Defence at £4.30 battling heroically to hold the line firm - no Dad's army here but the real troops :) |
The way I had it explained to me is that JPM are an OXB broker purely so we get invited to "the" biggest investor healthcare conference of the year. Pay JPM to be your broker and you get an invite, but a small cap bio is not really a stock that JPM would cover in depth, so you get what you get which is basically this.
Novo boomed massively on being the first to market with the GLP-1 weight loss drug in that biggest market. I think their up and down since is to do with people trying to work out what the real price is rather than anything post-covid related. |
P75/DC, keep the small punters out....make it all look so dull and boring and when we are at deemed "suitable" price flex to uber bullish in the broker reports, we all buy in when they sell out....is that not how it goes small punters buy high and sell low? |
Nice jump. Big trade? |
Lack of the means to do their diligent research? |
I just don’t get why the brokers are being so pessimistic for share price targets. |
If so GJ, perhaps move on and find a different broker.... |
Is that an update from today. If so and if JPMC (joint corporate broker) then a "neutral" recommendation is a poor update. |
Harry, the Novo share price has been some surprise recently to fall from 1.40 to 1.00 and now back up a little. You have to say at some point this is all look very over sold and due a recovery bounce across the sector. I see the EWI trust is moving ahead quite a bit now which supports the view that parts of the small cap bio is drawing some interest too. Traders are happy to take quite a decent number of shares for only a small discount to the bid, so there are buyers here atm even though the market looks so thin.... |
SMALL CAP
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JPMorgan raises Oxford BioMedica price target to 490 (450) pence - 'neutral' |
been a very tough year for the health sector 2024 YTD vs S&P 500 - so we are swimming well against the tide as they say...keeps expectations realistic for me I guess... |
A day of completely piddling trades. |
Is it quite unusual, or surprising, that the track of the share price each day is so similar. Up first thing, then promptly down significantly, fairly flat during the afternoon, then up at end of day. |
Where on earth do you get your information from luminaire? At worst he has made an amusing aside referencing Trump.
On the other hand I prefer Trump and his cohort of (relatively) amature appointees to the failed bunch that have previously enjoyed the power in the USA. So far, he has not used the Law as an instrument to attack his enemies, started a war, or imprisoned his political enemies. Although he has criticised big pharma (or rather his allies have) but can you say without crossing your fingers that they always behave well? |
Up there with your previous post that OXB is going down and that I personally should take some responsibility for it. Not aged well with next year being record sales and a profit.
I'm all for release into the community but I don't think you should be given internet access. |
Not long now and Harry's mate becomes the most powerful man in the world appointing science denying conspiracy theorists who want to decimate the pharma industry. |
I'm all for it and good luck to them Phil. We know these first 3 weeks of December are almost always a very slow time of year, so anything to cheer up the festivities is more than welcome. My one humbug point would be the obvious one that if this initiative had come from the board then it would be on the main website and not LinkedIn, but someone is giving it a go and well done to them. Every little helps - as one of the supermarkets used to say.
My focus this week is what the EU regulator says about the Novo purchase of Catalent, with the deadline being Friday. If that does get rubber stamped then that just leaves the FTC and if they also say yes (two big ifs there I know) then I continue to have this feeling that Novo's plan for the C> arm of Catalent also involves OXB. |
Harry, I think they’ve nicked your idea!!
𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 "𝟭𝟮 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗫𝗕"!
This festive season, we’re celebrating OXB’s incredible achievements, milestones, and innovations with a nod to the classic “12 Days of Christmas” song, thought to have roots in both English and French traditions—a fitting reflection of our global presence, which includes two sites in France!
LinkedIn
Running from December 1st to December 12th, we’ll share a daily post revealing a key milestone or fact about OXB. From ground-breaking scientific advancements to state-of-the-art manufacturing, we’re excited to highlight how we’re driving the cell and gene therapy field forward. |
Oxford Biomedica (OXB:LN) (OXBDF) Price Target Raised to GBP5 at Stifel
November 30, 2024 1:40 AM EST
Stifel analyst James Orsborne raised (you have to pay for the rest). |
 takeiteasy,
Honest opinion, I would have thought not. There *may* be an unintended effect here of OXB being held in an effective closed period because of something which our major shareholder *might possibly* be currently doing, but pick your own odds on that.
There could easily be other explanations of why not a single OXB insider has bought shares since Novo bid for Catalent. Personally, I think there is something going on, but I'm guessing based around what little is in the public domain.
Re OXB's 3 year trial by ordeal, then I would say where we are today is much more likely to be a pick and mix of this:-
1) Covid gave and it took away. OXB was saved by being one of the 11 bulk suppliers of the Oxford University vaccine for AZ. That brought us enough money to ride this out.
2) Covid put everything non-essential on hold - so all our previous work went away with all our public partners put on hold, with the exception of Novartis which was an approved drug and so essential work. Maybe you remember the stat, but c87% of our bioprocessing work was for AZ.
3) When that stopped abruptly for political reasons the market reacted accordingly as we lost that work whilst our previous work was still on hold in an industry battered by pandemic emergency measures.
4) Whilst limping out of this with (very fortunately) the vaccine manufacturing cash windfall, OXB took the best advice available which was that post pandemic they couldn't just rely on being "the LentiVector company" and needed a foot in the bigger market of AAV.
5) That was addressed by buying the AAV rights and manufacturing facilities from Homology medicines in a deal which would cost us over 180m USD, but was sweetened a lot by the continuing work in supporting Homology's pipeline. Homology then went out of business and that work was lost. We still have to pay them the final 10% in about 4 months, but fortunately it is now very little.
6) So, our pre-pandemic regular work (which was mostly LV) is finally back now and the Homology situation has been turned around with new AAV customers and the US plant being expanded into a LV hub, but that has been 3 years of walking through treacle whilst carrying an elephant and the markets don't like that.
7) It took us c20 years to break into the midcap (FT250) index, with the better visibility / coverage that brings. It took us only a couple of years to get booted out again, mainly thanks to meddling politicians and the covid fiasco explained above.
8) This is why my sole hope / target / goal for this year (it's in a January post if you want to check) was to get back into the FT250, because in small cap very few people (other than PIs like us) look or follow. So all the big investors will remember us falling away after covid, but won't know anything else - unless they happen to listen to Frank at Jefferies or JPM out of the other 40 presentations that day.
9) Happily money does talk and companies sell on forward earnings. We know that the mid guidance for the year we are 11 months into is £130m and that next year will be more than 35% better. If it's c£180m then that's our record revenue year by close to £40m and OXB say they will return to profit. Two big things there and a CDMO which turns over £180m and makes a profit is not a small cap stock - so that should resolve itself this year if nothing else overtakes us first. |
Re: 9295 - is the only thing holding this up in the absence of news the Novo link. Chart at the top of the page shows where we are now was a support tested multiple times during 2023 so a resistance to us now to try to break through - some major reaction if we can get above 4.50 I suspect if folks follow momentum technicals...
Clutching straws probably :) |
Jez,
The first 2 there are RNS (hence the dates). The interims and Jefferies you can find via RNS.
I accept that they haven't announced everything. Whether that is related to the fact that none of them have bought shares this year or not I don't know.
They have hinted at malaria in replies to questions (re number of people in that chain). Sooner or later they will tell us who the second CAR-T commercial deal is for as that is quite important, but the timing will be down to the customer else OXB would already have released it. You know my current pet theory as to why they are quiet and not buying shares already. Could also be something completely different. |
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