Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 15/11/2017 11:44

Down 43p from this time last week!

[che7win] 15/11/2017 11:31

Yes, P/E 7 against 20% growth, crazy market.

[villarich] 15/11/2017 11:09

I'm baffled by recent price action in a few of my holdings. OSB, along with BOO and FEVR have all given updates where they've upgraded expectations and the SP's in all three have fallen.

[mazarin] 14/11/2017 09:53

Perhaps as well, in the light of today’s VM fall, I decided on OSB last week, but pity I didn’t wait just a couple of days before doing so. Hey ho, it’s only money.

[che7win] 14/11/2017 09:02

OSB looks to have bottomed, PAG and LLOY are also showing strength and PFG strong recovery.

VM. I don't like much, principally because of it's credit card business and vulnerability to bad debts there, so I stay clear of it - I didn't like the figs on the credit card side last results.

Adam, on bad loans, I was told by the company that they very carefully manage risks - they know intimately the customer and everything about them - they know immediately if they are in difficulty in any debts elsewhere.

Their LTV is average 75% I think - the market would have to fall 25% before problems.

As Golding said in August, a down turn helps professional BTL as rents tend to rise if houses stagnate or fall.

[cc2014] 14/11/2017 08:43

I've closed (at a small loss). Not sure why as I really believe in the trade, but I really don't like the look of VM. and PFG this morning.

I've had a bad run on a couple of other trades too so this is more about regrouping I guess.

VM. is particularly surprising and I didn't expect to see it back here again.

[adamb1978] 13/11/2017 23:04

Can someone help me understand the level of losses / bad debts which OSB would have to incur in a downturn for them to blow through their min regulatory capital levels and therefore require an equity raising? I have a reasonable holding today and, given the valuation if very low, was thinking of loading up further but this is one thing which I don't understand.
Thanks
Adam

[cc2014] 13/11/2017 09:13

I am astonished at the price this morning. I have loaded up my wheelbarrow now. Fingers crossed.

Good to see someone has taken out the volume at 390 on the offer. I assume it was pushed sub 390 to take out the stops.

Fingers crossed anyway

Edit: All the banks a bit weak this morning but for the moment they all seem to have found some support

[che7win] 13/11/2017 09:12

The first trades were at 401p and the MMs just kept marking it down in the face of buys until they eventually got a few sellers.

With an ahead statement from the company, what would we have been like with an inline statement?

Beggers belief.

[its the oxman] 13/11/2017 09:05

How far does this deserve to fall on the back of its recent trading statement? Now sub 390p.

[cfro] 10/11/2017 17:44

Fwiw i own both VM. and OSB although i own more OSB after a top-up today. I think they are both vulnerable to outside bids if they stay at these cheap levels for too long.

[mazarin] 10/11/2017 17:29

I had a choice yesterday afternoon of either buying into VM or OSB and decided on the latter. I had also considered buying OSB following last Tuesday's fall ahead of results, but then decided against it, sensing it might move lower, but as we all know it didn't and I failed to benefit from Wednesday's positive upgrade resulting in 5%+ gain. Today it seemed, the drop I had rightly anticipated a couple of days earlier actually materialised. It's all down to timing, plus a bit of luck and I spectacularly got it wrong on the both counts, for the 'short term' at least. I'm expecting OSB to be the preferred beneficiary when ALD eventually gets bought out, hence my decision to buy ahead of that event. Time will tell.

[cc2014] 10/11/2017 16:38

hmm. Well VM. just went up and up and OSB went nowhere.

I look forward to collecting my profit on this next week. rofl.

[cc2014] 10/11/2017 14:17

There's the answer I think. A 26k trade at 394.25.
I assume it's a delayed sell and now we can get on with going up

[che7win] 10/11/2017 12:59

Yes, I noticed, VM. Up 11.5p, 4%.All the financials bouncing here, PFG also positive now.

[cc2014] 10/11/2017 12:58

It's difficult to assess right now as the price feeds are down but from what I can see of the trades and volumes going through on VM. the buying continues steadily and the volume is higher than it's been of late.

The volume isn't high enough to suggest another takeover but someone wants in and don't want to be patient.

I can't understand why OSB isn't following VM. and PAG, it's not like it's even gone back to 400 and is dithering.

vv strange.

[che7win] 10/11/2017 12:38

Yes, both the above rising, now up 7p.We have an anomaly here, two trading updates this week 3rd quarter trading accelerated from previous 6 months and current trading strong.This isn't a drop on the business performance or outlook, drop on small volumes, market was rational when it pushed these up to 420p Wednesday.Someone surely will bolt OSB onto their operations at some stage.

[cc2014] 10/11/2017 12:20

Strange isn't it. I've taken some more. Hopefully it will wake up later in the day.

I am rather hoping "they" are collecting stock down here before they push it up later.

Low volumes though

[che7win] 10/11/2017 12:17

VM. Up 5, PAG up 5, we should be at 405p.

[cfro] 10/11/2017 10:45

Me too, these are simply too cheap at this price.

[che7win] 10/11/2017 10:33

I'll have some more.

[mazarin] 09/11/2017 17:19

Almost all FTSE big hitters ended in the Red today and the US Cavalry didn't help.

One Analyst commenting on US stocks, said: 'Wall Street has been caught up in the global sell-off in equities, and seeing as US indices have been enjoying a very bullish run recently, investors decided to take some cash off the table.
'The same old concerns about delays to the US tax proposal are doing the rounds, and that was already wearing on investor sentiment, so the Japanese decline made dealers extra jittery.'

[uhound] 09/11/2017 16:54

Probably falling on news of housing market downturn?