Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 20:51

PB, it's good news but orphan status is a way to encourage companies to develop drugs which otherwise might not be an attractive potential market.

So it's nice that Cabaletta got that, but they still have to complete trials and get a good result before going to the FDA for review (basically applying for a medicine licence). It will be a while yet.

[pharmaboy3] 20/3/2024 19:58

HTTps://oxb.com/oxford-biomedica-expands-agreement-with-cabaletta-bio-adding-new-viral-vector-programme-for-cd19-car-t-therapies/

[cousinit] 20/3/2024 19:32

Apologies Harry - my thoughts were stuck in transit

[marcusl2] 20/3/2024 17:30

Orchard did well H.

[brucie5] 20/3/2024 16:46

Pharma thanks. Beyond the good news for all those who might be helped by this - one sincerely hopes!- could you spell out the relevance to OXB?

[pharmaboy3] 20/3/2024 16:43

Good news HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_cabaletta-bio-announces-fda-granted-orphan-activity-7176178812890554370-Gl3r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 15:40

I worked out how many I thought they had left in a previous post (6147). With no great confidence I thought it was 593,060 shares (476,924 + 116,136) at $17 per share.

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 15:34

Necessity in very rare diseases Marcus. There would be no new treatments for very rare diseases if there was no chance of a biotech covering research / development costs and then making a profit (remembering that a big proportion of trial drugs fail).

[marcusl2] 20/3/2024 15:28

Orchard sets new gene therapy price tag at $4.25M—the steepest of any drug in the US

Metachromatic leukodystrophy OTL 200

MLD affects roughly one in every 40,000 people in the U.S.

Orchard— was bought by Japan’s Kyowa Kirin for $387.4 million in October


OXB should have kept its 3.9% stake maybe?

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 15:16

Jez,

I know you have been here for a very long time and don't need a history lesson from me, but OXB have had more than their share of lemons over the last couple of years and it's about time the pendulum stopped and started back the other way.

We were lauded about what we did for AZ during covid, then punished when that stopped. We bought an AAV to get into a far more lucrative market than just LV and then saw the sole late stage customer which came as part of the deal go out of business.

That one customer was worth something like 20m per year to OXB and it would have knocked our original US plan back at least a year.

Two positives to think about:-

1) How good is the rest of the business when OXB can eat the loss of that late stage AAV customer, then formulate a plan to fill the gap by moving early stage LV work to Boston and move on?

2) It gives you an idea (just an idea as all these projects are slightly different) of what the late stage customers announced today are worth to OXB.

To get back to your point, you may have read one of my previous thoughts of the day which was basically the scenario of OXB finding themselves in a position which is so far removed from market perception, that they are worried nobody will believe them. So they are effectively at present in a news management type operation where every release gets a little bit better, leading up to the FY presentation at the end of April (about the only one that the financial press all follow) which will be 10mins on the 2023 figures and then a presentation showing what "the" CGT CDMO has achieved and is going to do.

[jezmundo] 20/3/2024 13:48

A very welcome update, if a little neutral. You get the feeling there is more to come, just waiting to burst out.

[reddirish] 20/3/2024 12:59

I've bought a fairly sizeable position over the past week, recycling the gains made from a takeover offer on SPT. Although the markets are different, the offer is to eyes similar: core services for larger corporates, with significant regulatory/ quality barriers. The only niggling concern I have is that there is a great deal of spare capacity in the general vaccine manufacturing market post COVID, but am satisfied that the contract development aspect of the CDM offer is a strength for OXB given it's long propiatory history.

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 11:48

I think you are spot on with that post Sean.

Important to remember bio / pharma timescales which have only been rushed once during my lifetime (for covid vaccines), but this looks tremendous to me.

When they told us on the 5th of March that the results would be 29th April, then that struck me as a long notice. The reason might have be as simple as a wait for the auditors (with the complications of ABL joining) or it could have been that they expected something to happen which they wanted to announce first and maybe this was it.

It all looks exceptionally promising.

[seanje] 20/3/2024 11:30

Like Harry the words commercial launch jumped out at me and the memory of the announcement of the Commercial supply contract for Kymriah. It not only turned this company around, but the income from that one contract became OXBs bread and butter. It seems like we are now looking at the possibility of multiple commercial supply contracts. That could take us to another level entirely.

[cousinit] 20/3/2024 11:09

A few interesting things in the announcement.

These are additional and the reference is to medium term guidance. We know that it can easily take 6-9 months to do the preparatory work before production can gear up in earnest.

This suggests that this might be an acceleration of revenue compared to what they had expected when announcing the medium term targets. Should also increase confidence in the revenue visibility of those.

Also mentions potential milestone payments. I thought that OXB were moving away from these in simplifying contractual terms? I seem to recall that the scale of the miss last year was that some milestone payments that were anticipated were "delayed" and that Frank indicated that only "contracted" revenues would be included in the CDMO style guidance going forward. So could milestone payments now be "bunce" as and when they do arrive?

[steeplejack] 20/3/2024 10:12

“I guess it would need more flesh on the bone”


The analysts will follow this up and get more information .I like the analogy with Rolls Royce.I actually got impatient and sold stock at 3 quid after the stock sidetracked for a few months.Sinisterly,the shares almost immediately bounced by a third.Anyway (after numerous averagings) i’ll be sitting it out with OXB.I really feel that the worst that can happen is a low ball bid.

[brucie5] 20/3/2024 09:17

Well, the dual perspectives are clearly laid out this morning: between Harry or Redwing, take your pick. Either this morning's RNS was a cynical and even slightly desperate piece of showmanship, or a genuine attempt to keep the market abreast of the positive momentum that fully justifies their earlier reassurances about rising sales volumes and margins.
So far, market seems to favour Redwing and so I guess it would need more flesh on the bone to make it want to bite.
Nevertheless, taken together with exited shorts, this is very likely to strengthen the case for a bottoming chart.
Even RR had to start its recovery somewhere and few are able to muster the strength of their convictions at the bottom.
Watch for the development of the big W. The final cup will have a handle on it.
;)

[marcusl2] 20/3/2024 09:11

March 19, 2024 - A meeting of the United States FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) voted to expand the approval of Abecma and Carvykti, two types of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapies, for multiple myeloma, allowing them to be used as an earlier line of defense.

[ygor705] 20/3/2024 08:25

Smart timing by management to make this release now. I'm encouraged because it demonstrates that management look to have good commercial as well as technical skills.

[encarter] 20/3/2024 08:22

It's basically the same news as 5th March. All a bit pointless. Maybe they are planning a placing at 1.50?

[chillpill] 20/3/2024 08:21

I think they are increasingly confident on the financial side- that’s why we could see a big re-rating.