Evening all. My first post since January I think. Quite pleased with the news but the share price is not really anything to crow about.
I am extremely concerned about AI and the inevitability of the greedy and clever using it to completely control the markets. Anyone else have a view on this? |
You have to sell down first to get the price you want to buy at. I suggest that price was about £2, then you can buy to your heart's content..... return the loaned shares and hold for an even bigger rise than a mere 50%, if you are patient.
Buying through 21 subsidiaries of course would have made it problematic to know that they didn't report the growing holding through 2, 3 ,4 an 5%.... I expect the authorities are perfectly happy with that slight slip up! |
To make money on the price increase .Opposite of shorting? |
Borrowed them to sell? |
I think they borrowed them from one of the shareholders I see CFD mentioned |
Money buys Magic..... |
When they published the annual report
Page 116 listed the major shareholders.
Another RNS today
How could Blackrock have previously held so many shares and not been in that list? |
 Morning PB,
Longest day for me today and shortest for you, let's hope that one of those is the trigger for something with OXB ;) Countering that is the reality that the AGM (on Monday) will most likely be limited to a vote on the resolutions and some reassuring words from the senior staff.
Re, Sarepta. I think there are a couple of things to bear in mind:-
On one point I agree with you that lots of past opportunities with OXB came via people who knew OXB moving between companies and when a specific need arose, well they already knew who to call. I'm sure OXB have in the past said themselves that "word of mouth" brought in a lot of work. However, these days we have a huge sales team which seems very good at selling OXB's services directly.
My other point on the news story would be to remind you that it's a pain for any company to change anything on an approved drug. If you remember we kept a cell line (process A) going just for Novartis for ages after we switched to suspension / bioreactors (process B) because their FDA approval was tied to OXB's process A.
Eventually the FDA came around and then the other regulators rubber-stamped and our manufacture for Novartis changed, but there was a lot of time (and money) involved. It's unlikely that anyone new would choose to go through that process unless their current approval was tied to something problematic. |
H ,Excellent news for Sarepta .We have a common board member with Kay Davies .Let's hope she utilises our skills!HTTps://endpts.com/fda-widens-sareptas-duchenne-gene-therapy-to-older-boys-in-significant-expansion-of-useHTTps://oxb.com/our-people/professor-dame-kay-davies/HTTps://www.sarepta.com/about-us/leadership/kay-davies-phd-dbe-fmedsci-frs |
Thanks Tuco,
By the miracle of post editing I now look slightly less daft ;) |
Harry , you are seldom wrong on anything to do with OXB , however I believe you have made an understandable error here . Both Novo and Vitruvian's percentage share of the company has reduced simply because IM added 5% in new equity .
Yes ?
They haven't actually sold any shares , merely been diluted through new issuance of equity .
Tuco. |
Interesting Dom. I think maybe not one of the "old traditions" that Historic England is keen on bringing back ;) |
Sorry Mr President Sir. I won't be able to make Stonehenge tomorrow. I am making a human sacrifice at a layby just south east of Oxford, by the BMW Mini factory. |
Unfortunately Dom, and I realise you have trod the same path, long experience tells me this has a lot more to do with OXB currently running silent than any kind of external shenanigans.
Maybe the AGM on Monday (after the resolutions) will have some kind of informal update, or maybe when they post the result of the AGM they will tag something on, but a little reminder that all is on track (as they did multiple times around the turn of the year) never hurts.
Alternatively, H1 ends a week tomorrow and maybe an opportunity there to confirm that the interims in September will be as guided.
Meanwhile, I trust you'll be joining me tonight once again at the newly orange painted Stonehenge? |
Still taking it down at the open, and no doubt again at the close. Bid up all day...... something funny there. |
CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation).
They will always be developing the vectors, we just won't be trying to develop / sell our own drugs to package inside those vectors anymore.
So with LentiVector (for example) every new partner gets offered 3rd or 4th generation to deliver their cargo, but they will be working on 5th - because if they don't then someone else will catch up.
The other tech (lots including TRiP, LentiStable, and such) is also in continuous development and not only gets offered to everyone with our vectors, but also as bolt on improvements to third party vectors. This is where Seb's team earn their money.
I don't know enough to be sure, but I'd imagine that the non AAV, AV or LV vectors that ABL were involved with prior to merger with OXB will all now have the benefit of OXB's bolt on value.
News is key and we are due some, but timescales in this industry are usually longer than you would think. |
Thanks for the reply. No I seriously was inquisitive about what development projects in which we still own licences.
I do have very high hopes fir OXB with their new CDMI strategy, and I'm still adding to my holdings in OXB and Cambridge Cognition. My linkedin feeds are awash with open positions at OXB that's a good indicator the business is robust and growing. |
I do not think 'Bedford' was asking a serious question. I think it is another avatar of the one that departed last week. His aim is to try to raise then kill interest in various aspects of OXB, innocently of course, in order to drive expectations down. |
They tried for a long time to partner it, then spin it out into a JV, then just sell it. Ravi was brought in for the last attempt as he had previous experience of doing that successfully. It never happened.
So as of the final quarter last year, we have no in-house drugs. Yes we still own them and I guess they will still technically be for sale, but if that didn't happen in the previous 4 years? Admittedly those were some really weird years with covid and then the fall-out of covid, but if there was any interest then we were never told.
31st of Jan 2022 Sio (formally Axovant) hands back our most progressed clinical drug (they were going bust). Stuart did say following that, something to the effect that OXB had been in touch with 2 people who had been interested in ProSavin before Sio/Axovant licenced it, but with the time elapsed then I would consider that gone too.
What are they worth? That's an interesting question because the patent life is ticking on them all and some are still pre-clinical. ProSavin would be worth most as they have good patient data / safety data, but remember the patent life is ticking down so not as much as when it was licensed the first time.
My honest advice would be to consider them gone and if something does ever get sold on then it's a very pleasant surprise.
The bigger issue for us as shareholders is the savings of not progressing those drugs vs the paid work for partners (less outgoings vs more incomings).
Remember, Frank's £30m per year savings is like earning that every year against the possibility of doing a deal. Nothing sold for 4 years would equal the upfront payment on a huge deal. |
I'm not sure if this has been covered in other threads but I could not locate them. If we were to sell our legacy in house drug development portfolio (and I'm not completely up to speed what's in the OXB portfolio).
Does anyone have a best guess what these could be worth if sold at this stage? Or would they be more likely spun out into a new AIM listed company? Would this have a meaningful impact on our finances to fund growth or just neligable housekeeping. |
I'm not sure if this has been covered in other threads but I could not locate them. If we were to sell our legacy in house drug development portfolio (and I'm not completely up to speed what's in the OXB portfolio).
Does anyone have a best guess what these could be worth if sold at this stage? Or would they be spun out into a new AIM listed company? Would this have a meaningful impact on our finances to fund growth? |
There are a couple of possible homes for the money which we do know about boadicea, but how realistic I don't know.
There does seem to be a route to exercise the option on the last 20% of Homology early if it changes ownership. As Homology is now a part of Q32 Bio then maybe another 20m Euros makes that possible without taking our cash balance too low for future contingencies. Alternatively they wait until March next year when the other side will definitely trigger it.
Then of course there is the loan. 50m USD which is shown as £38.5m in the '23 annual report. £6.3m in interest last year? That loan is a 4 year loan from October '22. If the charges / penalties for paying it off early are cheaper than the remaining interest is likely to be, then does this 20m Euros make going debt free attractive to OXB?
Maybe the AGM on Monday will have an announcement to go with the resolutions? |
Was today's news a bit of deck-clearing before the big event? |
Makes sense to me. |
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