"Wasn't our new CFO from Autolus?"
Yes, the job before last. |
Well whatever we think Mr President Sir, it hasn't excited the masses.... I think I will have to hold until 2026/7 to see any significant rise. |
 Was just doing a bit of digging on that Harry. This is with support from AI so it needs double checking. First I asked it:
Can you find me CAR-T products being reviewed for BLA submission by the FDA in Q4 this year? Which ones are recorded as using OXB's Lentivector.
Several CAR-T therapies under review for Biologics License Applications (BLAs) in Q4 2024 use Oxford Biomedica's Lentivector® platform, a leading lentiviral vector technology. Here are the therapies that are linked with this platform:
Obecabtagene Autoleucel (Obe-cel):
Developer: Autolus Therapeutics
Indication: Relapsed/Refractory B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL)
FDA Decision Expected: November 16, 2024
Obe-cel uses Oxford Biomedica’s Lentivector platform for its production
Carvykti (Ciltacabtagene Autoleucel):
Developer: Janssen and Legend Biotech
Indication: Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (expanded use)
FDA Decision Expected: Late 2024
Carvykti has also been linked to Oxford Biomedica’s Lentivector® platform for its viral vector needs
Abecma (Idecabtagene Vicleucel):
Developer: Bristol Myers Squibb and 2seventy bio
Indication: Multiple Myeloma (expanded use after two or more prior therapies)
FDA Decision Expected: Late 2024
Abecma also relies on the Lentivector® platform for vector production
(same link)
These therapies are expected to significantly advance treatment options in hematologic malignancies and are backed by Oxford Biomedica’s well-established vector manufacturing technology.
Wasn't our new CFO from Autolus? |
There were a few titbits in there Dom.
As always with OXB I wonder why they include something which wouldn't ordinarily seem particularly relevant to us unless it was.
I'm thinking particularly here of Seb devoting part of a slide in OXB's results presentation to the FDA expected to approve 2 of the type of drugs we work on in Q4.
We know from long experience that OXB are constrained in what they can say, but they have often done similar to this and given a clue.
I wouldn't tell OXB shareholders that there were two CGT drugs up for review in Q4 if I knew they were partnered with Lonza and TF. |
But nothing they hadn't told us a few weeks ago.... |
I listened to the presentation, quite robust, Stuart Paynter present, didn't say much. CEO, CBO solid performances in their French accents, CFO was a little more cautious having just joined the company, no real difficult questions from the room (James Osborne above asked a question). Peel Hunt and JPM analysts present and asked questions. No external questions put forward. Last comment capacity running at 80% in GMP suits operational at OXB decision allowing for 20% surge or maintenance capacity. A solid presentation. |
I think (in fact I'm sure) that paragraph in the results means something different than how it reads to me Phil.
The figure isn't in the tables. The option liability for the other 10% is much less. So I don't know what that means (the refinancing and the large figure) and they obviously aren't going to tell us. It may be in the FY annual report with a better explanation? |
Nice of him to thank Stuart at the end, but otherwise very uneventful.
Last two presentations had new names for clients and lots of logos - but today much more like the old style. Contracts are obviously being signed / started as per lots of references, but no mentions.
Frank, Lucy and Sophia obviously embarking on a charm offensive with the deep pocket brigade over the coming days. |
Interesting I thought that all the Q&A from Analysts were around drilling into the growth and visibility. There was not concern about the put option cost. The lower revenues in US were mentioned but not questioned further. I got the feel that the Analysts had bought into the message. But that is only a sense of feeling from a private investor! |
After the FY results he said buy up to 300p |
what was his target before - do you know |
Oxford Biomedica (OXB:LN) (OXBDF) Price Target Raised to GBP4.20 at Stifel
September 23, 2024 5:15 AM EDT
Stifel analyst James Orsborne raised (you have to pay for the rest).
"Pre-Covid the Oxford University spin-out was ticking along on the AIM market" (and now focuses on AAV). What can you say? |
1pm
A live webcast of the presentation will be available via this link |
I looked all through for $63m or something which looks like it in GBP but found nothing. I'm hoping it's just me who doesn't understand what it means rather than a mistake in an RNS which should have been checked by everybody. |
If those numbers are correct then gross cash would not be 81m at 30th June |
I thought the headline results good (but as noted by everybody else before today - in line with what they told us they would be 6 weeks ago).
PI interest this morning is almost none - but it was the same in the runup to the results, so no surprise there.
Very pleased to read in the small print that the impairment is now gone as Boston is paying its way.
I liked the 4x preparing for BLA (for those who don't know, the alternative route to licence for a "living" drug, rather than the big P3 trial route). Some good odds there as you can't submit without good data / having pre-qualified and such - but there will be some time with that as trials and reviews go at their own speed (except during covid). Potential there for 4x Kymriah added to our earnings though.
I don't understand (I know there's a lot of things in this category) how Frank can expect to keep a commercial manufacturing deal secret (note 2 commercial deals in the KPI table). We know it's CAR-T for multiple myeloma. Why they aren't saying who and what it's worth is a bit of a mystery unless that is revealed in the presentation at 1pm.
I wasn't pleased to read this:-
"On 26 June 2024, the Group acquired an additional 10% interest in OXB US from Q32 Bio (which had acquired Homology in March 2024) for $63 million, increasing its ownership from 80% to 90%, with Q32 Bio holding the remaining 10%. The carrying amount of OXB US NCI's net assets in the Group’s consolidated financial statements on the date of the increase in ownership was (£0.1 million).".
If that says what I think it says then that to me explains why our much liked Stuart is no longer with us.
I must be reading wrong as the put option isn't due until the end of Q1 next year and so why would they pay so much, so early and by choice?
Remember a little further on it says "Put option liability to acquire the remaining 10% of OXB US that the Group doesn’t already own has decreased from £9.3 million at 31 December 2023 to £2.8 million due to a decrease in the value at which the option is expected to be exercised and a reduction in the share ownership to 10%."
How can 10% in 2024 cost $63m and the remaining 10% in 2025 be forecast at £2.8m?
As I say I have to be misunderstanding that - but that's the way it reads to me. |
"The Group reiterates its existing near-term and medium-term financial guidance communicated to the market".More information will be gleaned at the analyst meeting plus an all important gauge of management confidence which remains very positive.Everything's building nicely.Unfortunately,the wide spread on the OXB quote first thing-often as wide as 5%- is an irritation in that it can blunt private client enthusiasm and remind that OXB remains in the small company category characterised by relatively low volume. |
Position not opposition - haha |
Commercial launch of any of these imminent CAR-T products will hyper launch the share price . Solid results very happy and likely to add my opposition hereCAGR will be well north of 35% post 2026 if all 4 of these drop before then |
We had optimistic reports (last year's interims?) that masses of orders coming in to the US asset. |
The funds will generally wait until after the presentations.
They buy over weeks and months. |
Is the market simply non—plussed by the results or awaiting this afternoons presentation? In house broker updates in the coming days? Director purchases assuming no closed period after results?? |
Was homology flagged up front DC - or is this a surprise factor for you/others |
Usually you see quite a bit of retail selling in the first hour or two after results but very little volume so far. |
I like this:
the growth in our late-stage programmes, now supporting late stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of CAR-T products.
But not this:
a decline in US revenues due to Homology ceasing clinical activities, revenues from Homology in H1 2024 were £0.2 million (H1 2023: £12.9 million). |
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