 Unknown unknowns Dom.
I would guess that Boston / Bedford has been Seb's highest priority as losing that late stage work (with Homology shutting up shop) would be so difficult to make up for - even with a lot of very early stage AAV work.
They seem to have done very well to react, with the impairment charge now addressed and that site becoming a LentiVector hub this year, but it can't have been easy.
I think we can all guess the likely reason why the Oxford and Boston business units are combined in the figures, and that's because one has been carrying the other with OXB not wanting to admit by how much, but my upside view on that would be to note that once the US site begins to contribute significantly then happy days - and that is simply a matter of time.
I'm pretty confident that France will contribute this year as they seem to be doing very well with Geovax and other work, but I think OXB have mentioned a few times now that whilst their LentiVector presence in the market is mature and very well known within the industry, their AAV services are not. I'm sure they have been working very hard to sort that out - as noted by 42% of our new work being AAV in the recent presentation. |
More effort needed to promote Boston part? Big pharma 'feel safer' buying in the good ole US of A. |
Reading my newsfeed this morning I was distracted by this:-
So Roche deepening their existing tie-up with Dyno.
What are Dyno? basically a bespoke AAV company which tailors vectors for specific applications using AI.
It made me ponder what Dyno can do for Roche with their AAV and AI which OXB couldn't do for a different partner with our AAV and our AI
I suspect the answer is not a lot, but I don't know for sure.
Obviously it's natural / logical for Roche to stay with the vector they selected in 2020 when OXB didn't have an AAV to offer, but surely potential here now for OXB to offer similar tie-ups to others?
Appreciate that we are pure CDMO these days, but the D there is of course development.
From all we have been told the Homology AAV was a very good one (hence the amount of cash we were willing to spend) and it is now improved further by OXB tech.
It's something we would never know about until it happened, but we are intimately involved with Novartis and BMS linked to our LV, so surely a similar AAV tie-up with a major is on the cards at some point. |
Back to OXB and earlier in the year we were all curious about why Frank had become chairman of ArcticZymes and if there was something brewing there.
This to me suggests that we are working together
(or at the very least using their technology) |
Yes i agree with all that Harry.It seems inevitable that Labour will repeat some,if not many,of the mistakes witnessed in the 70s.The road to economic ruin is invariably littered with apparently good socialist intentions.Thereagain,cynically,envy plays its part. |
It's very hard to compare SJ, as until quite recently the US basically had 2 conservative parties. I'm sure you know but early days Ronald Reagan was a card carrying democrat and when asked why he changed, he replied that he hadn't changed it was the democrats who had. Go back even further and the republicans are the abolitionists and hold power in what are now the democratic strongholds of the north east.
As for contesting the election then it depends on if the migrants being rushed through swing it (some states now having half a million more voters than previously registered) but I have a feeling that DT will win by such a margin that it can't be swung that way. Regardless of policies or personalities people look at what is in their pockets vs what is being spent on their behalf, and apart some very specific groups that is the biggest single issue.
Al Gore contested Bush's win
Hillary contested Trump's win
Trump contested Biden's win
That just happens. Bush Senior and John McCain both had the good grace to just accept the vote.
I share your worries about the UK. Starmer is an extreme left follower of Michel Pablo. Look at his history if you doubt that and why he followed Pablo and not the society of Labour lawyers. Corbyn would never have picked him as an underling if he didn't have extreme views and of course he is in No 10. I just worry a lot about his judgement - the fact that he thought Lammy the best in the Labour party to represent us on the world stage and of course it's very likely that our chancellor has also been picked for ideology over ability. The only thing we know for sure is that the public sector and the big unionised lobbies will be ok. Everybody else is likely to be paying for it. |
It's far from certain that the US election result will be a smooth uncontested affair and there could well be 10 days of uncertainty hanging over markets following bonfire night on 5th November.The polls are nudging in Trump's favour and discussions i've had with American tourists in various European localities over the last year have on balance pointed in that direction.Kamala Harris's policies are pretty radical.For example,she suggests reforming capital gains tax to be taxed as income,some of her policies are right out of the muted Rachel Reeves handbook.(What a farce waiting for this UK budget has become).I'm not surprised Labour party members are hanging round Democratic conventions,they could be bedfellows. |
Or one of them maybe? (we have 4 in P3).
I think that disease is fortunately tiny numbers of kids - so it will be very hard to recruit. It does seem to be a candidate platform for many other things though.
With current OXB of course, we get paid for CDMO services but are insulated from the trial costs. Good possibilities for our LV there though imho. |
Harry, good find.
I assume Castle Creek Biosciences are our "undisclosed US-based late-stage cell and gene therapy company".
Primary Completion: 2023-01-17
Results First Submitted: 2024-01-17
Results First Posted: 2024-04-01
There does not appear to be urgency to advance the product. |
Sean,
Personal anecdote here for what it's worth:-
I used to work for an American multinational company and still have friends from that time. Most Americans tell you their politics (that just seems to be a thing for them) but you have to remember that regardless of their allegiance, the Donald is a known quantity for all Americans and they know that last time he was president he did the job for 1 dollar and during his term there were no US wars (I believe the first time since Carter but haven't checked that).
The most controversial thing he did was withdraw the US from the Paris accord where Obama had signed up to cripple America with climate regulations which nations like China and India would be exempt from.
Now whether the average American believes that a very expensive climate policy can control the weather or not, they do remember their heating / fuel bills (the latter hitting everything else) under Trump vs what they became when Biden re-shackled them to crippling net zero commitments on day 1 of his presidency.
Those are huge costs as we know in the UK now with Ed's budget to change the weather on behalf of HMG. Someone has to pay and guess who that will be.
I read a book years ago (Freakonomics) and then its sequel and the story on US guns is very interesting. There are a few places - mostly limited to certain blocks in some well known cities where virtually all the gun crime takes place. In the other 99% of America then guns live in drawers and cupboards and mostly never see the light of day. I can't remember the exact passage now and I'm not going to look it up, but if you are a product of a functional family with at least one working adult (the vast majority of them are that and churchgoing) then bees and swimming pools are a far bigger risk to you than any gun. |
I am a little concerned at the potential for damage to markets if events on the other side of the pond reach their full potential for madness in a couple of weeks time. There are more guns than people remember. |
Are you employing a professional research assistant to find this stuff ? !!! |
takeiteasy,
It's fine, your guess is as good as mine or anybody else's - and unless OXB tell us (see below) a lot of what we type here is to some varying extent just a guess.
I think we will have a few happy days now at least, as the Motley Fool disciples who fancy a spot of OXB either buy in immediately or decide what they are selling a little of to fund the tickets. As per yesterday, after a long time of being the statue it's beginning to look like OXB is going to get another turn at being the pigeon.
To my mind now the FTSE250 at the review 4 weeks tomorrow is very achievable. I'll not say certain as nothing is until its done, but I think the planets are lining up and even if Rachel crashes the market on Wednesday then the threshold to get in will be lower for any company which can buck that trend.
Back to things which OXB don't tell us because they can't, and has this young man just told us what one of our secret Phase 3 trials is?
If so then I'd imagine OXB will be thrilled (and in his place I certainly wouldn't be accepting the offer of a weekend break at Castle Doliveux), but for us a little free glimpse?
So, he worked in QA/QC on the vaccine, the myeloma CAR-T and also FCX-007
That's another one on my list as of today. |
Lots of little shakes now between 4.15 and 4.35 and let's hope the sellers have been shaken out to move beyond 4.40 :) |
True Sean, but I've seen so many of these over the years and that article falls into the better half of them. As I say I'll take the publicity.
A lot of people follow Motley Fool and if that + the Morgan Stanley Index + any kind of news from OXB gets OXB to 325th place or higher by close of play 4 weeks on Friday then I will be very happy indeed with this year.
I think we closed today at 356th place. |
Quite a few misses Harry. They have one job and easy access to all the facts but still well off the mark, |
There's a few misses in that from someone who is a shareholder, but I'll take any publicity we can get in the runup to Nov 22nd. |
This skyrocketing growth stock is up 100% this year! Is it too late to buy?
Mark David Hartley
Wed 23 October 2024 at 4:33 pm BST 3 min read
Move aside Rolls-Royce and Fresnillo — this small-cap biotech share is skyrocketing past some of the UK’s leading growth stocks. Up 100% this year, OXB (LSE: OXB) is taking no prisoners as it fights to recover its losses from 2022.
Between November 2021 and October 2022, the share price crashed 78%, falling from a high of £16.78 to almost £3 per share. The price continued to fall through 2023 but has now recovered to £4.18 — the highest it’s been in over a year.
So what’s next for the stock?
Cutting-edge biotechnology
Previously known as Oxford Biomedica, OXB is a relatively small £442m stock listed on the FTSE All-Share index. The Oxford-based biopharmaceutical company focuses on cell and gene therapy, specialising in viral vector manufacturing. It has over 25 years of experience working with some of the leading pharmaceutical and biotech firms globally.
Recently it shifted to a pure-play contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO), aiming to position itself as a leader in viral vector services, helping other firms develop and commercialise gene therapies.
Over the past year, its portfolio grew to include 37 clients and 48 programmes, focusing on viral vector types like lentivirus and adeno-associated virus (AAV). The value of these contracts is approximately £94m as of 31 August.
Shaky financials
Last year was not kind to OXB, with the share price falling 50%. In the first half of 2023, it reported a 33% drop in revenues compared to the same period in 2022. The decline was primarily due to the non-recurrence of AstraZeneca Covid vaccine manufacturing. It also posted an operating EBITDA loss of £33.7m, higher than the £5.8m loss in the previous year. This was attributed to inflation combined with higher expenses related to its new Oxford Biomedica Solutions division.
Things seem to be improving in 2024, although first-half earnings were still somewhat disappointing. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst expectations, by 4.7% and 110%, respectively. Although it posted a net loss of £32.5m, this was a 32% improvement on H1 2023.
The balance sheet looks okay for now, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 55.8%. However, it’s burning through cash and piling on debt, possibly due to increased operational expenses and rising bioprocessing costs.
Cash and liquidity are key areas to watch as the company expects to break even in EBITDA by the end of 2024. In an announcement made in September during the rebranding to OXB, new CEO Dr. Frank Mathias said it aims to improve its financial standing by focusing on its role as a CDMO.
It’s unclear how well the change to a CDMO will pay off, but the price is already reacting positively. However, the loss of a large client like Novartis could easily turn things around. It already faces tough competition in the CDMO market — any drop in performance could result in lost contracts.
If things go well, the transition should provide more stable, long-term revenue as opposed to the volatile revenues from internal R&D. I expect it will continue to do well so if I weren’t already a shareholder, I’d happily buy the stock today.
The post This skyrocketing growth stock is up 100% this year! Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
Mark Hartley has positions in OXB. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AstraZeneca Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
Motley Fool UK 2024 |
I'm sure you are correct jez, with the odds on favourite for that being detail of the multiple myeloma CAR-T deal first mentioned in March. It's just this quantification of the word soon which has been problematic. |
Throw the charts in the bin,its obvious to me now, OXB are solely NEWS DRIVEN, I can feel it in my water though, news is coming soon. |
With the usual caveat here that I'm a lth and so will inevitably have confirmation bias, I don't understand why anyone would currently short OXB.
I understand why they did it last year when it became obvious to some that there were large holders who had to sell either to meet redemptions or because of their own fund holding rules for constituent minimum market cap values, then when we were booted from the Morgan Stanley index last November, but of late there seems to be nobody mad enough to do it.
See
Regardless of all the things I regularly bang on about, the simple fact remains that in 2 months we are in the holidays which end this year and about to go into 2025 where OXB have repeatedly reaffirmed guidance of c£130m in sales and breakeven or better EBITDA.
That's a £10 share which you can buy today for £4 so why would anyone short it?
I think the economy simply remains bad in the UK, with the large possibility that Labour will set fire to what is left of it a week today, which leaves a lot of people - especially smaller investors - very cautious.
Countering that, I'm optimistic that we have not dropped back below £4 after the high volume day which carried us here and we currently sit about 357 in market cap on the London exchange. We need 325 or better by the 22nd and if it happens then that would definitely help change things for the better. |
Imvho they could try when they did as the "drop" was timed right after the large option plan RNS for senior execs so you would figure a valuable RNS would be very unlikely to be within 10-15 days of this just for the poor optics it would leave...my humble 2 pennies worth... |
The apparent attempt to push us back to ~350p last week was a failure as, I assume, too many of us topped up in the 360's. Will they (whoever 'they' are) try again - and why? |
certainly won't be dull here atm now we are outside of the rangebound period - the buying could be simply linked to II presentations from the management following recent results :) |
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