Closing above £2 today is surely a sign that after Easter OXB shall rise again. |
Scancell just appointed WG partners as Joint broker .Same as OXB.Nice coincidence HTTps://wgpartners.co.uk/transactions/ |
A little under 40k shares traded as I type (which is very low by recent norms).
Does this mean our latest seller has finished or just gone away for Easter? |
Appreciate your points there Dom (jesting and not), but I would imagine the implementation on the ground is the biggest single hurdle.
Some of these countries are enormous, with little in the way of infrastructure outside of the big cities. Just getting the vaccine there must be a logistical nightmare, then you need the medics to do it, set up a temporary centre, then try to get everybody in the surrounding area to make their way in if they have kids in the age range. Then repeat.
The money is much easier to sort out. The WHO, UNICEF, GAVI and such all rely on aid money from the wealthier countries. I'm sure strings can be attached. I'm equally sure some of the Gates fortune has gone into GAVI and in particular the attempt to irradiate malaria.
In time they will sort it out (an army of medics on the ground and a plan to distribute all the boosters) and at that point they will need much more product on a regular basis. |
No hurry? Maybe it is because there are negotiations behind the scenes to include an American company. Difficult to include one as they are pricing the vaccine too low to be attractive to, oh, say, Pfizer.
(All in my imagination). |
 The comments there on that page Phil (which I'm sure you have read) cover all the relevant points.
During covid they overreacted very badly for a disease where anyone with an even slightly enquiring mind could work out that it was never as dangerous as they said. One example being the quarantined cruise ships which were perfect experiments, but there were many examples where the claimed rates and statistics simply couldn't have been true.
Real doctors (especially epidemiologists) were either ignored or subjected to character assassination and now we have a whitewash which will find that everybody who seized power like it was their destiny really just did their best.
Malaria is the biggest killer of all time, it disproportionately affects young kids, but we don't have it in western countries and so the response now a vaccine is here will be nothing like it was for covid where the average UK victim was 83 and already had 4 or more existing comorbidities.
I understand Professor Hill's frustration but he is dealing with politicians who will be just as useless with this as they are with everything else. |
Phil,
I'd bet a whole pound that there is a contract.
Remember things which OXB have told us:-
(quote)
In 2022, Oxford Biomedica signed a 10-year MSDA with Serum Life Sciences Ltd (Serum), a subsidiary of Serum Institute of India, for the manufacture of a variety
of vaccine and protein-based therapeutic products.
Oxford Biomedica has signed a 10-year MSDA with Serum Life
Sciences Ltd (Serum, a subsidiary of Serum Institute of India), for the
manufacture of a variety of vaccine and protein-based therapeutic
products. This agreement follows on from the Memorandum of
Understanding agreed with Serum in 2021. The MSDA allows for
Serum to access the Group’s Oxbox facility to manufacture a variety
of vaccines at scales of up to 1,000L.
Serum is also able to secure exclusive access to one of the two
new large scale multi 2,000L facilities in the second phase of Oxbox
facility expansion for a period of 10 years from facility readiness.
Serum will be required to commit to a minimum order value over
the relevant period in order to secure exclusive access to the new
large-scale suite.
The second phase of Oxbox development is expected to provide
additional flexible manufacturing capacity for a variety of viral
vector-based products, including cell and gene therapy products,
vaccines, and other advanced therapeutics up to 2,000L scale.
Design work for this next phase of Oxbox development is
progressing, with the proceeds from the £50 million investment
from Serum funding the development.
(unquote)
Then when Vulpes asked the question directly in the webcast Q&A, the answer was:-
(quote)
Kyri Mitrophanous
Well, I mean, we certainly saw the malaria vaccine being approved, which is great news for people suffering from that horrendous disease in those areas. We have got an MSDA signed with serum, but we're not disclosing any further details about that at the moment.
(unquote)
Note the word "signed" there.
My expectation here, based upon a combination of reading the news and wild guesswork, is that Serum can supply enough at the moment to meet the needs of the people / infrastructure available to deliver this at travelling village clinic level in Africa.
Once there are an army of medics recruited, trained and available to give the 4 doses (some sources say 5 - as in primary then 4 boosters) to youngsters, then the program gets expanded to older kids, then adults.
Somewhere on that path Serum won't be able to meet demand and the WHO rules stipulate that it's not all to be made in one territory for security of supply anyway.
We would need quite a bit of notice to start, and I'm sure that's in the MSDA, but my assumption is that there will be a number of doses which Serum want to keep and any ordered in excess of that would come to us. But let me again stress the words assumption and guess here. |
They are all very early stage Marcus.
My take for the immediate future would simply be that BI and the consortium picked our vector (before it was 4th generation and had an even bigger payload capacity) and the amount of time invested by them so far means that they will stick with us now.
When the trials begin in summer, then unlike the eye and brain gene therapy which is tiny amounts by injection, CF is large amounts inhaled in a mist and so they will need a lot of it. If successful in the first trials (which is usually a quick readout with gene therapy) then they will need a much bigger quantity - which is a lot of work for us.
If approved (a number of years down the road for that) then OXB will need the second half of OxBox for commercial production demands. |
Interesting re CF H. |
Come on Serum, let’s get a contract sorted and let us help to irradicate this:
Investigators immunised over 4800 young children in a trial in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Mali and Tanzania and found on average 78% efficacy in the 5–17-month age group over the first year
To date 25 million doses manufactured and ready for roll-out by The Serum Institute of India (SII) in the next three to four months
hTTtps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(23)00816-2/fulltext
Interpretation
Introduction of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine could have a substantial public health benefit across sub-Saharan Africa. |
Someone a while ago asked about our Cystic Fibrosis research partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim which seemed very quiet.
Interesting link today
Relevant part :-
"After tackling challenges ranging from finding a suitable vector (“It’s much harder to get genes into the lungs than originally anticipated”) to scaling up, the team partnered with Boehringer Ingelheim and Oxford Biomedica in 2018, and is set to begin human trials this summer."
So some good news at long last from that - not just for us, but hopefully a chance of a fix for those with CF too. |
Now's the time. The above suggests the short is cleared. |
Great thread to read. Waiting for the right moment to buy
appreciated |
439,325 shares traded today which is about double our usual volume of late. |
Ten days ago,there was the 2.1million share sale.Trade data on the day and immediately thereafter suggested that around a million of that sale was placed by the broker but there was a further million shares odd that was 'unaccounted' for.I would suggest that those shares are slowly but surely being sold by the broker and when exhausted the shares will rise.The broker paid just over 189p for the stock so feeding them out at current levels the broker is making a reasonable turn.Pure guesswork but the price reaction over the last week fits such a supposition. |
Depends when they bought Dom as I'm sure we both remember sub 2p shares.
But, if they are managing a fund then it's other people's money and just a number. |
The right news is far more important imho.
By that I mean that UK newspaper finance pages, Investor's Chronicle and more share websites than you can shake a stick at, aren't suddenly going to start writing that OXB is a screaming buy because a big seller has stopped selling.
Either a compelling presentation at the results, or some big news with a well known company name or disease name to grab the attention and we might have arrived at rehabilitation junction. |
Whoever they are, they must be desperate for cash. They must be selling at an apalling loss? |
someone took over 100k shares and no move to share price - so you are spot on atm |
We won't move until the seller is finished. |
I appreciate the many past arguments made here about smallcap shares being all but invisible to most big pro-investors, then of course there's the "will they / won't they" of their recent forecasts when to many people OXB is simply a covid stock post covid.
Anyone with a bit of sense knows that they can't be a 25 year old covid vaccine stock, but unfortunately once you get a public label for anything in life then it's tough to shake it off (which is where, ironically, some malaria vaccine work would really help - as even though it's not CGT, it attaches OXB's name to something big where everybody has heard of the name and it isn't covid). Time will tell with that one.
As for £2, well, yes - it's a tiny step in the right direction, but when you consider that a smaller OXB without record sales or ABL, and with a much more cautious outlook was steady between £4 & £5 last year - right up until the beginning of August, then £2 for a significantly better outlook less than a year later? |
If we can get above 200p we might get some momentum investor interest..until then stuck in the mud. dyor etc |
With the usual health warning here that I'm a long term shareholder and therefore inevitably biased, I would congratulate you on what seems to me to be excellent timing.
Currently this appears to me to be the end of a perfect storm of what has battered OXB's share price very badly (AZ covid vaccine ending early / shortfall of other work delayed by pandemic / post covid economy / interest rates / loss of a big customer in Homology).
The upside of course is that the new work is now back in quantity, a lot of our legacy / existing work has progressed to the more lucrative later stages / we now offer all vectors in 3 regions - and - it seems like those "permanently high" interest rates are on their way back down again, which reverses the stocks to bonds argument.
I'm not sure what it is which will tip the balance and send us back the other way, but our current rating is irrational.
Might be the results presentation 5 weeks today.
Might be partner news regarding a bigger name than us which catches the attention.
Might be a new venture. |
Yes, it is that management revenue projection, along with the current excess of demand over supply capacity in the market, that has brought me in. This is as I understand it an experienced and reputable new management team, that is going to set expectations that they have reasonable confidence in beating. Delivery of close to 2026 revenues of £250m - for which OXB already has the internal capacity- would merit a very significant re-rating, especially if profitabilty returns before the remaining cash buffer is exhausted. Not everyone of course shares this view, but that is why we are investors. Some we get right, some we get wrong; if we cannot have conviction around our judgements we might as well just buy passive ETF's . (My other conviction investment is BUR.) |
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