Harry - I also take your point that we are now a CDMO (or perhaps we should use the term 'gun for hire' as a gangster equivalent) and therefore insulated to some extent from technical advances. |
I love it, leaves my 2nd biggest holding for my largest biggest holding. Come on Stuart, bring it home son! |
There are lots of novel and exciting genetic products in the pipeline. 20 years ago some of us thought OXB thought was the blockbuster. We now realise having an exciting development candidate still has many trial and regulatory as well as commercial hurdles to cross. In short, to get to where OXB are today is a very high barrier to entry. |
 Was reading the news just now (it's raining) about Medera getting a NASDAQ listing via a merger with an existing listed company named Keen Vision.
What has this got to do with the price of fish?
Medera own Sardocor.
Regular readers will remember that at the end of March OXB put out this "guess the missing word" press release
Which included the quote "Furthermore, the Company has signed a new agreement with a US-based client specialising in cardiac gene therapy for the tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture of an adeno-associated virus-based process (AAV).".
It would have been quite difficult to guess who that was, unless you happened to spot the clue on slide 26 here
Anyway, anyone who is interested can look at the 3 links above and note that they intend to use their listing proceeds to accelerate three most advanced clinical programs for the adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapy candidates.
Personally I thought it was very interesting to see what they are up to and particularly wrt the one with 30+ million potential patients.
With the usual caveats here that before buying the party poppers it's best to wait for the trial results - AND - I'm assuming that in OXB's "secret squirrel" RNS code, technology transfer, process optimisation and manufacture means that they had issues with the original research AAV, have looked around for the best and have settled on inAAVate (see ) but it could also simply mean optimising their existing vector with OXB's I.P. and then manufacturing it for them.
Either way there is huge potential here if the trials work out. I'm not a doctor but I would guess it's a pretty quick readout to determine if you have fixed someone with heart failure or not. |
Ygor,
Short answer:- Yes.
Longer answer would risk me ending up in one of the new hurty words gulags, so I'll be as diplomatic as possible:-
If AZ wants a piece of the Chinese market then they need a Chinese partner if they want to try to avoid their execs periodically being arrested for spying, tax evasion, etc., until some concession was given. Note I used the word "try" there.
There is no I.P. protection in China (unless it suits them) and almost every technological company in the west has employed the highest calibre post-grad students who were "gathering pollen abroad to make honey at home". They usually only get caught / punished with US defence work as nobody else has the time / money for the counter security which in most other countries would only result in a slap on the wrist if it even went to trial anyway.
I'm sure you will have seen many western execs refer to the "boiling frog" analogy.
What do you do? Very difficult decision and a little bit of something from a potentially huge market is of course better than your fair share of nothing.
So their tech may or may not be better than T-Charge / whatever OXB developed. It may or may not be heavily influenced by western patents and more. Novartis (and more so BMS) seem happy to run many parallel routes to give them most chance of a success / most chance of something from every territory.
What happens if the US Biosecure act gets passed? What happens if China invades Taiwan?
I think the point to bear in mind is that OXB in France, USA and UK is geared up to make a lot of money in serving (what is likely near) 50 partners in territories where we can make a lot of money being a very specialist service provider, and without selling our soul in markets which the world's biggest companies find it difficult not to target.
Countering that of course is the news story some time ago now (found by Dom I seem to recall) of Wuxi reaching out to / visiting OXB. Who knows what happened with that? |
Harry ..... interesting article in the Times this morning about AstraZeneca's Chinese operations. In particular, it discusses the AZ's Chinese subsidiary Gracell which is working on FasTCAR which is a much speeded up version of the CAR-T manufacturing process. Do you think we're up-to-speed in this area? |
Stuart going working for a fuel cell firm it seems.
Whether that was triggered by OXB or Stuart we will probably never know, but I think he was a good CFO for OXB who presented well at the big conferences and I'm pleased he's sorted out. |
It could be the weather Dom. |
Ygor,
I'm extremely confident about OXB but less so about the general market. Probably difficult to pin that on any one single item but I'm sure that faith (in the runup to the first budget of the new regime / new chancellor) will certainly be one point at the moment.
If I look at my monitor list any morning and the majority are red then it gives me some consolation that it's probably not an OXB specific issue.
A point I bear in mind is that Frank has said a couple of times now that his guidance / forecasts are deliberately conservative. So his better than 35% CAGR is not on hopes of some kind of hail Mary event - I think one particular phrase was something to the effect of "including nothing he wasn't certain of as he preferred nice investor surprises to the other kind". That kind of thinking will do for me.
You read the posts and so know that there are lots of possible white swan events which aren't included in the forecasts. What difference would just one of those make?
If OXB stays single then if they have paid the loan down by the end of 2026 (they should have earnings significantly more than the whole loan in 2026 alone) then we are back to may favourite kind of company (one which makes loads of cash and has no debt). We have been in that happy position fleetingly before (exceptional situation) but this time it would be on ordinary operations.
Unfortunately though (my pet theory here again) I think that when OXB returns to profit next year and that CAGR forecast starts looking too tempting for Novo, they will offer a big enough multiple for our major holders to say OK and then we are a Novo company. |
What is it that causes 'market sell off' every September when those bosses return. Is it just to show the juniors that they can? |
Harry..... the bosses are back at their desks after the summer hols and the general markets now feels a bit sour to me. Our share price has dropped by 10% in the blink of an eyelid in what looks like a balanced market volume of buys and sells. Just have to hope that the results are encouraging. |
Ygor,
I think the other day when you made the point about OXB currently being a second line stock, you covered the major sticking issue for us since we were demoted from the FTSE250. Almost nobody covers in detail and a lot of covering brokers who stuck with us aren't really looking / putting regular notes out.
That Yahoo / MF list where OXB got in the top 5 contenders is nice, but the guy who wrote the OXB entry didn't seem to know too much detail on OXB - and it's one of his top picks?
We turned the half year with £81m and the house broker thinks we will never drop below £50m (remember we have a bill payment going out at the end of Q1 next year to pay for the last 20% of Homology's old manufacturing business / the 20% of the tech IP which they retained). Consensus with the other covering brokers for cash is all-over the place. I suspect that disparity is because the house broker knows (or has been given a very good hint by OXB) whilst the other covering brokers either don't know or haven't asked, but that one (the actual cash figure) doesn't really cause me any great worry as long as RBC are something close and OXB keep to their guidance for 2025.
Obviously you know what that is but EBITDA profit for the 2025 year and then EBITDA profit with a margin of better than 20% in 2026.
If what seems to be the case with recruitment is what we think it is (need because of demand), then that's going to be on much more revenue than currently guided.
Not long to the interims and some firmer guidance on the near future. |
The share price is becoming very volatile here but the story remains pretty compelling. I'm not expecting this pattern to change any time soon and I'm encouraged by the views expressed by Motley Fool. If we get a second step up in the share price after the forthcoming announcement people will start talking about joining indices etc and we may well begin to appeal to a wider range of investors. There are also a lot of vultures out there who are always looking for juicy titbits. As long as the story continues to hold, we don't run out of cash and don't announce a rights issue I can't see why the share price should not trend generally better. |
..........................................................................................................................but where is the share price going........ .................................................. ........................................ .............................. ................... |
Thanks Harry, great work joining the dots.. |
Also (slightly less Cluedo-ish)
Note the recent releases on Lassa Fever
and
Regular readers will remember that in a rare slip OXB actually talked about that one in the interims 49 weeks ago:-
(quote)
Following the success of the adenoviral vector work with AstraZeneca to manufacture the Oxford AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, the Group has continued to grow its portfolio of adenoviral vector programmes. Two new adenoviral vector agreements with Oxford University have been signed, including a Clinical Supply Agreement for the manufacture and supply of adenoviral vectors for a vaccine against the Lassa virus, and a second agreement for the supply of adenoviral vector for their programme in Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) signed post period. The Lassa virus and MERS have both been identified by the World Health Organisation as priority disease areas for research and development in emergency contexts.
(unquote) |
Thought for the day:- Probably nothing, but see this link from yesterday:-
Some of the words there to me sound very reminiscent of the covid response where big regulatory shortcuts were given to deal with an emergency. I could easily simply be seeing what I want to see in the wording, but getting back to a previous popular topic (malaria), then if the world's biggest vaccine manufacturer (Serum) is in the frame here, well...
OK, no detective work needed but if Serum end up with a contract for some / all of the 12m mpox vaccines, then how does that fit with their bigger R21 malaria obligations?
Serum is a huge company, but they can't do everything at once - which comes back once more to their MSA deal with OXB for first refusal on one of our biggest current bioreactors (1,000 litre) leading to the same deal on one of the future 2,000 litre bioreactors when they arrive - and for 10 years. Someday we are going to find out what they actually want that for and this might well hurry it along. |
Welcome to Lucinda Crabtree.... greeted by shares going down! |
(From Yahoo Finance front page)
5 FTSE stocks Fools think will lead the next bull market charge
The Motley Fool Staff
Sun, 25 Aug 2024
Oxford Biomedica
What it does: A gene and cell therapy company specialising in the development of gene-based medicines.
By Mark David Hartley.
Oxford Biomedica (LSE: OXB) is a world-class pioneer in cell and gene therapy, providing services to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. It specialises in developing therapies and treatments for chronic and deadly viruses like HIV.
Despite its ground-breaking developments, it’s not yet profitable. Its FY 2023 results revealed a loss of £1.63 per share, with a net loss of £157m and revenue down 36%. Like many young tech companies, it’s been spending a lot on R&D, resulting in losses. Whether that gamble pays off remains to be seen.
While the share price is down 22% over 12 months, it’s improved lately, rising 51% in Q2 this year.
Based on future cash flow estimates, some analysts consider it undervalued by 70% and believe the company will become profitable in 2026. With an increasing demand for biomedical advancements, I agree and think it’ll take off in the next few years.
Mark Hartley owns shares in Oxford Biomedica
I think Mark has confused one of our LentiVector patents being AIDS virus based with being a treatment for HIV and I also wonder what his definition of a young company is (OXB is 30 next year), but I will take the publicity and say thank you. Net loss figure looks wrong. |
Two great lists there Marcus, but of much more relevance to us is their CGT capacity as some of these organisations are huge in conventional medicine, like small molecule drugs, but only dabbling in CGT.
If there was a list which just listed CGT capacity / capability then OXB would definitely be well placed.
Finally, and as Seb has mentioned, if you created a list of 100% pure CGT CDMO with their own proven vectors and process improvement tech, then he thinks it would be a list with only OXB in it.
I think at the moment this is seen as both a blessing and a curse, in that we are very exposed to the fortunes of the Cell and Gene Therapy market. A sector wide downturn would hit us very badly, but should things go as forecast then our gearing / leverage or whatever the correct word there is for being fully exposed will bring very big rewards. |
8 Contract Development and Manufacturing Companies to Watch |
Top 10 Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations 2024 |
I think 3 weeks on Monday is going to be an interesting day Dom.
If I'm wrong and they simply reiterate the guidance for this year and the forecast of profit for next, then I'll still be happy, but I have a feeling that they will include a few surprises, and naming Umoja as a previously unnamed partner (as they did with CARGO at the last interims) could easily be one of those surprises.
You know I feel that none of the senior staff buying after the results in April was because they couldn't. Not long now to find out if there was anything in that hunch. |
Thanks Marcus and Mr President Sir. I was hoping for such a discussion of the issue.
I too imagined that what they described as 'the VivoVec platform' was similar to, or possibly actually was 'T-charge'.
So, we may not be clearer, but we can at least see the fog, if not what is hidden in the fog! |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
