This is not a complaint as it's only 5 weeks since we had an excellent presentation and update - but... it would have been really helpful if Roch had indicated where and how often they plan to publish this "CDMO industry standard" KPI table, rather than just showing us what it looks like in his chairman's message.
The problem we have here, which is not a new one for OXB, is that the longer they run without some kind of update the more it leads people of a sceptical mind to assume that there is no light under the bushel (when everything we find actually points to the contrary).
Around the turn of the year we had that little run of updates from OXB which came out nearly monthly. That was great for us, but I have a feeling that the best we will be able to hope for longer term is some kind of quarterly reporting. |
Nothing about the plans and performance is responsible for this drop in share price I can only assume that the market makers are posting sales to force the price down in an effort to create cascading sales by PI's. |
Finish at the opening price? |
Sentiment in all equity markets oscillates between the morose to the ebullient dictating the valuation that is applied to any stock at any given time regardless of the fundamentals.Currently,the UK equity market is morose and i don't trust the market to apply an accurate rating to a whole multitude of stocks,illiquid,smaller stocks in particular.The markets perception of OXB has gone from the short-lived 'ebullience' attached to being a high profile beneficiary of covid to the 'morose' perception of an unloved orphan in the post covid era.I don't think the market has remotely addressed itself to the metamorphosis that OXB is undertaking to becoming a highly profitable,cash flow generative,pure CDMO.The real question is whether the market will wake its ideas up before OXB receives a takeover approach. |
push it back down to 3.15, flush out a (very) few holders and push back up again to 1.35 - rinse and repeat...part of life so smile and accept it for now :) |
Allogenic is still not as good. |
takeiteasy,
I've written many versions of this in the past to anybody who has sold, but the right decision for you is the right decision for you and that's the end of it.
Whether it's also great timing is a completely different thing and is only obvious with hindsight. The people here who took profit in late 2021 made absolutely the correct decision.
But 2021 was £143m in revenue and £23m in earnings.
OXB have told us £126m to £134m in revenue this year and better than +35% next year.
So 2025 should be at a minimum £170m to £181m in revenue?
By 2026 they are guiding better than 20% EBITDA?
There should be a second chance with figures significantly better than the peak covid year, unless a much bigger company owns OXB by then. |
Need some decent sales growth then to pay for these extra variable costs and maintain our margins :)
I have stopped trying to buy any more here in the SIPP and have in fact trimmed a few in the ISA to diversify as I was quite overweight. It is tempting to keep adding but safer for me to wait for more validation from the company amidst all this fervour of hope, excitement and speculation ... |
I thought someone else might have posted this, but
So the latest need is for a production manager as deputy to the head of manufacturing.
Another role which we didn't need until now.
So recently we have a need for a procurement director with a bigger purchasing department spend than our total turnover last year and now the head of manufacturing needs a deputy.
If only badger was still here to explain how this is an obvious indication of doom. |
Sounds absolutely right to me with institutions with a clear interest sitting on the sidelines awaiting news and next direction. And for those of us retail investors still accumulating its very slow going to find sellers generally and especially for a block of 10,000 shares or more. At these range bound prices there just isn't going to be enough shares available for a serious institution to build a position even of half a million never mind a million shares plus. |
Very little larger investor/small cap type fund interest atm from what I see of the trading....as I said a while back this may all wait on H1 results in the months ahead leaving the running to the retail crowd for now - hence, this may take more time to push out beyond 3.50 for a complete breakout imvho |
Why do you think that chillpill? |
Looking like the consolidation phase might be ending! |
It seems that the market has reached a balanced concensus of value based on current known facts and is not inclined to acknowledge much in the way of positive expectations leading to the currently range-bound share price
The result is that we have built a strong technical base for further advance when the company can merely confirm that its own expectations have been met. If perchance those expectations can be exceeded or major news emerges, then the response could be quite dynamic! |
For those who have any sort of interest in discussing technical charting matters...check out this very nice chart image which shows we are now above 100 day, 50 day and 20 day MAs.
The interesting kicker is to track the line of the 20 day MA as if you cast your eye back in time this has proved a strong support to bounce off when we were in "up" mode (e.g. circa 18/4).
So this past week we pushed the share price down and it hit the 20 day MA and bounced back up off it.
Make of all this what you will...
dyor and nai of course...
hxxps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OXFORD-BIOMEDICA-PLC-43524070/graphics/ |
Whatever, a nice run up into the official close.
Now for the auction? |
If correct, kind of defeats the point of an 'order-driven' market with restricted trading hours doesn't it? |
Can anyone explain how the key movements in the share price, almost every day, are after hours (significant down following rise during the day - or the opposite) and before open (sometimes a big rise followed immediately by a large drop) or drop from the previous close. |
Excellent post. |
Masterly Mr President Sir |
 ygor,
There are some exceptional events in there, but that's sort of it.
When the Kingsman's founded this company it was pure drug discovery.
When John Dawson ran it then it became a hybrid drug discovery / CDMO services company - the main reason it has lasted 25+ years without getting a drug approved.
By the time Roch is running the company (interim CEO) then we have been trying to sell off / spin out the drug discovery side for some time and there are no buyers.
Frank comes in as pure CDMO (his background) and the drug discovery side of the business is gone now.
I think that's the main part which people (maybe mainly people who don't follow OXB well), haven't really grasped yet. They still think we are a big spend / cash burn drug discovery company which had a one-off windfall with the covid vaccine.
Reality is that our spend on drug discovery ended by Q4 last year and we now only spend money on developing drugs if a customer is paying for it.
Our costs seem to be somewhere in the £130m per year range and once sales exceed that (forecast to better this year by +35% next year) then happy days. How long before that is accepted by the market? Don't know.
The takeover thing is just a guess by me based on Novo saying recently that they intend to spend some of their weight loss drug windfall on services companies to the pharmaceutical industry. Well they already own 12% of this one.
Countering that we have a lot of long term shareholders (and shortly one very big new shareholder in IM) who won't want to see OXB bought on the cheap. Happily Novo have enough money to be very nice to them (and by default us too). I'm not joking either with that. We refer to 1bn in sales as a blockbuster drug because they are so rare. Wegovy brought in sales of about $4.5 billion last year and their market isn't fully mature yet.
They will soon have mountains of cash (isn't there some stat now about them already affecting the Danish economy with their income?). So, to my mind if anyone buys OXB it's going to be Novo. Conversely, if someone else wanted to buy OXB then how on earth are they going to tempt Novo out of their 12%? Hardly like more money is going to do it.
If you are thinking of some scenario here where it works for everyone then perhaps they wait until next year when OXB will make a profit, then offer a multiple on sales which isn't unheard of in this industry and 51% of us will say it's enough and that's the end of OXB as an independent company.
Might happen and might not. |
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