This is what accumulation looks like, designed to shake you out of your position.This chart structure was inevitable (see my earlier post), there may be a stop triggering drop before the next leg up to low 400s all imo dyor ofc. |
few buyers and sellers early on - as more arrive to trade spreads can narrow typically |
It seems now that most days at the beginning of trading there is a very large spread, up to 20p. During the day this then narrows and it ends up at the close of only about 1p. Does anyone know why ? |
I suppose what I am really saying is that it will be iteresting to watch today what technical traders do who religously follow this stuff - I am typically a LTBH so only spectate on this for background interest... |
 Does anyone follow technical charting here - well if not, please ignore. But if this is of interest we have the somewhat unusual 3 white soldier bullish pattern
hxxps://cdn.howtotradeblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/30232235/where-the-pattern-appears-2-1068x670.jpg
hxxps://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp
Because three white soldiers is a bullish visual pattern, it is used as a potential entry or exit point for a trade. Traders who are short on the security look to exit and traders who are waiting to take a bullish position see the three white soldiers as an entry opportunity. When trading the three white soldiers pattern, it's important to note that the strong moves higher could create temporary overbought conditions. The relative strength index (RSI), for example, may have moved above 70.0 levels. In some cases, there is a short period of consolidation following the three white soldiers pattern, but the short- and intermediate-term bias remains bullish. The significant move higher could also reach key resistance levels where the stock could experience a period of consolidation before continuing to move higher.
Limitations of Using Three White Soldiers
Three white soldiers can also appear during periods of consolidation, which is an easy way to get trapped in a continuation of the existing trend rather than a reversal. One of the key things to watch is the volume supporting the formation of three white soldiers. Any pattern on low volume is suspect because it is the market action of the few rather than the many.
dyor/nai etc |
I thought you might Dominic... |
I second that Mr President Sir. |
DD
I don't believe he means what you believe he means. I suspect he's suggesting he's simply trading a price move irrespective of the company. Traders do that. They'll trade a chart pattern whether it's gold, oil, wheat, stocks, currencies etc. |
I have recently been studying freestyle charting of the Shaolin Temple school, and the Loch Ness monster / begging Scottie dog / giant W formation tells me that we are due big news soon.
Possibly tomorrow. |
This guy's a chart trader so uninterested in company fundamentals (ie not an investor).
with chart display |
Marketmakers trying to tempt people out of their shares? |
Short term breakout here. Itching to go |
Cytotherapy Journal (anyone subscribe secretly?)
Volume 26, Issue 6, Supplement, June 2024, Page S208
Seems a very nice summary |
Best of luck Phil and top marks for trying.
After I wrote that last post I was thinking that if they had some kind of planned schedule of updates then they would almost certainly have told us already. As they haven't, it suggests to me that it's more something which they will just roll out every time they update the corporate presentation (e.g. the JPM conference) or attach it as part of any significant RNS.
You know my logic with this already, but I'm pretty convinced that something of significance to us is on the boil.
It started with none of the insiders buying after the results - what embargoed that?
Then we have all the job ads, not least the purchasing job with a £100m spend.
We know from the AGM agenda that they plan no more big purchases with dilutions.
I've mentioned Malaria a lot, but I have a feeling that because of infrastructure and logistical needs in Africa it will be ages before demand outstrips what Serum can easily supply, so I have my doubts it is that.
If the recent RNS (new undisclosed US CAR-T partner for multiple myeloma) is J&J with Carvykti (and as Plutonian pointed out at the time, nothing else fits that description well) then pretty soon we are going to making a lot of vector either directly for J&J or for their strategic partner Legend Biotech. That would be very nice, but is it a gamechanger?
So either that or something else which is an unknown unknown. |
I’m going to write to IR and ask. |
This is not a complaint as it's only 5 weeks since we had an excellent presentation and update - but... it would have been really helpful if Roch had indicated where and how often they plan to publish this "CDMO industry standard" KPI table, rather than just showing us what it looks like in his chairman's message.
The problem we have here, which is not a new one for OXB, is that the longer they run without some kind of update the more it leads people of a sceptical mind to assume that there is no light under the bushel (when everything we find actually points to the contrary).
Around the turn of the year we had that little run of updates from OXB which came out nearly monthly. That was great for us, but I have a feeling that the best we will be able to hope for longer term is some kind of quarterly reporting. |
Nothing about the plans and performance is responsible for this drop in share price I can only assume that the market makers are posting sales to force the price down in an effort to create cascading sales by PI's. |
Finish at the opening price? |
Sentiment in all equity markets oscillates between the morose to the ebullient dictating the valuation that is applied to any stock at any given time regardless of the fundamentals.Currently,the UK equity market is morose and i don't trust the market to apply an accurate rating to a whole multitude of stocks,illiquid,smaller stocks in particular.The markets perception of OXB has gone from the short-lived 'ebullience' attached to being a high profile beneficiary of covid to the 'morose' perception of an unloved orphan in the post covid era.I don't think the market has remotely addressed itself to the metamorphosis that OXB is undertaking to becoming a highly profitable,cash flow generative,pure CDMO.The real question is whether the market will wake its ideas up before OXB receives a takeover approach. |
push it back down to 3.15, flush out a (very) few holders and push back up again to 1.35 - rinse and repeat...part of life so smile and accept it for now :) |
Allogenic is still not as good. |
takeiteasy,
I've written many versions of this in the past to anybody who has sold, but the right decision for you is the right decision for you and that's the end of it.
Whether it's also great timing is a completely different thing and is only obvious with hindsight. The people here who took profit in late 2021 made absolutely the correct decision.
But 2021 was £143m in revenue and £23m in earnings.
OXB have told us £126m to £134m in revenue this year and better than +35% next year.
So 2025 should be at a minimum £170m to £181m in revenue?
By 2026 they are guiding better than 20% EBITDA?
There should be a second chance with figures significantly better than the peak covid year, unless a much bigger company owns OXB by then. |
Need some decent sales growth then to pay for these extra variable costs and maintain our margins :)
I have stopped trying to buy any more here in the SIPP and have in fact trimmed a few in the ISA to diversify as I was quite overweight. It is tempting to keep adding but safer for me to wait for more validation from the company amidst all this fervour of hope, excitement and speculation ... |
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