Summer holidays soon, so now news for a few weeks, here's hoping for a blockbuster Autumn. Some how. i very much doubt it. Although i have done relatively well out of OXB, why does it always feel like a long tedious journey to nowhere 555 |
I like that thinking Plutonian and will add it to the list as a very likely possibility.
"New gene therapy company created and funded by Oxford Science Enterprises, Harrington Discovery Institute and Old College Capital in partnership with six leading scientists from the world-renowned UK Respiratory Gene Therapy Consortium (GTC)
AlveoGene initially aims to leverage proprietary lentiviral gene therapy platform designed and developed by GTC specifically for inhaled delivery"
OXB in that GTC as you note.
"the UK Cystic Fibrosis Gene Therapy Consortium (GTC, consisting of researchers from Imperial College London and the Universities of Oxford and Edinburgh) and Oxford Biomedica (OXB)" |
Harry, as you may have guessed, I also have a list covering most of those names (and a few other possibilities).
AlveoGene is also on my list, with AVG-001 for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency.
AlveoGene licensed the CF programme to Boehringer Ingelheim, but reserved all other indications for the same technology. I assumed this included the OXB lenitvector technology, but I may be overthinking. |
Mid price above bid / ask since that opening trade. |
 I agree Dom. I think Cabaletta is a great partner for OXB and of course we had data last month (see posts 8072 / 8073). - so a lot of work but still quite early stage.
Back in April OXB told us we had 35 customers / partners and it's almost certainly more than that now.
You know already that I have many running lists based on OXB history, but it's only possible to guess at 20 names and some of those have been quiet for a long time - i.e. may no longer be current partners.
We have some fantastic named partners, but I'm always intrigued by the 15+ who want to remain anonymous. I think there will be some interesting names in there which will equate to a few nice surprises at some point, but regarding the 20 we more or less know:-
Arcellx = CAR-T multiple myeloma
AZ = Told contract left open - we don't know why / for what.
Beam Therapeutics = CAR-T (TALL/ T-LL) various leukaemia
Bioverative = Haemophilia. Company bought by Sanofi. Don't know.
BMS (Juno) = Many CAR-T / TCR-T lines - mostly secret.
Boehringer Ingelheim = Inhaled Lentivector for cystic fibrosis.
Cabaletta Bio = Autoimmune Disease (many)
CARGO Therapeutics = CAR-T various blood cancers
Coave Therapeutics = ALIGATER platform degenerative diseases (Old ABL)
GC Cell = Natural killer cells (cancer).
Geovax = Manufacture of MVA-based vaccines (Old ABL)
Immatics = Off the shelf T cell Engaging Receptors (TCER) multiple cancer
Immune Design = Therapeutic vaccines. Bought by Merck. Don’t know.
Kyverna = CAR-T autoimmune / neurology
Novartis = CAR-T / T-Charge blood cancer / autoimmune
Orchard Therapeutics = Inherited disorders in kids / launch customer for LentiStable.
RD-Biotech = Manufacturing services for their plasmid DNA (pDNA) tech (Old ABL)
Santen = Retinal diseases
Sardocor = Heart / Lung / Vascular disease
Serum = MSA signed for vaccine work / contract manufacture.
Quite a lot going on isn't there? |
It looks like with Cabaletta alone we are going to be very busy! We are certainly in the right place. |
Very interesting article in the FT today:-
Or if you don't subscribe
Worth a read. Regulars here will spot the names Novartis, BMS, Kyverna Therapeutics and Cabaletta as OXB partners.
Later on the magic words "With supply constraints limiting availability of the treatments".
Another piece of circumstantial evidence that after the horrible post-covid period OXB are now in a very good place - with the tech, the knowhow and the capacity in 3 territories. |
ST reports that Serum are starting malaria jabs in Africa They have manufactured 25 mil and have the capacity to produce 100 mil per year Anyone care to estimate what extra capacity they might need if any that might come OXB way ? |
It varies. If you are the market cap of the 325th biggest share or higher (so knock off the FTSE100 and it's like 225 or higher in the FTSE250) and you are not already in, then you bump those below out.
At the moment about £608m but last time we got into the FTSE250 it was over £700m.
£608m mkt cap and last RNS from OXB was 105,304,986 shares so £5.77 or better - but it depends on the day. |
what share price is it for ftse250 ? |
Thanks HST. 5800 shares sold and ISA'd. |
£6 by end of August would be better - you just have to squint a bit to see it. |
Chart looking good for a run to £4 level. |
If it's AJ Bell then they often use BATF on Cboe Europe Equities so you won't see it listed on ADVFN.
Type OXB into this thing
and look on one of the books (at the top).
Wouldn't 12k shares be too much money though? (20k limit). |
Technical question for those in the know. Do “Bed and ISA” trades show as “trades” or not?. I believe they are conducted at the mid price? My wife converted hers from her share fund into her ISA. Just under 12K shares transferred. Thanks in advance as no trades showing. |
I like that Mirabeau ;)
We need news from OXB and we all know it. By that I mean us on the thread know it, OXB know it and the market knows it.
I've banged on about this in the past but back when we had a handful of programmes then there were by necessity some very long waits between news. Not only that, but by nature of trial work, some of those long waits would eventually end in disappointment.
Sometime about now (and that's a vague "now") then OXB with 50+ programmes back in April, reaches a point where not only have so many of those gone through the very early stages that something positive for OXB should be very frequent, but the weight of number of programmes means that the trials which will fail will be covered by those which don't - i.e. enough work to beat the odds.
None of this is secret and all the analysts will know, but sometime soon there will be announcement (likely a big announcement) which will be the straw which breaks the camel's back, and by that I mean that sentiment will change from "former covid pandemic supplier with lots of early stage work" becomes "OXB who recently announced XYZ and already has 60 (or whatever the number is by then) other partnered programmes" - and then the tide comes back in again.
Maybe next week. |
This is teasingly on a potential breakout with the usual caveat that it may not be. No one is Nosferatu or was it Cosa Nostra or even Nostradamus? |
Highest closing price since 16th August last year on no news?
No big volume which goes against a market rumour / leak of news, but a good sign for tomorrow I think. |
An update on world's 1st CAR-T cell therapy for a child (teen) with lupus: "1 year after the treatment, I feel as good as I did before my diagnosis, except for a few colds." 15 yr old received CAR-T cells at Universitätsklinikum Erlangen in Germany in '23. |
I still think we are suffering from this kind of thing Phil:-
www.trustnet.com/news/13419377/investors-pull-900m-from-liontrust-funds-in-the-latest-quarter
Appreciate you know already, but Liontrust own 8% of OXB. It's been mentioned in previous articles over the last couple of years that they only hold so much in cash and if more investors than would normally be expected cash in their units then they have no option but to sell a small percentage of everything they hold to keep that cash float at the correct amount.
So the link there telling us that it's still going on - the only good news at the moment is that unlike this time last year, there do seem to be buyers who are keeping the price steady.
We all know what we need, which is news from OXB. OXB will know that too and I'm sure that they are trying very hard, but dates of signing deals and what OXB can say is very much in the hands of our partners rather than OXB. |
Well today, 10th July was exactly mid point in number of days between April 29th (our last update) and Sept 20th 2024 (if they use the same date this year as last). |
It's a funny old world isn't it?
3 years ago we had broker notes with £21.50 and £24 targets (admittedly on the assumption that we were going to make an AZ vaccine 24/7 for another year at least) and yet today, a company which is significantly bigger than the pre-covid company trades on a rough half of that pre-covid price.
£25 (Tuco's 50p post consolidation) was definitely on the horizon at that point.
105,304,986 shares would be £2.6bn mkt cap.
Regular CDMO (ignore that we are quite a bit more specialised and therefore more difficult to value) should trade on about 5.5x sales.
So, £479m in sales and they would justify at least that share price.
I think they are hoping to top £134m this year. Then £181m in '25 then £244m in '26 with better than 20% earnings which would be a record year for everything for us.
If OXB can keep the CAGR then 2028 and you will be there, but maybe you have seen my thoughts on this before?
If not, I think Novo are sat on more cash than they know what to do with and have stated that they intend to buy service companies in our industry. I think as soon as our earnings are such where an industry valuation + bid premium = something acceptable to our major shareholders then we are all gone and OXB becomes a Novo company.
In the interim this promised update would be nice ;) |
Thanks Harry, you could be right ;) Anyway I look forward to buying you a pint at Tuco's 50 pence party hopefully soon |
Closing volume today 123,546 which is only one small transposition error away from all the planets lining up. I think it's a sign. I'm not sure what of, but definitely a sign... |
Some of you might remember but back in April Phil found a link about OXB inheriting work via ABL for GeoVax.
Link out just now
They seem to be doing well.
Part relevant to us:-
"Vaccine Manufacturing Process Development
- Achieved an important milestone in manufacturing process development for Phase 3 and Commercial Production. This is an important step toward implementation of a validated chicken embryonic fibroblast (CEF) based production system for the companys MVA-based vaccines, with the release of the first lot of GEO-CM04S1 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) produced with a commercial manufacturing platform. This milestone marks the successful completion of the transfer and scale-up of manufacturing from the research-focused Center for Biomedicine & Genetics at City of Hope to Oxford Biomedica, the Companys cGMP (current Good Manufacturing Procedures) manufacturing partner.".
One of our undisclosed Phase 3 trials there then perhaps?
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philh75 20 Apr '24 - 16:06 - 7567 of 8262
ABL /GeoVax which is of course OXBs manufacturing now: |
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