and 2023 was £3m). A bottom normally forms when volume is high, so there is no capitulation from large shareholders, it's just a sustained downward pressure.

2. The heavy shorting of US listed arch rival Pacbio is undoubtedly influencing ONT's share price. From my research there appears to be a significant chance of them becoming insolvent, with their market cap of $844m exceeded by $892m of Convertible note debt, and cash of $631m declining by ~$80m per quarter. Cumulative shares held short were 49m at 28th March, which is ~18% of it's float, up from 10% this time last year. Conversely to ONT, PACB has sold off on significantly higher than average volume, as you can see from @Bamboo2,s chart above.

It will be very interesting to see how things play out this year, if PACB are commercially impaired then it can only be a good thing for ONT in my opinion.

[74tom] 13/4/2024 11:50

No doubt @bamboo2 will be able to provide many more catalysts, the most obvious being full NHS adoption for clinical screening, of which numerous pilot studies are well embedded / underway

On the share price finding a floor, well they have ~55p a share in cash & no debt

Between 2015 & their last pre IPO round in 2021, they carried out 7 fundings which all valued the company at over £1b, with a median value of £1.6b. Since then we've had the IPO at £3.4b & the material biomerieux investment 6 months ago at £2.1b

So short term shares may trade lower than £1 / £860m market cap, however given the undeniable scientific advances they have achieved in the last few years + material commercial revenue + manufacturing ability + global reach, reputation etc, I struggle to see it remaining there for long.

At present the daily order book is under constant selling pressure, with Signapore based GIC Private Limited & funds like INOV known sellers.

The anti takeover shares expire in a few months time, will this be the trigger for international funds to start aggressive accumulation?

It definitely feels like darkest hour before dawn type stuff here.