The share price is becoming very volatile here but the story remains pretty compelling. I'm not expecting this pattern to change any time soon and I'm encouraged by the views expressed by Motley Fool. If we get a second step up in the share price after the forthcoming announcement people will start talking about joining indices etc and we may well begin to appeal to a wider range of investors. There are also a lot of vultures out there who are always looking for juicy titbits. As long as the story continues to hold, we don't run out of cash and don't announce a rights issue I can't see why the share price should not trend generally better. |
..........................................................................................................................but where is the share price going........ .................................................. ........................................ .............................. ................... |
Thanks Harry, great work joining the dots.. |
Also (slightly less Cluedo-ish)
Note the recent releases on Lassa Fever
and
Regular readers will remember that in a rare slip OXB actually talked about that one in the interims 49 weeks ago:-
(quote)
Following the success of the adenoviral vector work with AstraZeneca to manufacture the Oxford AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, the Group has continued to grow its portfolio of adenoviral vector programmes. Two new adenoviral vector agreements with Oxford University have been signed, including a Clinical Supply Agreement for the manufacture and supply of adenoviral vectors for a vaccine against the Lassa virus, and a second agreement for the supply of adenoviral vector for their programme in Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) signed post period. The Lassa virus and MERS have both been identified by the World Health Organisation as priority disease areas for research and development in emergency contexts.
(unquote) |
Thought for the day:- Probably nothing, but see this link from yesterday:-
Some of the words there to me sound very reminiscent of the covid response where big regulatory shortcuts were given to deal with an emergency. I could easily simply be seeing what I want to see in the wording, but getting back to a previous popular topic (malaria), then if the world's biggest vaccine manufacturer (Serum) is in the frame here, well...
OK, no detective work needed but if Serum end up with a contract for some / all of the 12m mpox vaccines, then how does that fit with their bigger R21 malaria obligations?
Serum is a huge company, but they can't do everything at once - which comes back once more to their MSA deal with OXB for first refusal on one of our biggest current bioreactors (1,000 litre) leading to the same deal on one of the future 2,000 litre bioreactors when they arrive - and for 10 years. Someday we are going to find out what they actually want that for and this might well hurry it along. |
Welcome to Lucinda Crabtree.... greeted by shares going down! |
 (From Yahoo Finance front page)
5 FTSE stocks Fools think will lead the next bull market charge
The Motley Fool Staff
Sun, 25 Aug 2024
Oxford Biomedica
What it does: A gene and cell therapy company specialising in the development of gene-based medicines.
By Mark David Hartley.
Oxford Biomedica (LSE: OXB) is a world-class pioneer in cell and gene therapy, providing services to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. It specialises in developing therapies and treatments for chronic and deadly viruses like HIV.
Despite its ground-breaking developments, it’s not yet profitable. Its FY 2023 results revealed a loss of £1.63 per share, with a net loss of £157m and revenue down 36%. Like many young tech companies, it’s been spending a lot on R&D, resulting in losses. Whether that gamble pays off remains to be seen.
While the share price is down 22% over 12 months, it’s improved lately, rising 51% in Q2 this year.
Based on future cash flow estimates, some analysts consider it undervalued by 70% and believe the company will become profitable in 2026. With an increasing demand for biomedical advancements, I agree and think it’ll take off in the next few years.
Mark Hartley owns shares in Oxford Biomedica
I think Mark has confused one of our LentiVector patents being AIDS virus based with being a treatment for HIV and I also wonder what his definition of a young company is (OXB is 30 next year), but I will take the publicity and say thank you. Net loss figure looks wrong. |
Two great lists there Marcus, but of much more relevance to us is their CGT capacity as some of these organisations are huge in conventional medicine, like small molecule drugs, but only dabbling in CGT.
If there was a list which just listed CGT capacity / capability then OXB would definitely be well placed.
Finally, and as Seb has mentioned, if you created a list of 100% pure CGT CDMO with their own proven vectors and process improvement tech, then he thinks it would be a list with only OXB in it.
I think at the moment this is seen as both a blessing and a curse, in that we are very exposed to the fortunes of the Cell and Gene Therapy market. A sector wide downturn would hit us very badly, but should things go as forecast then our gearing / leverage or whatever the correct word there is for being fully exposed will bring very big rewards. |
8 Contract Development and Manufacturing Companies to Watch |
Top 10 Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations 2024 |
I think 3 weeks on Monday is going to be an interesting day Dom.
If I'm wrong and they simply reiterate the guidance for this year and the forecast of profit for next, then I'll still be happy, but I have a feeling that they will include a few surprises, and naming Umoja as a previously unnamed partner (as they did with CARGO at the last interims) could easily be one of those surprises.
You know I feel that none of the senior staff buying after the results in April was because they couldn't. Not long now to find out if there was anything in that hunch. |
Thanks Marcus and Mr President Sir. I was hoping for such a discussion of the issue.
I too imagined that what they described as 'the VivoVec platform' was similar to, or possibly actually was 'T-charge'.
So, we may not be clearer, but we can at least see the fog, if not what is hidden in the fog! |
Dom,
We're once again into the big book of things which I don't know. We're also hampered here by the OXB decision some years ago, to sub out their PR work to that religious order which had taken the vow of silence.
However, there are a few things we do know, which in an approximate sequence of events would be something like this:-
1) OXB sign an exclusive deal with Novartis for CAR-T using our tech.
2) Horses are later traded to make that deal non-exclusive and allow us deals with 6+ others who wanted to use our tech. Presumably Novartis got a better deal to swing that?
3) It becomes obvious that a bottleneck with CAR-T is the manufacturing time of growing on the modified T-Cells as it takes a lot of time and space (the part of the process after us) and these time delays happen during the weeks when the patients are at their most poorly. Something better was needed.
4) The proposed solution was / is to perfect a method to "grow on" the CAR-T cells inside a warm human instead of inside a warm bioreactor. This is better in that there is much less processing time outside of the body (less delay) but there is also less CRS shock growing on the cells in the patient than there would be if you infused a very large number of them into a poorly patient in one go and they all suddenly saw 2kg of tumour cells.
5) OXB have been talking for a long time about our own better mousetrap development, and to give just one reference, note the 2021 presentation transcript here
So, as you can probably see, Kyri says "And finally, we're developing an exciting new innovation, the generation of CAR-T cells in vivo. The aim with in vivo CAR-T therapies to remove the need for all ex-vivo cell processing, by directly administering the lentiviral vector into the body. We expect to be able to treat many more patients and treat them as a first or second-line therapy, rather than third or fourth. This should give better clinical outcomes. To ensure that we adequately resource this new pipeline, we are deprioritizing OXB-203, 204 and 103."
6) The fog of war. On the BB we have traditionally assumed (and when have we ever gone wrong assuming...) that because Novartis have been developing an in-vivo CAR-T using our LentiVector (named T-Charge and now in clinical trials) that the one Kyri previously mentioned and T-Charge were likely the same thing. But we don't know.
7) This brings us back nicely to point 1) and my inconclusive conclusion.
You see I was previously of a mind that our in-vivo CAR-T must effectively be T-Charge as we have such a good relationship with Novartis who have been a brilliant customer for us and of course the FDA approval for their drug is tied to our IP.
However, I think that after doing one exclusive deal with Novartis then doing another deal to make it non-exclusive when they realised how big this market was, I think they are very unlikely to give Novartis an exclusive deal on the better mousetrap.
So, I think there are 3 takeaway point here:-
1) T-Charge may or may not be our in-vivo CAR-T tech.
2) As T-Charge still uses our LentiVector to modify the T-Cells I think it's very possible that they stayed with the same company / developers but that if it is our tech then the deal will be non-exclusive.
3) As mentioned in the previous post, 3rd generation 20 year Lentivector bought in by Umoja Biopharma? That sounds awfully like OXB and that description thins down the field of possibilities tremendously.
So what is the answer? I don't know. |
It is just good to keep an eye on the competition. Usually a good sign when the likes of Abbvie take an option. |
Have OXB publicised anything that 'sounds like' 'the VivoVec platform'? |
Dom,
I am interjecting here in my honorary capacity as the patron saint of hair splitting pedants, but...
Yes it does say Umoja Biopharma (or more fully "This work was funded by Umoja Biopharma, a clinical-stage for-profit biotechnology company".).
But although we know that Umoja Biopharma isn't one of the rough 20 names which OXB have at some point dropped (out of the 35 clients which OXB said they had as of April) we don't know that they aren't one of the other 15+.
If you look at Umoja Biopharma's website it says:-
"our VivoVec gene delivery product uses proprietary, third-generation lentiviral vector technology with a 20-year established safety record."
from
And whenever I see the words "third generation" and "20 year established safety record" I immediately think OXB because they were first and very few other people have a claim to safety data like that. They just don't have the cumulative safety years from all the people in our early eye and brain trials.
So although I agree we don't know it is OXB's proprietary tech, I also think that you can't say it isn't. |
Not OXB though Marcus is it? Why relevant. |
Some of this is down to nostalgia not being what it used to be, but I know where you are coming from. |
It’s a very,very impressive CV.
Back in the 70s and 80s,I felt that the leaders of the major parties and their cohorts were sincere in their views.it mattered not whether I agreed with those views,I believe they had integrity and sincerely believed what they purported to stand for…Wilson,Callaghan,Castle,Heath,Thatcher etc.Now I regard politicians as opportunists for the greater part.They’ll pretty much tell the electorate what they want to hear.They might not subsequently do much about it of course.Quite why anyone would want to be an MP nowadays eludes me especially given the barbarism that can be unleashed on social media. |
If you're not a socialist when you're 18,you haven't got a heart.If you're still a socialist at 30,you haven't got a brain. |
My favourite description of Labour Party policy was made with a short, sharp phrase back in the 70s and they were as correct then as they are today - TO SOAK THE RICH AND DROWN THE POOR! |
Re post 8545, I entirely concur. Middle England (Wales etc) will pay as usual. Enough politics. |
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