 Biotech (as drug discovery) is uncannily similar to oil / mineral exploration in many ways.
Companies in both raise money to try to discover something and the majority in both sectors run out of money without the dream coming true.
People who follow the Bios (and I've followed a few) always like to try to find something which gives them an edge, but it is a very high attrition rate and most bios go bust before their Hail Mary moment.
Miracles do happen (like Summit of late) but most fall away.
Drop on a good one early enough and Sunseeker will send you their latest brochures. Pick the wrong one and you can easily walk away with nothing.
Newcomers to OXB (management) have often said that OXB stood out as a 25+ year biotech company because that just doesn't happen. What they mean is that by that time the funding rounds are long exhausted or you have discovered a drug and were quickly bought out by a pharmaceutical company.
OXB of course survived because even though their own drugs never quite made it, they began to provide services to others instead - thus becoming self funding - and that is now all we do.
In the past I've written a few times in various places that I'll never do another 100% pure drug discovery play at early stage because the risk is just too high and the timescales too long for my age now.
I'm still mostly of that mindset, and although I'm almost certain to dabble again at some point - it will only be a dabble.
So the sector is ordinarily brutal and then it was hit by covid, because to run clinical trials you either need hospital beds to use or on standby - and of course worldwide the whole hospitals were reserved for covid - so that killed even more bios than normal covid hit companies as the bios were just sat there unable to do anything other than burn raised cash. Following covid the cash was even harder to raise.
Regarding the FT250 then I think a quid over the next 4 weeks and OXB will be in. I realise that equates to quite a lot of money but the tide finally seems to have turned with OXB now and I think this trend is the result of more and more people noticing OXB (perhaps after the MF article) and taking a look at the prospects.
I'm sure there will be hedge funds out there now who have clocked that OXB could be back in the MSCI on the 6th and back in the FTSE250 on the 22nd. If they feel there is good money to be made by taking a position to help ensure that happens, then it's going to happen isn't it? |
Biotech is notoriously volatile of course and aways has been.
I’m pretty sure Harry might like to comment.I’d just make two points.Firstly,OXB’s share price has been ridiculously hit over the last three years when any rational comparison of peer group valuations are concerned and secondly,OXB has become a CDMO and as such a ‘steady eddy’ of the industry suggesting consistent cash flow and profitability. |
So around 525-550 for a possible and over 600 for more probable FTSE250 - so we need some news surely to hit the top end of this range in the next month?
500 may offer some resistance near term, but we only seem to have one large peak at 1500 in earlier times ( was not holding in those days) which makes 800 as part of that climb a resistance point if we are following a repeating pattern...wdik of course ! |
But why the considerable momentum - there has to be more to it.
Based on the following stats, would anyone in the right mind invest in UK medical sector atm without incredibly thorough research...I searched on a data source provided by AJB. The following surprised me:
Of firms in the sector on YTD performance:
20/97 beat FTSE100
55/97 made > 15% loss
34/97 made > 40% loss
What a total and utter wealth destroyer in the main this year for many I suspect.
OXB sits number 2 as the best performer league - but crikey you can strike lucky but what on earth has been going on elsewhere then.
A landing zone in a mine field possibly in 2024 :) nai etc |
Oh well,Harry's and my post crossed and his table is both a good deal more informative and up to date.The 325th spot as of the close of business yesterday is around £550m meaning OXB would have to get to 525p to be promoted. |
The FT250 table included by philh75 is a very functional list that can be adjusted online by market cap.As things stand Tritax and Henderson Europe are currently occupying the important 325th position that is necessary to gain promotion to the FT250 and they both have a market cap in the mid £570m region.OXB has 105,36m shares in issue so-as a rule of thumb-a price of around 546p would suggest OXB would currently be promoted.There's a month to go to the next review but what is striking is the recent momentum in the OXB share price and the fact that studies show that shares invariably move sharply ahead of inclusion in an index,presumably as trackers buy in anticipation.Ceres did just that ahead on the most recent review but has fallen sharply thereafter and now has a market cap below OXB. |
Sort of Phil. An easier page to read is which is updated every Friday.
Yesterday we closed at 347th place of those who qualify (you can see non-qualifying AIM stocks greyed out there) and the Friday before we were 357th place.
So knock off 100 for the FT100 and "technically" last last week we were just outside the 250 and this week just in it, but the way it actually works you have to be just above 325th place on the review date to push someone out below.
I don't want to curse it, but I think this little trend (all the traders seem to like trends) and the very good possibility that we will be back in the Morgan Stanley index in 8 working days means that 4 weeks today I will be very pleased to be calling OXB a FTSE250 stock again.
If OXB get some good news out in the next month I'd be all but certain, though I am pretty confident OXB will be readmitted after the 22nd with or without it. |
The way I read it (which may be wrong) is the last entry currently in the Ftse250 is CBG with a market cap of £551m, so oxb at £6 (£630m) has a very good chance yes. But obviously depends on other competition at the time of the review, so whether that mcap requirement has shifted upwards. |
With a MCap of £443m atm, with a seeming large number of firms with higher (in some cases much higher) mcaps, why is there belief that we have a better chance of FTSE250 entry. I know it has been repeated a number of times, but I think someone needs to show a list and who is actually ahead of us for the full context.
For example is even an share price of six quid enough for this time - I remain very unclear and would like more analysis of the data points.... |
Just been watching the cinema film about Trump's early days..quite some life he has led.
We powered through 4.40 ...this is starting to really motor again here... |
Worth keeping an eye on Milei/Argentina. It may be the start of something broader, particularly if Musk, sorry, Trump, gets in. |
We’re all singing from pretty much the same song sheet here.
The real conundrum is the quality of the candidates that are being presented to democracies worldwide.With the rigours of social media,personal safety etc,who the hell wishes to be a politician other than self-opinionated narcissists and ideologues. |
How many "workers" in the UK receive a cheque each month or if they have an emergency write out a cheque? Not many I suggest. |
I hate my phone keyboard |
March, notatch. |
Read the thread to get an idea. You'll need to go back to Match to get the full story. |
is this a good share |
FT250 inclusion now feels like a probability rather than a possibility. |
So the auction trade to end there was both 12 month highest intraday and closing price and on good volume.
I think that one is up there with seeing a star in the east wrt the MS index and then the FT250 readmissions. |
Apparently you need to be paid by cheque once a month to be a working person. |
Without going into politics, it appears Sir Starmer's very prestigious previous life is now causing problems in his current role as Prime Minister. |
“Speaking to broadcasters in Samoa, Keir Starmer said he would not use the term-‘working people’-for people who had income from assets such as shares or property. “They wouldn’t come within my definition,” he said. Downing Street hastily clarified that the prime minister did not mean people who owned small amounts of, for example, stocks or shares.”
What with supermarkets expecting one to check out your purchases (and in due course maybe stack the shelves)it seems inevitable that unworthy folk like me will be dragooned into sweeping the roads.I deserve no better.I seem to remember from my university politics course that similar sentiments were expressed by the Bolsheviks and during the period of the Third Reich. |
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