Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 16:48

Yes, that's why in OXB but not ONT.
But until recently they shared the same trajectory and even nominal price. CWR another. Obviously shares with multiple peaks hold some illusory promise of getting back to where they will not necessarily return.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 15:46

Brucie,

OXB chart looks like it's basing, no sign of that here.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 13:44

Oakbloke's recent comment:

Detecting disease
I see positive news about genetic breakthroughs in the potential detection of diseases like cancer, this week, but new approaches to its treatment too.

It appears to further demonstrate how genetics will profoundly change the world in the years ahead. Yet Oxford Nanopore reaches new lows yesterday.

The disconnect between investor sentiment and what I see in terms of their technical and commercial progress are quite disconnected.

I prefer to hold ONT through the IP Group (since this is at a discount) but do feel the longer-term opportunity in this area is not appreciated by the market - yet.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 13:33

simon gordon13 Apr '24 - 12:58 - 1261 of 1263
Simon, no I didn't see it. Haven't bought today's Ft either.


Re. support levels, Fingers was a great advocate; and I seem to recall 90p, after the big £ could be secondary one. Other than that, my experience is as fallible as anyone else's and more so than many!

OT, take a look at OXB which has an analogous story in terms of revival to BO as against cash runway. They recently updated very positively and results are due in end of the month. The chart looks potentially very exciting.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 13:16

Cheers, Tom.

If you take it from the peak price, 736p. What would that give?

[74tom] 13/4/2024 13:10

@Simon, how would a fibonacci entry work when shares are at an all time low?

i.e. "Fibonacci retracement levels connect any two points that the trader views as relevant, typically a high point and a low point."

Could you technically use the 238p paid by biomerieux in October as a local high & calculate you fib entry points from that?

I.e.

23.6% = 181p
38.2% = 147p
50% = 119p
61.8% = 91p
78.6% = 51p

Interestingly, if you were to use the 425p IPO price as the high instead, then the 78.6% "bottom rung" fib would be at 91p too.

I suspect ONT would have plenty of suitors, both UK based & internationally, at well above the current price.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:58

Brucie,

Did you catch that piece in the FT about Britain's biggest taxpayer, got 200 employees and setting up his own data server farm in Norway. Company made a billion pounds last year. Those type of guys might have ONT on their watchlist, looking for volume at Fibonacci entry points.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:54

Hey Brucie,

Nice to see you as well!!

Think Fibonacci would be better to find entry points as the big money might use them more than saying 100p or 90p. Pre-programmed charting algos.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 12:44

Simon, how nice to see you - virtually.
Alas I lack the means to do what you ask; or even to paste the same basic charts that I use on advfn. Which no longer seems to allow me.
That said, fibonacci is not something I'm familiar with. does anyone know of a free charting service that offers this? I don't believe Stocko offers fibonacci.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 12:39

Tom & Brucie,

Cheers!!!

-----

Can anyone do a Fibonacci chart to show potential support levels?

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 12:31

Well be sure to let us know when you're buying.
;)

[74tom] 13/4/2024 12:27

Last few thoughts from me for now;

1. The decline has been driven by low volume, with the average daily value of shares traded in 2024 sitting at £2m (2021 was £12.7m, 2022 was £5.4m and 2023 was £3m). A bottom normally forms when volume is high, so there is no capitulation from large shareholders, it's just a sustained downward pressure.

2. The heavy shorting of US listed arch rival Pacbio is undoubtedly influencing ONT's share price. From my research there appears to be a significant chance of them becoming insolvent, with their market cap of $844m exceeded by $892m of Convertible note debt, and cash of $631m declining by ~$80m per quarter. Cumulative shares held short were 49m at 28th March, which is ~18% of it's float, up from 10% this time last year. Conversely to ONT, PACB has sold off on significantly higher than average volume, as you can see from @Bamboo2,s chart above.

It will be very interesting to see how things play out this year, if PACB are commercially impaired then it can only be a good thing for ONT in my opinion.

[74tom] 13/4/2024 11:50

No doubt @bamboo2 will be able to provide many more catalysts, the most obvious being full NHS adoption for clinical screening, of which numerous pilot studies are well embedded / underway

On the share price finding a floor, well they have ~55p a share in cash & no debt

Between 2015 & their last pre IPO round in 2021, they carried out 7 fundings which all valued the company at over £1b, with a median value of £1.6b. Since then we've had the IPO at £3.4b & the material biomerieux investment 6 months ago at £2.1b

So short term shares may trade lower than £1 / £860m market cap, however given the undeniable scientific advances they have achieved in the last few years + material commercial revenue + manufacturing ability + global reach, reputation etc, I struggle to see it remaining there for long.

At present the daily order book is under constant selling pressure, with Signapore based GIC Private Limited & funds like INOV known sellers.

The anti takeover shares expire in a few months time, will this be the trigger for international funds to start aggressive accumulation?

It definitely feels like darkest hour before dawn type stuff here.

[74tom] 13/4/2024 11:33

Here is one of many potential catalysts that coincidently appeared yesterday;



🤯"Jaw-dropping" finding in @ScienceMagazine today shows certain chromosomes have telomere lengths that are consistently longer or shorter than others, shocking even
@NobelPrize winner & telomere expert Carol Greider. Telomere length plays a role in longevity & cancer.

Stand out comment in the thread;

“In my opinion, this is the most important nanopore-based paper focused on human biology since the MinION was introduced,” said Mark Akeson, co-inventor of nanopore sequencing. “It is easy to envision broad use of their telomere-length assay in the clinic.” 🧵⬇5039; 5/6

Paper here;



It certainly is easy to imagine a future where everyone is offered an annual assay to assess telomere length & determine whether their susceptibility to cancer or disease had increased & if so, what could be done to change this / monitor other aspects of their health more closely.

The value of such an assay would be off the charts IMO. Proactive, preventative, personalised medicine.

[simon gordon] 13/4/2024 10:39

IC - 6/3/24

The company now expects LSRT revenue growth of 6-15 per cent on a constant-currency basis for 2024 – equating to £180mn-£195mn at current exchange rates. Analyst consensus had previously put this number closer to £205mn. Management also pushed its adjusted Ebitda breakeven target from FY2026 to FY2027.

Furthermore, broker Numis sees cash reaching a low of £57mn in 2028, but with “alternative finance options likely available if needed”. On a positive note, the group highlighted a net increase of more than 750 active customer accounts last year – showing that there is demand for its devices in the research community.

------

What is a catalyst to drive a re-rating?

[takeiteasy] 13/4/2024 10:25

Is anyone here still thinking that 100p was about the right level - I had thought the comments slightly tongue in cheek when we were at 140-150 to still think a further drop to this level was on the cards - but now we are creaping closer to this range what indications exist to think this is a floor - or is a much further dip still possible?

Cannot be fun if you are an employee or in their saving schemes motivationally...

[ih_828197] 12/4/2024 15:45

I really hope they don't get bought, the potential is sooo big, btw considering IP Group are one of the biggest holders and they didn't sell at a 4B valuation i don't think they would be happy to accept a buyout for less then that, and usually buyout offers are for 50-100% premium on the current sp

[74tom] 12/4/2024 14:49

I think it's now reached levels with the risk reward is pretty asymmetric.

The business was valued at $2b as far back as Feb 2016;

This valuation was reinforced via multiple funding rounds, with the £70m injection from bioMérieux last October showing they have strong backers who value the technology way above the current equity value.

The technology has developed hugely since it first became a unicorn and this will only continue in the future. More importantly in my view, the branding & company reputation is global, something which undoubtedly opens doors & is very difficult to replicate / value.

Can shares trade lower? Yes of course, however even in the London market I find it hard to believe this can go lower than 70p, given that would value the equity at ~£200m. The £2.38 paid by bioMérieux 6 months back would surely be the starting point for any bidding war.

Volume will arrive at some point very soon in my view, that may be at £1 or just below it, but I just cannot fathom that this isn't being watched by numerous PE funds who could make a small fortune if they got their hands on ONT and then offloaded it to the highest bidder.

One thing appears certain, the farce of a listing in the UK is unlikely to last beyond the end of the year.

[papillon] 11/4/2024 21:08

How are you doing, bamboo2? Gold on fire. GPM doing very well.

[brucie5] 11/4/2024 19:11

They must have considered the pricing point very carefully. Presumably they want widespread adoption and that's what I take from the comment Re "the beauty of the sequencer".
But there's always a tension between too low and too high: a bit like the Laffer Curve in tax policy.

[magnum opus] 11/4/2024 15:53

"Sequence only $1000" reminds me of Leonard Lord who insisted on selling a world class product (the mini) for £400 which was less than cost price, really the machines seem to be very under priced considering PACBIO machines are $0.5m, when will the shareholders get back the hundreds of millions they sunk in returned as dividends when they sell the machines for $1000, so far the co has run up hundred of millions in losses, so I'm thinking really more of these costs should be paid in the price, would make sense to me.

[bamboo2] 11/4/2024 13:28

Just watching Jonathon Edgeworth on webinar

A few notes.

JE only does research work now, no clinical. Works part time for ONT.
Opportunity, infectious, Sepsis, pneumonia, pandemics, Bio security,

Covid drove things forward.
Metagenomics. Beauty of nanopore is sequencer only $1000
Report on pathogen after 2hrs. Culture typically 48-72 hrs

Now doing daily sequencing runs. No errors.
Preventing AMR. In half the cases antibiotic prescription changed.

Loads of q's for the q&a.

With regard to prescribing, Metagenomic testing massively reduces the decision making process, and excludes guesswork. Should become routine for all cases.

q&a

Future, cost effective use elsewhere other than ICU? Yes, needs to be widely deployed. Bio engineering is rapidly progressing. There needs to be a willingness to change. Installation is ongoing at other NHS hospitals as the trial expands.