DD
I don't believe he means what you believe he means. I suspect he's suggesting he's simply trading a price move irrespective of the company. Traders do that. They'll trade a chart pattern whether it's gold, oil, wheat, stocks, currencies etc. |
I have recently been studying freestyle charting of the Shaolin Temple school, and the Loch Ness monster / begging Scottie dog / giant W formation tells me that we are due big news soon.
Possibly tomorrow. |
This guy's a chart trader so uninterested in company fundamentals (ie not an investor).
with chart display |
Marketmakers trying to tempt people out of their shares? |
Short term breakout here. Itching to go |
Cytotherapy Journal (anyone subscribe secretly?)
Volume 26, Issue 6, Supplement, June 2024, Page S208
Seems a very nice summary |
 Best of luck Phil and top marks for trying.
After I wrote that last post I was thinking that if they had some kind of planned schedule of updates then they would almost certainly have told us already. As they haven't, it suggests to me that it's more something which they will just roll out every time they update the corporate presentation (e.g. the JPM conference) or attach it as part of any significant RNS.
You know my logic with this already, but I'm pretty convinced that something of significance to us is on the boil.
It started with none of the insiders buying after the results - what embargoed that?
Then we have all the job ads, not least the purchasing job with a £100m spend.
We know from the AGM agenda that they plan no more big purchases with dilutions.
I've mentioned Malaria a lot, but I have a feeling that because of infrastructure and logistical needs in Africa it will be ages before demand outstrips what Serum can easily supply, so I have my doubts it is that.
If the recent RNS (new undisclosed US CAR-T partner for multiple myeloma) is J&J with Carvykti (and as Plutonian pointed out at the time, nothing else fits that description well) then pretty soon we are going to making a lot of vector either directly for J&J or for their strategic partner Legend Biotech. That would be very nice, but is it a gamechanger?
So either that or something else which is an unknown unknown. |
I’m going to write to IR and ask. |
This is not a complaint as it's only 5 weeks since we had an excellent presentation and update - but... it would have been really helpful if Roch had indicated where and how often they plan to publish this "CDMO industry standard" KPI table, rather than just showing us what it looks like in his chairman's message.
The problem we have here, which is not a new one for OXB, is that the longer they run without some kind of update the more it leads people of a sceptical mind to assume that there is no light under the bushel (when everything we find actually points to the contrary).
Around the turn of the year we had that little run of updates from OXB which came out nearly monthly. That was great for us, but I have a feeling that the best we will be able to hope for longer term is some kind of quarterly reporting. |
Nothing about the plans and performance is responsible for this drop in share price I can only assume that the market makers are posting sales to force the price down in an effort to create cascading sales by PI's. |
Finish at the opening price? |
Sentiment in all equity markets oscillates between the morose to the ebullient dictating the valuation that is applied to any stock at any given time regardless of the fundamentals.Currently,the UK equity market is morose and i don't trust the market to apply an accurate rating to a whole multitude of stocks,illiquid,smaller stocks in particular.The markets perception of OXB has gone from the short-lived 'ebullience' attached to being a high profile beneficiary of covid to the 'morose' perception of an unloved orphan in the post covid era.I don't think the market has remotely addressed itself to the metamorphosis that OXB is undertaking to becoming a highly profitable,cash flow generative,pure CDMO.The real question is whether the market will wake its ideas up before OXB receives a takeover approach. |
push it back down to 3.15, flush out a (very) few holders and push back up again to 1.35 - rinse and repeat...part of life so smile and accept it for now :) |
Allogenic is still not as good. |
takeiteasy,
I've written many versions of this in the past to anybody who has sold, but the right decision for you is the right decision for you and that's the end of it.
Whether it's also great timing is a completely different thing and is only obvious with hindsight. The people here who took profit in late 2021 made absolutely the correct decision.
But 2021 was £143m in revenue and £23m in earnings.
OXB have told us £126m to £134m in revenue this year and better than +35% next year.
So 2025 should be at a minimum £170m to £181m in revenue?
By 2026 they are guiding better than 20% EBITDA?
There should be a second chance with figures significantly better than the peak covid year, unless a much bigger company owns OXB by then. |
Need some decent sales growth then to pay for these extra variable costs and maintain our margins :)
I have stopped trying to buy any more here in the SIPP and have in fact trimmed a few in the ISA to diversify as I was quite overweight. It is tempting to keep adding but safer for me to wait for more validation from the company amidst all this fervour of hope, excitement and speculation ... |
I thought someone else might have posted this, but
So the latest need is for a production manager as deputy to the head of manufacturing.
Another role which we didn't need until now.
So recently we have a need for a procurement director with a bigger purchasing department spend than our total turnover last year and now the head of manufacturing needs a deputy.
If only badger was still here to explain how this is an obvious indication of doom. |
Sounds absolutely right to me with institutions with a clear interest sitting on the sidelines awaiting news and next direction. And for those of us retail investors still accumulating its very slow going to find sellers generally and especially for a block of 10,000 shares or more. At these range bound prices there just isn't going to be enough shares available for a serious institution to build a position even of half a million never mind a million shares plus. |
Very little larger investor/small cap type fund interest atm from what I see of the trading....as I said a while back this may all wait on H1 results in the months ahead leaving the running to the retail crowd for now - hence, this may take more time to push out beyond 3.50 for a complete breakout imvho |
Why do you think that chillpill? |
Looking like the consolidation phase might be ending! |
It seems that the market has reached a balanced concensus of value based on current known facts and is not inclined to acknowledge much in the way of positive expectations leading to the currently range-bound share price
The result is that we have built a strong technical base for further advance when the company can merely confirm that its own expectations have been met. If perchance those expectations can be exceeded or major news emerges, then the response could be quite dynamic! |
For those who have any sort of interest in discussing technical charting matters...check out this very nice chart image which shows we are now above 100 day, 50 day and 20 day MAs.
The interesting kicker is to track the line of the 20 day MA as if you cast your eye back in time this has proved a strong support to bounce off when we were in "up" mode (e.g. circa 18/4).
So this past week we pushed the share price down and it hit the 20 day MA and bounced back up off it.
Make of all this what you will...
dyor and nai of course...
hxxps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OXFORD-BIOMEDICA-PLC-43524070/graphics/ |
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