Harry S Truman 13 Jan '25 - 19:46 - 9544 of 9555
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
Is OXB at the JPM event this week? |
Could be forgiven for thinking OXB management don't give a damn about shareholders. |
More than 250K shares trades by 14.30pm, last few months support at 425-430p evaporated, no trades after 14.30 as lately. Things seem a little different in 2025? |
#JPM2025CDMO map.Nice chart, and we seem to be placed with the big boys on gene therapy.Is this by T/O? HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/pharma-source_cdmo-cdmolive-activity-7284841685539250176-APjg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
But the OXB share price is all to do with OXB management? |
No UT / Auction trade at open and then 18 consecutive SINT trades. It's far from normal for us but I don't know what it means. |
Another pound of Dom's money that we are more or less back to opening again at close Phil.
Whatever this is, it seems to have precious little to do with the fundamentals of OXB. |
I wish they would give their trading update, this drop is massively frustrating. |
Not all US healthcare stocks though.Moderna fell 20% yesterday on a revised outlook for vaccine demand,falling to only 32 dollars.At the height of covid,Moderna traded in the mid 400s,the stock is well over 90 percent off its all time high.Momentum applies in both directions. |
Health care stocks back in favour atm state side as funds balance tech sanctions risk and need a safer haven. This is the total reverse of what was the so called Trump trade (CNBC analyst this week).
Given we seem to be in semi-permanent hibernation here, it would be nice as a LTBH investor for some of this to come our way - accepting we are not on any of the US healthcare ETFs that are most used there I suppose... |
Is this called a 'fair market value' - FMV for OXB ? |
 PB,
Cabaletta seems a great partner for OXB, and if that CAR-T comes good (big market) then a very important one too. But none of their trials which are partnered with our tech are anywhere near pivotal (decision stage) trials yet, so Cabaletta could very well turn out to be a very lucrative partner for whoever buys OXB.
Just to add a little bit to that (the theory / guess that OXB is soon to be a Novo H company), I think we all "know" that the only reason OXB has 2 corporate/house (paid) brokers is because if as a small player you want to be invited to present at the biggest investor healthcare conference (JPM), then you pay JPM to be your joint broker.
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
My opinion (from no knowledge here) would be to guess that figure is an "off the cuff" headline figure. On most UK policies the rebuilding cost is nothing like the market value and I'm guessing the biggest problem for most will be getting a builder any time soon.
The Americans seem to deal with these things much better than the UK though - look at the hurricane which hit New Orléans, the flooding from that was a huge disaster but the president waved the magic wand of federal disaster relief and workers set off from all over the country to fix the job. Much less restriction on working too, as long as the building inspector is happy that it's done "to code" (for that state).
Additionally I would imagine that natural disaster (a bit like acts of war) is one of the many clauses where the insurance companies can dodge their full obligations - and at some point anyone of a certain age is very lucky if they haven't been on the receiving end of that. |
Unrelated question, if the insurance cost of rebuilding the luxury homes in LA costs insurers over $300B will it cause another sub prime like meltdown? |
Must be worth a bit of a pop,plus #JPM2025 weekHTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_cabaletta-strategic-priorities-in-2025-activity-7284556346044104705-ZF0P?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_androidHTTps://oxb.com/oxford-biomedica-expands-agreement-with-cabaletta-bio-adding-new-viral-vector-programme-for-cd19-car-t-therapies/ |
Temporary, it's all temporary. The big cheeses back after the winter break, showing the underlings what they do. Same after every holiday period. |
These external metrics and / or (closer to home) whatever HMG's cabinet of all-stars might have in their sights next is probably relevant, but...
Tomorrow is 14 months since the last OXB insider bought a single share.
You all know my guess about that one, but from whatever side I approach the conundrum, I always end up thinking that the apparent OXB news rationing last year and the longest period I can ever remember for not a single insider to have bought a share is very much related to a bigger scenario which is still a mystery to us.
We as shareholders here on this BB know that we are now a fortnight into our all-time record revenue year. So we know that and I'm pretty sure that the people with enough shares / clout to be briefed privately by the company will know that too (how many have sold over the last year?).
But for the other 95% of the potential market of OXB buyers out there who either don't read ADVFN or don't have more money than Oprah Winfrey, how would they guess that OXB are on track for something like £180m in sales this year and a profit?
As the board's job (and especially Frank's job spec) is to do the best thing for the company's shareholders, then my conclusion remains that whatever is stopping the insiders buying is also stopping Frank blowing the company's trumpet in anything other than what he had to do at the Jefferies conference, which was basically a pared down interims presentation with no financials.
When was the last time we saw / heard of a new note put out from a covering broker? As those happen after the CEO/CFO has talked to those analysts, then can we assume that OXB isn't doing that either?
So we still don't know why the insiders can't can't buy and why OXB don't want to talk about being in a record year.
My assumption is that one of these mornings a RNS will clear that up, but of course it doesn't have to be at 7:00am does it? |
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/watchlist?tab=Related&id=a33pk2&ocid=ansMSNMoney11&duration=1D&src=b_secdans&relatedQuoteId=a33pk2&relatedSource=MlAlMost people use the well advertised VIX to gauge market sentiment.Yes,its volatile but as you can discern,over the years,its been a good deal higher (fearful) than currently.The VIX can be employed as a hedging instrument so its fairly erratic. |
is this the mood amongst folks here - amazing how things change so quickly with US investors...there was initially a big jump with the DT arrival was there not? |
What's Blackrock's involvement?Well, if my memory serves me well they control more than a dozen funds each invested in OXB. While it may be illegal to control the stock price through a single fund, there could be some funds buying and some funds selling, naturally ' for their own individual targets' (having the overall effect of holding the price down that we see) No knowledge. Just my ramblings. |
Jez,
If I was 100% sure then I would sell everything else and pile into OXB, so I have no problem with a different view. I obviously have less doubts than you though. As I have said before I'd really quite like us all to be here one year from now looking at the rewards of owning a c£250m revenue company which earns a better than 20% EBITDA margin.
Sean,
Blackrock buy in after the Novo Holdings chief says publicly that he intended to use the windfall weight loss drug profits to buy up carefully selected speciality service companies to the biotech / pharma sector.
Blackrock would be very unlikely to be following OXB. I'm pretty certain that they would be following the boss of a 150bn investment fund. It would be very easy for them to see what Novo Holdings owned in their growth portfolio and take a view on which of those Novo might be about to take further. Remember that Novo H had already bid for world's no3 CDMO when Blackrock crossed that threshold. Maybe they also thought that a speciality C> CDMO might bolt very nicely into the remains of Catalent at Novo Holdings.
Isn't that what hedge funds do - look at situations like this and place a bet? |
Can somebody explain to me the significance of Blackrock being shareholders please. |
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