Private punters are indeed well down the listOXB don't need them in rights issues or placingsThe share price will come into focus before incentive options are due to expire Those dates may be instructive in the planned schedule of co development |
 I'm looking at the 440k traded today (I only saw one big trade in all of that which was 123k before lunch) so a lot of smaller trades made up a day with 4x our usual volume?
Those of us with reasonable memories will remember luminaire here in the past predicting an imminent end for OXB, but then there were lots of redemptions from funds post covid and of course OXB had their biggest ever contract end, the combination of both there forcing 2 US funds to sell and we could see what was going on with the shorting chart. Not a great time, but also not really reflective of OXB's long term prospects either.
Come forward a few years and the covid vaccine contract is a memory, OXB had a little over £81m in cash at the interims and is guiding a profit for the year we are in.
Now I can believe that RR (who seems to know as much about economics as me) can drive more people into withdrawing money from funds (so more OXB selling from the likes of Liontrust to meet redemptions) but would anyone really be foolhardy enough to short OXB to make a few quid out of that when we are 2 weeks into our record revenue and return to profit year?
Surely not. We've all done mad things from time to time but short a company which every day seems to become a more attractive bid target? OK, 6 "people" think luminaire is onto something other than the Columbian marching powder, but I think we all know from past years when badger got a bit mixed up with his accounts mid-conversation that 6 votes on here doesn't necessarily mean 6 different people.
I just can't believe that anyone would go short knowing that it's within Frank's whim to put out a RNS with unaudited year end cash and a reminder that this year is a profit?
Scancell released a really great RNS the other day about one of their trials and they are down. You mention two much bigger companies.
Headlines in the grown-up papers over the last few days have the markets deciding that the pound is too expensive and talk of an emergency budget. My amateur take is that we're into more redemptions here again as Labournomics do what they always do. I don't think RR has the gold reserves or mobile phone radio spectrums or similar which Gordon Brown had to fund his giveaways.
My guess for today would be something to do with this. If it carries on then I expect Frank to issue something, or alternatively something else might render it all irrelevant. |
The mood surrounding healthcare is fairly nervous currently.Moderna disappointed yesterday but even a very solid update today by Eli Lily was poorly received with the stock currently down 7 percent.Trump is fairly scathing about pharmaceutical companies believing them to be guilty of profiteering at consumers expense.In this environment,it would be reassuring if OXB was to provide an update but in my experience,healthcare companies invariably behave as if they’ve got better things to do than keep their shareholders,especially private clients,closely informed about every little corporate development,afterall they have to issue RNSs when required.
Many years ago,i worked for a stockbroker who was then primary lead broker for Oxford Instruments which had recently been listed.I visited the company along with our analyst and others to acquaint ourselves with the company.After a tour round we had a cup of coffee with some of the senior executives.They expressed surprise that our investment analyst (along with other brokers) wished to delve quite so deeply into the company’s operations.One executive expressed the view that a third party was afterall highly unlikely to appreciate what was going on as well as the management of the company itself and the brokers would do you well to be guided by the company when it came to formulating an opinion.I don’t think that such an attitude was unusual at that time and i would be surprised if it it isn’t pretty prevalent among company managements today.Harry might have an exemplary knowledge of OXB but i would suggest he is an exception among private investors when it comes to the esoteric world of biotech.What i’m saying in rather long winded way,is that companies like OXB don’t regard updating the punters as as a priority despite being listed.Large institutional and industry shareholders can always get in touch to keep up to speed as Harry suggests and frankly,private client punters are well down the pecking order. |
Great to get such an intelligent observation? |
Shares lower than they were five years ago.Short it and laugh.Lemmings and mushrooms only. |
Sean,
I think it depends which shareholders - i.e. small shareholders then you might have something. Those who we know the names of (3%+) will all get much more regular briefings than we do. It is how it is with most companies.
It's only weeks since they reaffirmed "Profitable on an EBITDA level in 2025" in page 13 on this
A lot of shares are red today. |
Harry S Truman 13 Jan '25 - 19:46 - 9544 of 9555
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
Is OXB at the JPM event this week? |
Could be forgiven for thinking OXB management don't give a damn about shareholders. |
More than 250K shares trades by 14.30pm, last few months support at 425-430p evaporated, no trades after 14.30 as lately. Things seem a little different in 2025? |
#JPM2025CDMO map.Nice chart, and we seem to be placed with the big boys on gene therapy.Is this by T/O? HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/pharma-source_cdmo-cdmolive-activity-7284841685539250176-APjg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
But the OXB share price is all to do with OXB management? |
No UT / Auction trade at open and then 18 consecutive SINT trades. It's far from normal for us but I don't know what it means. |
Another pound of Dom's money that we are more or less back to opening again at close Phil.
Whatever this is, it seems to have precious little to do with the fundamentals of OXB. |
I wish they would give their trading update, this drop is massively frustrating. |
Not all US healthcare stocks though.Moderna fell 20% yesterday on a revised outlook for vaccine demand,falling to only 32 dollars.At the height of covid,Moderna traded in the mid 400s,the stock is well over 90 percent off its all time high.Momentum applies in both directions. |
Health care stocks back in favour atm state side as funds balance tech sanctions risk and need a safer haven. This is the total reverse of what was the so called Trump trade (CNBC analyst this week).
Given we seem to be in semi-permanent hibernation here, it would be nice as a LTBH investor for some of this to come our way - accepting we are not on any of the US healthcare ETFs that are most used there I suppose... |
Is this called a 'fair market value' - FMV for OXB ? |
PB,
Cabaletta seems a great partner for OXB, and if that CAR-T comes good (big market) then a very important one too. But none of their trials which are partnered with our tech are anywhere near pivotal (decision stage) trials yet, so Cabaletta could very well turn out to be a very lucrative partner for whoever buys OXB.
Just to add a little bit to that (the theory / guess that OXB is soon to be a Novo H company), I think we all "know" that the only reason OXB has 2 corporate/house (paid) brokers is because if as a small player you want to be invited to present at the biggest investor healthcare conference (JPM), then you pay JPM to be your joint broker.
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
My opinion (from no knowledge here) would be to guess that figure is an "off the cuff" headline figure. On most UK policies the rebuilding cost is nothing like the market value and I'm guessing the biggest problem for most will be getting a builder any time soon.
The Americans seem to deal with these things much better than the UK though - look at the hurricane which hit New Orléans, the flooding from that was a huge disaster but the president waved the magic wand of federal disaster relief and workers set off from all over the country to fix the job. Much less restriction on working too, as long as the building inspector is happy that it's done "to code" (for that state).
Additionally I would imagine that natural disaster (a bit like acts of war) is one of the many clauses where the insurance companies can dodge their full obligations - and at some point anyone of a certain age is very lucky if they haven't been on the receiving end of that. |
Unrelated question, if the insurance cost of rebuilding the luxury homes in LA costs insurers over $300B will it cause another sub prime like meltdown? |
Must be worth a bit of a pop,plus #JPM2025 weekHTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_cabaletta-strategic-priorities-in-2025-activity-7284556346044104705-ZF0P?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_androidHTTps://oxb.com/oxford-biomedica-expands-agreement-with-cabaletta-bio-adding-new-viral-vector-programme-for-cd19-car-t-therapies/ |
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