Good question Sean.
I would have thought that OXB know the revenue figure for this year to the penny now (unless there are some invoices out there which are due in the next fortnight and still to be banked).
But would they say anything other than "on track to close the year in line with previous guidance" (or similar)?
If we get a news RNS then I would have thought they will tag a trading update on there, but then we're into the odds of news in the last week before Christmas.
I appreciate that it seems a bit contradictory, but long before OXB give us the 2024 preliminary results at the end of Q1, what the market is really interested in is the guidance for 2025. We saw that first hand when the price dropped before the record 2021 results and all through 2022 on the end of the vaccine contract.
Happily we are basically looking at the reverse of that this time (loss for 2024 / record revenue for 2025). |
Are we not due a promised quarterly business update? Wouldnt that be a good time to release news? |
Appreciate that we've already done the shepherds having the chat with the angel of the EU competitions regulator. Surely this today is the star in the east for OXB? (Copenhagen being east for those of us in Blighty at least).
www.catalent.com/catalent-news/catalent-and-novo-holdings-fulfill-all-regulatory-closing-conditions-for-pending-transaction/
Not long now imho until the wise men (and female men, before someone starts a petition) begin loading the gold onto the Camels. |
Mr 230p let us down this evening then...... |
Incredible, trading this afternoon. 10p drop in price, over 200K shares traded in 420 deals. Will it finish at 430 at 4.30? |
There are some real Shenanigans going on today between the market makers in OXB .
Unusual price action . I suggest it's possibly going to break meaningfully one way or another but my sense tells me it will be "higher ".
Tuco. |
Or two 'people' (banks) working for the same client? |
Maybe they are one and the same person. |
Last few trades continue to illustrate we have a buyer who seems to only want to buy at exactly 4.30 max and a seller who will not sell below exactly 4.30 min....quite strange form of headlock for the share still... |
Let's not. I'd far rather see OXB grow it's revenues to close to £300m over the next 4-5 years, building a growing portfolio of royalties on multi- billions of third party sales based on it's technologies, and being rated in the markets accordingly. |
Let’s get a bidding war going! |
Aside from internal overhauls, Lonza will also seek to “elevate the importance of bolt-on M&A,” while adopting an “impartial view on organic and inorganic opportunities for future growth,” the CDMO said. |
Well there we are. 4.30 at 4.30pm! I just can't wait until tomorrow!! |
A few words today from Frank. |
Indeed. My comment on wealth referred specifically to related investments in the CGT market! With the current rediscovery of socialism as a means of economic (mis) management there will be previous little wealth creation elsewhere! |
Plutonian,
I know you know, but just for everybody else - clinical supply for Arcellx under the Licence and Supply Agreement (LSA) means trial material which will likely be low single digit millions to supply a batch for each trial. Basically a one off for each trial stage at best.
Commercial supply announced back in March (likely for J&J) will be continuous to meet demand when it starts and should be double digit millions yearly once they get established and that will continue for the commercial life of the drug. |
in vivo CAR-T cell engineering. |
CARVYKTI®▼ (ciltacabtagene autoleucel; cilta-cel) demonstrated significantly higher rates of minimal residual disease negativity compared to standard therapies in the phase III CARTITUDE-4 study.
We MAY be contracted to manufacture vector for J&J/Legend which is already approved, but there are safety issues.
Gilead/Arcellx’s Anito-Cel’s Differentiated Safety Profile Challenges J&J/Legend’s Carvykti
We ARE contracted to manufacture vector for Gilead/Arcellx which has just started phase III iMMagine-3 study. |
 Red,
I agree with you about the feelgood side of this, particularly with j-ALL (our original Novartis lead indication) and CF, which both overwhelmingly affect kids.
However, and I realise I'm risking smallcrow holding a rally about this view, your last point there goes hand in hand with the discoveries. If you look at the managed economies then everything is done by committee and although they have very occasionally dropped on something good, mostly the only people who gain are those who sit on the committees and their families.
In the market economies then entrepreneurs see a market opportunity and take a risk which is usually funded by people like us who take part in the funding rounds in hopes of a good return. That system provides many companies chasing the same targets and although most fail it is a system which has delivered us almost everything we take for granted.
In my humble view it's far superior to the state approved hairstyles and the same suits all made in state factories. Unfortunately though there are an increasing number of youngsters around these days who are keen to give that system another try. |
Excellent news commercially: and also, let's all pause and consider, for the people and families who are being given new life because of these technical achievements. There is so much potential for gene therapies emerging now, across a huge range of previously unaddressable conditions, after many years of hard work and vast levels of investment. The next decade will see extraordinary benefits to health. (And, selfishly, to wealth!) |
Just a quick one for this morning:-
We're all familiar with the 20th March RNS
"Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in OxBox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.".
As was noted at the time there were only 2 newly approved CAR-T drugs for multiple myeloma with only one of those being "new" to OXB (i.e. not BMS) so the overwhelming probability being the RNS referred to J&J.
J&J news out last night
To get on the trials a patient needs to have been failed by all previous treatments and therefore by default is in a very poorly state. 90% of those evaluable (i.e. stayed in the trial) having undetectable disease this long post-treatment with that statistical power number is an astonishing result.
Almost certainly now it will be rolled out in earlier stage patients who are pre-tested as likely to be refractory to standard treatment and will also by default be much less poorly when they get this (currently last resort) treatment.
MM is one of the more common soft cancers and J&J will sell a lot of this. QED the people who make the programming vector will need to make a lot of that too. |
It will definitely finish at 4.30, LSE rules. |
Got it in one DC :) |
Up this morning (as usual) drop due in an hour or so. Up again this afternoon. Likely finish at ... err... £4.30? |
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