Just like Mr. President I suspect, and certainly myself. |
I really really wish I was a good day trader and had the b*lls to sell the tops hold cash and nip in on the dips...an exciting adrenaline ride compared to LTBH....just not brave enough sadly.... |
At least we have bounced off the 400 level. |
#9021 Actually a Carpenter, small black creature. What does that imply. |
Public sector Good - Private sector Bad
State Care Good - Personal Effort Bad
Just like Animal Farm (but with different adjectives) |
 It's a strange old world gutterhead.
I have relatives in Canada who are liberal people and even they struggle with what they thought they were getting vs what they got. Appreciate that one is more like a family dynasty thing, but even so.
I guess most of us here of a certain age will know people who have either retired to Spain or winter there rather than enjoy the UK weather. I have a very good friend (who is now permanently tanned) that I have regular chats with. He tells me about locals he knows who are mystified by their leaders. The economy in Spain isn't great. Overall unemployment is 11% but in young people it's 25%. Within Spain there is this mysterious body funding popular protests to kill their very important tourist industry and their PM has said that he wants Spain to give citizenship to half a million refugees because they are the "engine of the economy". None of them believe any of it but wonder where the orders are coming from.
Maybe there is something to this "great reset" in that to get the public to accept the new system you have to completely destroy the old one first?
Anyway, 12:30 and we all get to see the sunny uplands of RR's vision.
Tomorrow I'm booked in with my Turkish barber for one of the new state approved haircuts. |
I promised I wouldn't do any more on politics for a while, but bear with me.
Recently I was reading a piece on Maurice Saatchi which was quite an interesting interview with his thoughts on life and then on current events. Maurice and his brother of course forever linked to Maggie's election campaign and as we know they did very well for themselves after that.
Partway through the interview they got onto the US Election and he drops in that he was at the "real" Democratic convention at Evelyn de Rothschild "cottage" on Martha's Vineyard (as opposed to the circus held in Chicago for the purposes of entertaining ordinary Americans).
Just to make that point clear, I quote Maurice here "The Democrats had their convention in Chicago but, actually, the real Democratic convention took place in Lynn’s (Evelyn de Rothschild's widow) house. It was the most extraordinary gathering – everyone from presidents down, even including, most interestingly, Trump’s probation officer.".
"Presidents down" stayed with me. So plural presidents which I took to mean Clinton and Obama, were happy to make space in their schedules to go there to take care of business. It reminded me of reading "Charlie Wilson's War", which although primarily a book about the CIA in Afghanistan, explains in a roundabout way that although we think the POTUS is the top job on the planet, the people who chair the important house committees and such have far more power and aren't limited by presidential term. They also don't have to spend half the year meeting people they don't care about, unveiling stuff and cutting ribbons.
I'm sure there will be something similar here and whoever these people are then they aren't about to let a prime minister and a chancellor (both still wearing L Plates) commit economic suicide. Tony Blair tried to model himself on Clinton and Clinton's desk was famously the one with the sign on it which read "It's the economy, stupid".
Even if there isn't someone enormously powerful keeping an eye on things from the shadows, our new chancellor must surely remember what happened to Liz and Kwasi 2 years ago. I just can't believe that Starmer has signed off on, and is happy to sit there listening tomorrow, as she sets fire to the economy.
Surely we have just been played so that a mildly tight budget and borrowing a lot looks "a lot better than it could have been"? |
Yes,equities could bounce back,the weakness is partly technical,resulting from the paranoia that this Government has managed to inject into the investment climate as it flays about looking to fine tune its tax grab.However,i doubt this administration will do anything to advance the cause of UK equity ownership,a market which has been well down the international league table over the last quarter century. Labour seem to have a belief that the public sector is in someway more inherently worthy and capable of orchestrating beneficial changes than a freewheeling private sector.They might be right yet this government reminds me constantly of the allegorical book Animal Farm.Selling gilts is one thing but attracting overseas investors to UK equities might be difficult especially if Trump is pedalling unbridled capitalism in the US.Meanwhile the attraction of smaller UK equities could be significantly diminished by AIM losing the IHT concession which it needs given that markets woeful performance.However,good quality companies will always out and if the rating is blunted by being in a lacklustre UK equity market,they'll more than likely be taken over by foreign predators. |
My monitor list on ADVFN is just a sea of red at the moment (oh happy day) but surely some anecdotal evidence that this is a market-wide selloff today?
Hopefully if tomorrow's budget is anything less than an apocalypse then it will be a quick bounce back? |
You'll have worked out that I'm pretty sold on the idea SJ, but having spent my working life in something totally unrelated that doesn't really carry a lot of weight.
Your earlier points about CGT sales today (in case rates / allowances change as of tomorrow) explains a lot of red shares for me as I look at my monitor list, but even on a little pullback I think we are still back in the MSCI next week because a) most of the index will have been hit by the same pullback and b) we are still more than double the market cap which saw us ejected for being too low this time last year.
The part I'm unsure of is whether getting back into the MSI on that 6th Nov date will be enough to carry us over the FT250 threshold on the 22nd without any helping news from OXB.
As with many previous OXB conundrums, we will see... |
"If their fund rules had them cumulatively holding 800k shares which they previously had to sell, won't they now have to buy them back?"That would be my understanding.Tracker funds are simple mimicry.I'm still of a mind to think there are buyers out there looking to finesse purchases albeit that budgets and elections might cloud the issue short term.If you were a buyer who saw the price shoot away on Friday afternoon,you'd cool it for awhile. |
Perhaps Dom, but tbh I'm more interested today in reading what anybody with market experience might think of post 9007. |
Perhaps more likely the wily Indians have worked out that £50m is a worthwhile price to be able to say they CAN distribute production, but make as much as they can in India until someone complains (if they do complain). |
There's a high level aim to make it locally in Africa. Have to be careful what you say about that else diplomatic incidents happen, but I think that might be more the dream than the reality.
Serum have said that they will do what they can to help achieve it, but from everything I've read that would be at best a fill and finish plant where some of the vaccine made by Serum would be packaged there in a political fix to satisfy everybody.
Think about the hurdles of actually doing that:- Factory site close to infrastructure. Design and build. Validate and sign off with FDA / EMA or whichever regs it's built to in order to gain the site licence. Find 100+ employees who are qualified and have the experience in doing this. Get it right first time.
Serum plainly had something in mind when they spent £50m on OXB shares, signed an MSA option which followed a memorandum of understanding and did a similar deal with the fill and finish plant in Wales. We just don't know what it is (the thing they had in mind).
I'm normally up for a Serum chat during any dull period, but as we know the MSCI thing happens next week, I think that's probably more relevant right now. |
I think k if we say Serum = Malaria vaccine, then there is a stated aim for a geographic diversity in production. |
Not sure if we understand the Serum deal correctly They have paid for the option to use OXB facilities at any time in the next ten years This is an insurance policy for them if there is production disruption in IndiaUnless such a scenario happens why start production here at I presume at a more costly rate ? |
The recent good run is probably prompting some selling to realise capital gains pre budget.It wouldn't be a great surprise if Reeves imposed capital gains changes to take effect immediately ie from midnight Oct 30th. |
Dom,
You've been here forever so know the score as well as anyone else, but on no news from the company all we can ever hope for is two steps forward and one step back. Couple this with the fact that the clocks going back always seems to mark the start of a very slow time until Christmas and we all might as well hang the stockings up early. We've seen this over many years and I'm not going to try to fight it.
We all I'm sure (OK, most of us) hope that each new trading day morning might bring that RNS where the recent commercial deal is explained, something major is announced with Serum, or anything really - just to remind the world of the previous guidance that next year OXB will be on record revenue and not make a loss.
Budget of course is tomorrow, which would be a shockingly bad day to put out a good news RNS, so by that logic we can expect a very good one.
I'm still hopeful the MSCI rebalance will give us a nice shove in the right direction next week:-
When we were booted last year we were less than half our current market cap and so regardless of that elaborate qualifying methodology of getting back in, I would assume it a formality.
You know I've looked on the fintel website many times in the past before mentioning various things here, and of the many funds (listed there) which sold during our battering were these (with historic holding of OXB shares) :-
IEUS - iShares MSCI Europe Small-Cap ETF 6,510
SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF 305,889
IEFA - iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF 353,822
IXUS - iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF 149,398
The clue obviously in the names there, but I'm sure they weren't the only MSCI linked funds which had to sell.
My assumption here is that if those funds track specifically the relevant MSCI index for OXB, and so were obliged to hold when OXB were in the index and then sell when OXB were removed (none of them now hold OXB) then what happens after the 6th of November?
If their fund rules had them cumulatively holding 800k shares which they previously had to sell, won't they now have to buy them back? |
Disappointing. But I guess after a full week of increases some are going to take something off the table. |
Cousin,
Valid points there, but just to bat it back I've been lucky enough to see a lot of the analyst valuations over the years and at first it surprised me how little of the in-house pipeline even made it to the valuations.
I'm sure you will have seen similar but basically anything preclinical was zero valuation. Early clinical stage they allowed 5% of that estimated future value (royalties of the assumed eventual share of market size) backwards through NPV to get a pence per share valuation. Later stage clinical with earlier supporting data was 10%.
When you looked at the breakdowns it was cumulatively worth remarkably little because of course the brutal (statistics backed) reality is that most trial drugs don't get there. The big valuations for us began when Novartis passed their review meeting with Kymriah and we had never had a pence per share rating from the analysts like that before.
The point I've made a few times since Frank's RNS in March is that we are now due a second one of those with partner yet unknown in multiple myeloma which I'm pretty sure is the biggest "soft" cancer market. |
Interesting what happens before and after 14.30pm (assuming NYC is still 5 hours behind. Apologies! Already open! |
Nothing goes up in a straight line, unless the newsflow is frequent and wholeheartedly positive. Consolidation is probably not a bad thing.
We don't know if there are holders taking the opportunity to knock a few shares out as these levels haven't been around for some time. We know Liontrust have been plagued with outflows and Vulpes sold a chunk a while back (pretty sure at levels quite a bit lower than now).
I'm not totally convinced that index inclusion is that impactful. Key metric theses days seems to be the daily volume traded. Index inclusion should help boost that. Not clear to me what the OXB free float would be judged as with the IM stake and others (although I think FTSE would already opine on that for the current small cap index position).
Harry - one thing I would say about previous valuation comparisons is those included an in house pipeline, which weren't at those points considered worthless. The new management team and pure CDMO model implies no value in that pipeline (but no cashflow being spent on it, either).
Will be interesting to see what the newsflow is over the remainder of this year. |
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