Harry - if that's the case, and RFK isn't an anti-vaxer, why doesn't he sue ap for this (an example - there are many such):
hxxps://apnews.com/article/robert-f-kennedy-vaccines-trump-rfkjr-7f8dcb25de76a5a70710d22bbc63f6fa |
 Greetings all,
In what has been a rather unpleasant share price meltdown these past few weeks in which I have been a solid holder (congratulations for those who could see this coming and sold out in the high 300s) - I have a little bit of news which, although good, I doubt will make much of an impact except to our own confidence.
One of OXB's analysts Panmure Liberum upgraded their price target today to 560p and reiterated their BUY recommendation. Analyst Julie Simmonds is forecasting GBP162m of revenue this year (which many of us think is cautious/conservative but which would nevertheless be a 27% increase on the estimated GBP128m last year) and positive EBITDA of GBP3.2m - a lower figure than previously forecasted after factoring in an additional GBP4m on the cost base as a result of OXB's increased investment ahead of rising customer demand. Shares look good value today amidst strong revenue growth ahead; a strong customer base and more late stage client partners and growth in the broader CDMO market.
Lets hope the end of this melt down is close
x |
apple,
I'm of a similar view but I've seen so many of these things now that I won't say I'm indifferent - I just accept it as what it is.
As it's an interest of yours I'm sure you will have heard of Dr Bob Malone, one of the signatures on the original patents for certain applications of messenger RNA. During covid Bob stuck his head above the parapet and said words to the effect that there were some known issues with mRNA and if it's a calculated risk to try to help some sick individual who is already in a bad way then fair enough, but that you shouldn't be giving it to 100's of millions of healthy people as a prophylactic as you would be asking for trouble. They tried to destroy him too and then just ridiculed him. |
Super,
I think the first amendment allows citizens to have a very negative personal opinion of someone or something, but I'm pretty sure stating claimed facts is not an opinion / not covered. I'll add here that I'm not a lawyer, so take this with the usual pinch of salt, but I think that's basically it in a nutshell - i.e. everyone is allowed their own opinion, but once you go further and say that you are stating facts then you are on your own.
Libel does happen there. Henry Ford famously sued a journalist who in print labelled him an uneducated ignoramus. Henry (obviously a very wealthy man - as well as actually being an uneducated ignoramus) hired the best lawyers money could buy and won, but annoyed the trial judge so much in the process that he awarded him $1 in damages after the verdict.
It is a strange country though. I remember reading during the election that one of Trump's 23 felonies was that he borrowed $17m short term against Mar-a-Lago without getting it officially valued first. The lender made no complaint, said they were happy and would be pleased to do it again should he have a similar short term need, but the investigating NY DA who was searching for past crimes prosecuted him for felony (was it wire fraud?) long after the loan had been repaid. |
Apologies Harry - I didn't mean to mislead re. Kennedy and anti-vax.
A few points:
I am really referring to perception rather than fact or likely action, as that is what the market is trading on at the moment in regards to most Trump changes. And we agree on that point.
'Anti-vax' is obviously a catch-all and includes a wide range of people. For example I believe we need to do more research on combined vaccinations (each has been well-researched for child safety, but the combinations not so much). ie I am 'vax-cautious'.
He has been on the record re. vax linked to autism and some Covid remarks. He may have partially back-pedalled on these.
I am massively with him on improving food quality, and consumer protections. The large US healthy-food deserts need addressing, so maybe he can persuade Trump to focus on such things! |
Harry - but nor has he sued anyone for what's been said about him. More a function of the first amendment than anything to do with the facts. |
I don't wish to put a downer on the all singing all dancing, up and coming yearly's . I have been here 14 years and every year it is always muted that OXB are saving the big announcement for the financial report. It has usually disappointed spectacularly with a negative reaction to the share price Don't get me wrong, i hope this year will be different and will be delighted if it is. I have done well out of OXB and i am hoping for a quick return from my latest investment. This is a just don't build your hopes up to high post!!!! |
Just to throw one in here from my pre-results on/off hiatus...
Kennedy isn't in any way, shape or form anti-vax, but that is the mud which has stuck to him and mostly from "news" outlets which we now know took money from all kinds of dark sources in exchange for a narrative.
I've read his book and what he is (consistently) is very pro-child safety. He doesn't like the revolving door deal between the FDA and the US drug companies where they get to make fortunes from some drugs approved by the FDA which are poorly tested / have dubious efficacy at the same time as being given indemnities against any harm by the FDA/other US reguators. He's also extremely critical of certain trials (one in particular) where 3rd world kids were used as little better than lab experiments.
Kennedy is a lawyer who makes clear and direct accusation after accusation at Fauci in print about everything from AIDS drug trials to childhood vaccines. Fauci threatened to sue. Kennedy said "please do and let's hear it all in court". Fauci's lawyers dropped the suits and then the outgoing Biden (who likely didn't know what he was signing) pardoned Fauci for anything he may have done during his career, known or unknown, in the service of his country. A very comprehensive pardon? To a public servant there for US citizen safety?
Biden never mentioned Fauci's service including funding labs in China, the Ukraine and other places doing experiments which would have been illegal in the USA.
But nobody cares about any of that and Kennedy is just anti-vax. I'd recommend reading the book - and remembering that those accusations against people and drug companies have been in print for a very long time in the most litigious country in the world and nothing has happened to him except news readers labelling him anti-vax. |
marcus thanks for noting biontech article. As BioNTech had paused already I guess/hope this has nothing to do with Kennedy. I am exposed to mRNA through MRNA, and Trump is a mixed bag - on the one hand Kennedy anti-vax, but on the other Trump wants to link his administration to a big cancer development, and FDA surprised most people by not yet approving MRNA's Merck partnership treatment and requiring phase 3.
Yes Brucie's point on the ONT read across is interesting - and indeed takeiteasy's question also. I don't know enough about OXB to understand NIH risk, for example.
Finally, I note that Ameriprise also appeared to sell STB aggressively approximately at the bottom. In both cases I wonder what proportion of the portfolio, ie how big the relevant fund(s) are. ie if part of a strategic repositioning their losses may only cost a few bps but save a chunk of fund manager and analyst time (for people on a million plus a year I guess). |
Key Differences:
• Spire relies on UK-based healthcare demand → OXB is more globally exposed (CDMO clients in multiple regions).
• Spire faces NHS funding constraints & wage inflation → OXB’s cost structure is different (biotech CDMO margins).
• Spire is already profitable, but OXB is still in the growth phase → Investors may view them differently. |
BioNTech's RNA malaria vaccine trial hit by FDA hold |
Sometimes these smaller and midcap stocks hit what can best be described as an air pocket.I admit i sold 70 per cent of my holding recently(shame ! shame !)at around 375 not because i had lost faith in the company but because i was nervous of the market.My first repurchase at 330p at the end of last week was premature.What is noticeable when selling (albeit volume has picked up of late)was that even a manageable sale order of 5000 shares at a time was showing up as the largest morning trade up to 11 o clockish.Even for a private punter,OXB is a conspicuously thin market and thus very vulnerable to a change of sentiment. |
Maybe the large buys are shorts closing |
Harry S Truman5 Mar '25 - 09:56 - 10042 of 10043
-----------------------------------------------
Thanks Harry. I haven't held these for a while but do drop by from time to time to read your excellent continued coverage. I did well from the £2 level last year but lost thereafter lost conviction to hold despite changing my mind a few times. Same with ONT, which I think is now a complete and utter bargain. Lack of dividends at both, however, makes me less patient when the share price goes adrift; so I tend to restrict myself to very clear chart situations which can either materialise or not, but either way one has a steer as to what you're there for. If this returns to £2, I would almost certainly buy. For those like yourself who know the story through and through, these gyrations are just noise and you deserve to do well from your tenacious approach as well as your habitual courtesy, for which, thanks. |
gh,
I think some of the answers are explained with "he who has chequebook is king".
If for example there is a big BMS deal which we don't yet know about, the timing of that news will be in their control and not ours.
I'm sure I can remember JD's frustration in one webcast where he lamented that they were doing something with Novartis which you could find on the Novartis website but which OXB weren't allowed to talk about.
I'm disappointed that the regularly updated industry standard KPI table which was supposed to replace the old RNS news flow seems to be a results day chop and so twice per year (which to me is stretching it a bit for "regularly updated") but there's nothing I can do. |
Morning Brucie. It's a mad world post-covid, but imho if you don't have to sell and can wait it out then anything with prospects has a good chance of making it to better times. |
I'm in stuck record here again I know SJ, but I don't think we will hear anything new from OXB (anything where they have control over the timing) until the results 5 weeks today.
I also don't think they care too much about the share price as long as the holders with enough shares to get phone calls from OXB remain happy.
If someone is selling millions of shares out of necessity then there's nothing at all I can do other than watch the show.
My guess for 5 weeks today is that it will be very similar to the results day when they announced the ABL purchase / deal.
So I think to make results for last year which are fine but simply mid-previous guidance (i.e. nothing to shake the world), it will be like September '23 when they spent as little time as possible breezing through the results before saying "but look at this" (maybe this time the BMS deal?) and then a list of some of our new partners. |
Looks like a historical support here at £3. One needs to hope so, since the next large support is back at £2; and a very visible 'batman' ears pattern overhead. ONT has just been crushed below £1 level, despite great revenues and margin and an active billionaire buyer in the market. I don't look for sense in these markets. |
That 150/- could well be a delayed sale from yesterday.These markets are something akin to handling a dinghy in choppy waters.Attempting to stabilise around 3 quid. |
Years of experience tells me that this might be a big volume day. |
Now a 150k share trade which ADVFN thinks is a sale, but surely not? |
100k share trade first thing, but presumably a buy judging by the reaction? |
We can't say for sure, but Lucy's presentation is almost certainly going to be very similar to Frank's from the 19th of November at Jefferies' bash. I'd bet a pound that the only difference in the corporate presentation between then and now will be looking back at the '24FY rather than towards it and a few minor tweaks.
I'd bet more than a pound that there's nothing newer than what was in the trading update a fortnight ago yesterday by RNS. Same message / different audience.
I'm reasonably confident that Frank is planning (allowed by our pharma partners?) a big show on the 9th of April, so I'm looking forward to that. Lucy's next week I think we will know already.
We will have countless things on the boil which it's difficult / impossible to guess with any level of confidence, but OXB has increased guidance and recruited during a period when lots of others in our sector have been doing the opposite. That should be a comfort blanket.
But we plainly have a persistent seller (maybe the one I guessed at yesterday) and to paraphrase / misquote SJ here, we are doing very well but nobody with deep pockets is looking / fishing in small cap. What can you do?
3 things we do to some extent "know" and those are:-
Serum spent a lot of money to get an option on one of our biggest bioreactors for 10 years. It's unlikely they did that on a whim, but it has been in play with nothing happening for so long now that we sort of dismiss it that way. It could still be very big for us.
BMS seem to have come to us as a preferred supplier to make Bluebird's vector for an approved / commercial large market CAR-T drug, very likely the rest of their Celgene pipeline too and very likely also for the half of Juno's pipeline which wasn't already OXB's own LentiVector. That remains to be seen / proven, but if true that's a lot of work and some is late stage.
Finally, and I know this one gets mixed reviews, but our biggest shareholder has said that they intend to buy up service companies in our sector and have also said that they aim to double the size of their newly bought CDMO business within 5 years. A profitable bolt-on which comes with Novartis and BMS as preferred vector supplier for approved commercial drugs?
The outlook on the little we do know is really quite bright, but if all three of those line up?
I think we will have nothing new of significance until the results though.
Those of you with the stamina to get through my posts know that my long term primary target is simply for OXB to get back into the FTSE250, where visibility is much better and a lot more institutions can invest (and so actually look).
We have no chance at all for close of play for today/tomorrow now, so that's another chance at a quarterly review missed, but the beginning of June does seem very possible if the results presentation and first 2025 guidance is what we hope for. |
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