With the budget / budget management campaign (pre-budget leaks of much worse) now over, I think the 3 points listed below will determine whether the new year's eve party (2 months tonight) is M&S best ever sausage rolls or Tesco value.
1) This coming Wednesday 6th Nov - are we back in the relevant MSCI index?
2) If so, will the 12 trading days following that help carry us back into the FTSE250 at the quarterly review cut-off at close of play on the 22nd? (likely more than 530p required).
3) The ever present chance that OXB will release a market sensitive news RNS prior to either of the above. |
In their previous sales to meet fund redemptions there has often been a news release saying that they have sold the same tiny percentage of everything they hold. |
and sell their top performing share lols...active management in practice lols :) |
So more Liontrust redemptions then - maybe in anticipation of a worse budget? |
Might come to nothing and I'm sure some of you remember from the 10 days of interims countdown, but... GeoVax
This was in the Telegraph today under all the budget stuff
So, first case of the new, easier to catch, monkeypox now in the UK.
Remember GeoVax's new universal covid vaccine?
Basically TOGOF (take one get one free) - i.e. it does Monkey Pox too as their CEO said in that video presentation
Who is making the vaccines for the trial?
OXB. |
The budget could have been worse and in the years ahead probably will be :) |
Well, the Budget bounce back didn't last long, did it? |
Beinng European for a moment..... |
Just like Mr. President I suspect, and certainly myself. |
I really really wish I was a good day trader and had the b*lls to sell the tops hold cash and nip in on the dips...an exciting adrenaline ride compared to LTBH....just not brave enough sadly.... |
At least we have bounced off the 400 level. |
#9021 Actually a Carpenter, small black creature. What does that imply. |
Public sector Good - Private sector Bad
State Care Good - Personal Effort Bad
Just like Animal Farm (but with different adjectives) |
 It's a strange old world gutterhead.
I have relatives in Canada who are liberal people and even they struggle with what they thought they were getting vs what they got. Appreciate that one is more like a family dynasty thing, but even so.
I guess most of us here of a certain age will know people who have either retired to Spain or winter there rather than enjoy the UK weather. I have a very good friend (who is now permanently tanned) that I have regular chats with. He tells me about locals he knows who are mystified by their leaders. The economy in Spain isn't great. Overall unemployment is 11% but in young people it's 25%. Within Spain there is this mysterious body funding popular protests to kill their very important tourist industry and their PM has said that he wants Spain to give citizenship to half a million refugees because they are the "engine of the economy". None of them believe any of it but wonder where the orders are coming from.
Maybe there is something to this "great reset" in that to get the public to accept the new system you have to completely destroy the old one first?
Anyway, 12:30 and we all get to see the sunny uplands of RR's vision.
Tomorrow I'm booked in with my Turkish barber for one of the new state approved haircuts. |
I promised I wouldn't do any more on politics for a while, but bear with me.
Recently I was reading a piece on Maurice Saatchi which was quite an interesting interview with his thoughts on life and then on current events. Maurice and his brother of course forever linked to Maggie's election campaign and as we know they did very well for themselves after that.
Partway through the interview they got onto the US Election and he drops in that he was at the "real" Democratic convention at Evelyn de Rothschild "cottage" on Martha's Vineyard (as opposed to the circus held in Chicago for the purposes of entertaining ordinary Americans).
Just to make that point clear, I quote Maurice here "The Democrats had their convention in Chicago but, actually, the real Democratic convention took place in Lynn’s (Evelyn de Rothschild's widow) house. It was the most extraordinary gathering – everyone from presidents down, even including, most interestingly, Trump’s probation officer.".
"Presidents down" stayed with me. So plural presidents which I took to mean Clinton and Obama, were happy to make space in their schedules to go there to take care of business. It reminded me of reading "Charlie Wilson's War", which although primarily a book about the CIA in Afghanistan, explains in a roundabout way that although we think the POTUS is the top job on the planet, the people who chair the important house committees and such have far more power and aren't limited by presidential term. They also don't have to spend half the year meeting people they don't care about, unveiling stuff and cutting ribbons.
I'm sure there will be something similar here and whoever these people are then they aren't about to let a prime minister and a chancellor (both still wearing L Plates) commit economic suicide. Tony Blair tried to model himself on Clinton and Clinton's desk was famously the one with the sign on it which read "It's the economy, stupid".
Even if there isn't someone enormously powerful keeping an eye on things from the shadows, our new chancellor must surely remember what happened to Liz and Kwasi 2 years ago. I just can't believe that Starmer has signed off on, and is happy to sit there listening tomorrow, as she sets fire to the economy.
Surely we have just been played so that a mildly tight budget and borrowing a lot looks "a lot better than it could have been"? |
Yes,equities could bounce back,the weakness is partly technical,resulting from the paranoia that this Government has managed to inject into the investment climate as it flays about looking to fine tune its tax grab.However,i doubt this administration will do anything to advance the cause of UK equity ownership,a market which has been well down the international league table over the last quarter century. Labour seem to have a belief that the public sector is in someway more inherently worthy and capable of orchestrating beneficial changes than a freewheeling private sector.They might be right yet this government reminds me constantly of the allegorical book Animal Farm.Selling gilts is one thing but attracting overseas investors to UK equities might be difficult especially if Trump is pedalling unbridled capitalism in the US.Meanwhile the attraction of smaller UK equities could be significantly diminished by AIM losing the IHT concession which it needs given that markets woeful performance.However,good quality companies will always out and if the rating is blunted by being in a lacklustre UK equity market,they'll more than likely be taken over by foreign predators. |
My monitor list on ADVFN is just a sea of red at the moment (oh happy day) but surely some anecdotal evidence that this is a market-wide selloff today?
Hopefully if tomorrow's budget is anything less than an apocalypse then it will be a quick bounce back? |
You'll have worked out that I'm pretty sold on the idea SJ, but having spent my working life in something totally unrelated that doesn't really carry a lot of weight.
Your earlier points about CGT sales today (in case rates / allowances change as of tomorrow) explains a lot of red shares for me as I look at my monitor list, but even on a little pullback I think we are still back in the MSCI next week because a) most of the index will have been hit by the same pullback and b) we are still more than double the market cap which saw us ejected for being too low this time last year.
The part I'm unsure of is whether getting back into the MSI on that 6th Nov date will be enough to carry us over the FT250 threshold on the 22nd without any helping news from OXB.
As with many previous OXB conundrums, we will see... |
"If their fund rules had them cumulatively holding 800k shares which they previously had to sell, won't they now have to buy them back?"That would be my understanding.Tracker funds are simple mimicry.I'm still of a mind to think there are buyers out there looking to finesse purchases albeit that budgets and elections might cloud the issue short term.If you were a buyer who saw the price shoot away on Friday afternoon,you'd cool it for awhile. |
Perhaps Dom, but tbh I'm more interested today in reading what anybody with market experience might think of post 9007. |
Perhaps more likely the wily Indians have worked out that £50m is a worthwhile price to be able to say they CAN distribute production, but make as much as they can in India until someone complains (if they do complain). |
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