gh,
Something I've written before (probably too many times) but it can't be done unless the major holders (many who are in at much higher levels - like Serum with 3% at just under £15 per share) say yes.
To my mind there is only one buyer. They are the richest listed company in Europe and they already hold 12% of OXB, recently stating that they intend to use their weight loss drug windfall to buy speciality service companies to the pharma industry.
IM are undoubtedly a very wealthy private company, but we are talking different leagues to Novo.
So my prediction remains that Novo will sit on their enormous cash pile until OXB get their share price back to a level where a normal sales buyout multiple would placate all the other major holders. At that point OXB becomes a NN company and I suspect everybody will be happy. |
If ever there was an optimal time to take us out, it would be around now.
Cash positive, derisked and growing
It would have to a significant premium to today’s price and that’s the potential blocker as the predator wouldn’t want to be seen as overpaying.
Interesting times |
I regard the news as positive.IM could well have been given the impression by OXB that it was best to take stock sooner rather than later.OXBs share price has been pretty dull over the last month in line with the US Nasdaq biotech index. |
I suppose it's a possibility Dom, but on my ADVFN monitor page there is quite a portion which seems to mimic OXB's daily ups and downs. I don't think we will ever know for sure.
We do know (for sure) that we are about to start commercial production with another CAR-T (in addition to Novartis - maybe J&J) which significantly strengthens our revenue going forwards over the life of that drug (usually many years).
So we know for sure that OXB have slotted this in before a multiple myeloma deal which we know is soon to start. The rest is a bit of a mystery - but quite a pleasant one to ponder. |
However, the price action over the recent weeks (sold down on open, then again in the close) suggests that someone has been carefully managing the share price |
 This isn't the news which would have the insiders embargoed as it was all public.
OXB didn't need the money as they turned the year with cash of £103.7 million, told us that there was very little capex planned and that we would be broadly breakeven on operations this year. QED no immediate need for cash.
The timing of this was down to OXB not IM.
OXB would still get the same amount of money from IM whether they issued more or less shares than today in September as it's a contractual clause which IM were tied into for a fixed amount of cash in exchange for a variable amount of new shares.
My take on this (caution the glass half full here) is that the timing when OXB don't need the cash is a thankyou to IM with an eye to what is comming.
IM sold us ABL for an unbelievably low multiple of sales and then also put in 10m Euro in cash to fund the transition of ABL to exactly what OXB needed.
If OXB have now looked at what might happen in the next quarter and decided it's right to let ABL have the shares at the average today, then I'm fine with that and see it as fair given what they did for us.
Those of us who have been here for a while might remember when we ended up borrowing from a very sharp outfit who on top of onerous loan terms also wanted their share of the company for free (wasn't it 4%?) as a signing on tribute. After the loan term ended they then sold those free shares down against us as a thank you. This RNS today is a much fairer and more acceptable arrangement. |
I stand corrected! |
Actually the price was 30-day VWAP, not 6m....
"share price of 325p per ordinary share, being the 30-day VWAP to closing on 17 June 2024."
This could shift materially over a period of a few weeks particularly if a major event were announced in that time. One can only speculate on whether the timing of this event might have a connection with the imminence or otherwise of any such event. |
If I was IM I would buy in asap for cheapest price - why would I wait and overpay? |
The market doesn't like uncertainty, and in picky markets even relatively minor uncertainty could be used as a stick to beat the share price with...
As the price for IM was the 6m VWAP price, the volume over the recent results would still be a chunky weighting. If the share price moved higher in the coming months it would need volume as well to pull the calculated price materially higher. |
Being kind to us as shareholders as this in effect acted as a major hand brake on the share price going up in my view....let's see if this is right or not with how share price moves now |
So at OXB discretion till September?Which way do you want to play itOXB thinks that it is unlikely there will be much better share price in that period so go now. OrOXB thinks the share price will be much higher and wants a good deal for IM ? |
The share price now that has been agreed was absolutely not known by us - was it? |
"As previously communicated this investment follows Oxford Biomedica's acquisition of ABL Europe SAS, ....."
On that basis it was a known factor and would not appear to necessitate an embargo on insider trading - but wdik. |
I think the timing was any time up to end September (maybe wrong), so I simply think they have been pragmatic to choose now...removes important uncertainty around OXB... |
It is, but the issuing of shares was at OXB's discretion, I believe?
With the shares bouncing around just over 300 the the VWAP was unlikely to exceed 325 until more news arrived. I guess it also heads off questions of timing etc at the AGM. Plus the E20m of cash arrives, which does earn interest these days |
Surely this is but confirmation of the execution of what was agreed months ago ? |
Personal thought really - but the timing is very cute as the election falls before the results and (use words carefully) hedge funds might consider to try a bear raid to drive share price down on a temporary basis until end July, it the election does cause temporary instability to UK small caps.
This may only be a small risk but very unwelcome given the great progress, so the wording of the RNS, timing taken together I suspect manage this risk - let's see what the market thinks... |
To answer a lot of debate about lack of BOD share purchases, this transaction would have held everyone up from buying as it would have been clear to them all what this agreed price was looking like and not to us as we have all been unaware i.e. they were all insiders to this.
Happy to take other views... |
Here's the RNS for our BB friendsOxford Biomedica PLC - Subscription of shares by Institut Mérieux #OXB @OxfordBioMedic HTTps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/01e1bb7e-500c-4d85-bd44-c39ecc40eaa6 #voxmarkets |
Nice RNS, now we know why we have been in a holding pattern for 25 days :) |
I sit here as a LTBH smiling at all this technical charting stuff, but I like to try to learn new things so follow their assessments from time to time...lols..seems to me a very long winded way of saying the stock is trying to find a new bottom to bounce back from? wdik of course on these matters :)
BULLISH PIERCING LINE
Definition
This is a bottom reversal pattern with two candlesticks. A black candlestick appears on the first day while a downtrend is in progress. The second day opens at a new low, with a gap down and closes more than halfway into the prior black body, leading to the formation of a strong white candlestick.
Trader’s Behavior
The market moves in a downtrend. The first black body reinforces this view. The next day the market opens lower via a gap, showing that the bearishness still persists. After this very bearish open, bulls decide to take the lead. The market surges toward the close, prices start to go up resulting in a close way above the previous day’s close. Now the bears are losing their confidence and are reevaluating their short positions. The potential buyers start thinking that new lows may not hold and perhaps it is time to take long positions.
nai etc |
No pressure then Gareth ;)
I would say that history tells us there is something afoot. It's extremely unusual for none of them to buy. Even in horrid years there's usually someone who has bought a few - even if it was only filling the spouse's ISA.
Last year nobody bought at the full year results.
At the interims we found out that they had been talking to IM about ABL and in the open period post interim results the following bought
Dr. Roch Doliveux
Dr. Frank Mathias
Stuart Paynter
Leone Patterson
Catherine Moukheibir
Stuart Henderson
Sebastien Ribault
Nick Page
Matthew Treagus
James Miskin
Namrata Patel
Spouse of Mr. Hayden
We know they are there or nearly there with a new commercial manufacturing contract which is already signed (see RNS) so it won't be that.
I have lots of guesses (which you have probably seen) but it could also be something completely different. Maybe they have finally found a buyer for one (or all) of our old in-house drugs. Who knows. But they are up to something. |
You know where I stand Dom (or in this case sit) but I think on low volume (63k today as I type) it's pretty difficult to type any kind of sweeping statement with any confidence.
OXB seem to be meeting (possibly bettering) what they promised 7 weeks ago and we are a fortnight from them closing the books on H1.
If there has been no news before, then I would really hope that at the AGM they will give some reassuring words that H1 will be as previously guided (or better) and perhaps an update of that table.
We all know (or we should know) that our commercial production for Novartis has been a multi-year banker for us which essentially saved our company. It used to be a large part of our income, but now the company is bigger it's a smaller but still very significant fraction (maybe 10 or 15% of revenue) and we are about to get at least one more of those. The future looks brighter every time they update us.
I wouldn't be a seller at this level but similarly I'm not going to say that someone taking a profit now is wrong. |
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