There seem to be a number of threads on ADVFN where the discussion is along the lines of how much hope they have for FTSE250 promotion - not wanting to dampen spirits at all but there will be potentially some (5 or 10??) rivals for this move .... |
That did it Mr President Sir..... dropped 3p on your optimistic post ;-) |
Last review / index reshuffle of the year is end of November.
If the index is worth about the same as today then just better than 570p per share would get promotion, but I would prefer a safety factor to be sure.
Should that happen then it's all I asked for this year and I will be pleased with that.
Remember though that although Frank has issued then improved then maintained guidance this year, he hasn't really done much news - apart from that roundup RNS in March.
I suspect that if this breakout rocket happens (to propel us back to the valuation of the smaller pre-pandemic company - yes, really) then there needs to be news of some sort to light it. |
4 quid and we can get the beers out...champagne at 8 quid and FTSE250 :) lols...nai |
It was until you asked the question :¬( |
Is this finally breaking out? |
I know simplywallst is auto generated non-sense at times but they do have us at worth over £10 based on future cash flows |
Increase twice in as many days. Interesting. |
Blackrock slight increase |
Field promotion to thread morale officer 1st class is in the post jezmundo. |
Agree with you on this point . Stock very well bid and my sense is very thin on the offer . Could move sharply higher at any time now .
Tuco. |
The chart is looking very good, If we can confidently break through 390, It is a fast rise (weeks) to 650 +
But with BR acquiring, A break through to 390 is a virtual non starter. Here's hoping through. |
Regarding the ongoing theme of "guess the mystery myeloma CAR-T partner", an interesting news story out yesterday:- |
Well the lord gave and then he took away with the volume, didn't he? |
 It's all a mystery to me Gareth. I seem to remember someone explaining once that if you go short then someone has to either lend shares they own or they have to be bought and held somewhere to cover the short (I honestly don't know how it works) but perhaps there is something similar with a CFD and so someone has had to take the position (in exchange for a fee) to cover the Blackrock play?
As I admit - I plainly don't know the mechanism of how these instruments are managed.
More interested with the job ad out today
Appreciate OXB are recruiting all the time these days, but we know from past presentations that downstream is more lucrative for OXB than upstream and the line there "We are currently recruiting for multiple Scientist roles at different levels within Downstream Process Development" seemed a very positive sign to me that next year (when the invoices for all this extra work come due) is going to be good. The "greater" bit in greater than 35% growth might be a lot more than OXB dare say at the moment. |
If Blackrock crossed the 5% notification threshold on 30th September but does not account for the 620K shares traded hands yesterday. Interesting times. |
I don't think they have any interest in owning OXB Dom, they more likely (imho) see the opportunity to be holding when someone else pays a bidder's premium for OXB.
Novo already own 12% of OXB.
I'm sure that Blackrock have clocked that if Novo is to buy
IM out of their 10%
Vulpes out of their 8.5%
M&G out of their 7%
Liontrust out of their 6%
Serum out of their 3%
and Mr Shah out of his 3% (which would give them c50% without troubling the market)
Then they are going to have to offer a lot more than 381p.
If Frank can light the touch paper under some of these pending late stage deals then it's happily going to have to be a lot more than a much higher starting figure too.
With RG sitting on the board for them as a Non-Exec, I wonder if Novo count as insiders for purposes of market rules? |
If they are buying only a small volume of CFDs they must be anticipating a quick buck rather than a more serious 'bet'. |
Thanks makes sense. |
BlackRock has acquired or increased its voting rights in Oxford Biomedica, now holding over 5% of the company's voting rights as of September 30, 2024. The total voting rights comprise 3.33% from direct shares and 1.68% from financial instruments, such as contracts for difference (CFDs) and securities lending. This surpasses the 5% reporting threshold, prompting the notification. |
I can't understand the form. Blackrock and or it's subsidiaries took out a CFD yesterday and reported today with less than 5% holding before and after? |
I think these forms are designed to be unclear, but Blackrock again then? |
620,005 shares traded is a very big non-announcement day for us. |
I think we all broadly agree on some things and a summary might be that:-
When we were in the FTSE250 not only were we more visible because of that, but everybody in the world had heard of the covid vaccine - and also heard when it ended.
Now we are in smallcap which is much less visible, less institutions are allowed to buy and we are back to our core work which not a lot of people understand.
We need a trigger. Personally I was hoping that Frank would name the new CAR-T contract from March during the interims presentation but plainly he can't / couldn't. When that happens it's likely to quote a big number and is likely to be before the full year results.
As Phil notes the maintained guidance for this year is 126m-134m with better than 35% growth on that next year, which will be our record all time revenue year - easily beating our pandemic year. 1st of October today and so blob on 3 months from starting that year. I think even industry players / commentators who don't do OXB's science in detail will pick up on that one soon.
I've always gone on the theory that when OXB stick something on a presentation slide then it's there for a reason - even if that reason is something they can't talk about. Appreciate others have mentioned this too, so just a reminder, but why does half of slide 7 here detail FDA approvals in the quarter we started today?
My guess would be that one of them is the CAR-T deal from March and that whilst the senior staff know what that is and how much it is worth to us (hence none of them buying in April or September) the market won't know until the FDA approve it.
If there is anything to that one then let's hope it happens before the end of November.
Meanwhile, OXB have put their proofread version of the webcast transcript online
At the end of page 2 it says "And we are very pleased to now be supporting also
late-stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of their
products.".
If that is 4 Novartis sized contracts then that would be a huge amount of money - but of course nothing is booked in and taken as a given until it's approved. Pretty good chances at late stage though. |
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