Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 24/6/2017 10:04

This is rather crazy though, don't you think, major growth coming, could the 15% growth accelerate into the autumn?In March OSB confidently predicted they would grow 15% this year.Then, 3rd May, they upgraded their forecast to more than 15%.Based on a modest 50p EPS and 15% growth, we have a 750p price target. Being a bank, it won't reach that lever, but surely we should be at P/E 10 or 500p.Love the last article I posted, big growth coming in the autumn me thinks :-)The great thing is, most investors have little knowledge why OSB keeps growing, despite BTL slowdown, they are ignorant to the details.

[uhound] 24/6/2017 09:34

Depends who you listen/speak to?

hxxps://www.cml.org.uk/news/press-releases/gross-lending-up-12-in-may-and-new-cml-buy-to-let-forecast/

[che7win] 24/6/2017 09:29

I'm looking forward to the new rules kicking in 1st October with glee, how about this for a headline:
"Specialist BTL lenders warned they will inherit 'massive' volumes of work"

"I think the real challenge for 1st October is probably for some of the bigger, more vanilla lenders, who are used to almost automating the whole of their process, as this moves completely away from that,” said Adrian Moloney, sales director at OneSavings Bank.

“…I don’t think it will be as difficult for the specialist lenders to adapt to these changes, as perhaps it will be for some of the bigger players in the market.”

"So the remaining lenders, many of whom are here today … challenger banks and specialist lenders, are going to inherit massive volumes of work.

“Not 25% more, but 125% more, 250% more…”

“…It is a big change for the landscape, and I’m not quite sure we have dialled it in correctly as an industry.”

[uhound] 22/6/2017 11:10

OSB & ALD 200ema broken.

Interesting to see if there is a bounce from here.

[che7win] 21/6/2017 15:55

Yes,
Well spotted FF.

I'm bullish, £1 fall in a month, PEG this year is 0.19!

[future financier] 21/6/2017 15:15

Just noticed that OSB topped up its Tier i Capital with a new issue of £60m CoCo's at 9.125% last month. Seems a little on the expensive side (Barclays issued at 7.875% and RBS at 8.625% in August last year) - but it will enable them to continue to issue mortgages without having to call on shareholders. So definitely positive.

[che7win] 21/6/2017 08:01

SHAW takeover successful at a P/E 10, whose next?http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/07/upstart-challenger-banks-eye-consolidation/

[uhound] 20/6/2017 15:33

che7win, yes that's right.

Since then the share price has gone from around £3.23 up to around £4.78 and now currently £3.82. Know one can predict share prices not even brokers! but I think it will continue down from here over time. (just my opinion)

I have made and lost money here trading the stock since the start of the year and I'm happy with my return.

I'm sure as a bull here you too have done well in the last 9 months or so.

Don't see the point of starting a thread on "Shorting OSB" - can't see the harm in offering an alternative opinion.

But I'll stop if it upsets you.

Good luck to both bull and bears.

[che7win] 20/6/2017 15:03

Uhound,
Weren't you saying the same thing 5 months ago? Since then, OSB have upgraded their forecasts to 15% growth this year.

UHOUND - 27 Jan 2017 - 10:12:21 - 572 of 751 OSB-a hidden gem - OSB
Agreed it does all look fine on the face of it, but based on what I'm being told by contacts in the BTL industry (Brokers, estate/letting agents, solicitors, financiers) activity for BTL purchases by individuals has nose dived since November.

Ltd company purchases has increased mainly because some landlords have decided to incorporate as a way to "get round" the new tax changes. However, this is only a small proportion in the overall market.

PAG and OSB are not the most favoured lenders of the professional landlord despite the fact that's their target market.

In the south east more previously let property is coming on to the market for sale as landlords both amature and professional "get out". Some professionals will re-invest in the midlands and the north where it's still a viable investment.

I don't see a big crash in the south east property market because cash buyers will still buy in certain areas - but they don't need mortgages.

OSB South east dominant lender.

At the end of the day it's the share price we are watching and that's driven by sentiment and often not anything else!

I guess we will see.

[uhound] 20/6/2017 13:58

Will always be seen as a property related stock despite its other lending activities, so as basem1 say's sentiment dictates.

The housing market is in decline particularly in the south east which as readers here will know... I think is going to affect the numbers here down the line.

From a TA view - 20% down from peak only a month or so ago! Approaching 200 EMA.

[basem1] 20/6/2017 10:56

Sentiment dictates. One for the brave looking 12 months out......

[che7win] 20/6/2017 09:23

Ald up 3% from yesterday morning and we down, we should be at 415p going by markets

[che7win] 16/6/2017 21:51

U said the same thing last winter, we are up £1 since then and £1 below fair price IMHO.

Investec thinks likewise:

"OneSavings’ share price pull-back – down 9.2% since 23 May – has coincided with a share placing and fresh crop of headlines anticipating the demise of the buy-to-let market (or claims that the demise is already well underway). We suggest that this all rather misses the wood from the trees – OneSavings’ own experience points to record originations in H1 2017, improving margins and (of course) the not-so-thorny “problem”; of an expanding “capital surplus” to deploy or return. We have no option but to upgrade back to BUY.

 We observed a recent headline on the BBC website on 17 May, “Buy-to-let slump after stamp duty change”. There is some data to “validate̶1; this (as shown in Figure 1, page 2, aggregate volumes of buy-to-let advances for new purchases have declined since April 2016), but this data is not of any genuine relevance to OneSavings’ ambitions in the buy-to-let market. Overall, it has a c.5% share of flow, c.2/3rds of which represents remortgages....."

The rest of the report reads rather well detailing the reasons, but I'm not going to share further, suffice to say I'm bullish.

[uhound] 16/6/2017 17:41

Obviously we see things differently which is what makes a market.

I'm bearish on what I'm seeing and hearing from professionals within the industry and my own understanding of business and economics, etc.

Currently forecast look good for OSB based on current business etc - I believe things will change here soon.

I maybe wrong of course - just an opinion.

Good luck to all long and short.

[future financier] 16/6/2017 15:17

Just to give some FACTS in relation to the "insights" offered by UHOUND. With the exception of the peak pre crash year of 2007, 2015 and 2016 saw record numbers of BTL mortgages. The Council of Mortgage Lenders has just issued a press release in which they have forecast the total number of BTL mortgages issued in 2017 will be down c. 6% on 2016 and probably a further 3 - 4% down next year. So yes there is a "market" slow-down but I leave it to you to decide whether this is a "marked" slow-down.

However as che7win has already pointed out OSB operates in the more specialist space including limited company BTL - which is still growing. And the reason why the "big boys" don't move into this space is that neither their systems nor their staff can handle specialist (incl. limited co.) BTL.

[che7win] 16/6/2017 12:42

I'm quite happy having spoken to the company this week, nothing has changed, they know the business well.
If anything, their growth would have been better than 15% had they had the capacity to deal with the demand for their products.

You have seen BTL slow down for the past 12 months, if you don't understand why this isn't affecting OSB, you need to dive deeper into the business.

All the recent broker notes I've read are bullish on prospects. In fact, the last Investec broker update 30th May makes it clear why BTL slowdown doesn't change prospects for OSB and we've all been here before..

[che7win] 16/6/2017 12:31

More likely Future Trading statement (as per
)

"The last few months has seen extraordinarily demand beyond our expectations with a significant increase in new lending. We have been making important changes to our services in order to meet the requirements of our broker partners in order to meet this demand.

The changes we've made include:

Doubling the size of our broker liaison team to support the high level of demand

Simplifying some of our internal processes to speed things up

Significantly increasing staff numbers in our underwriting team

These changes have helped us to improve our service.
We are pleased to announce that our 15% growth expectations have been upgraded once again to a range 15-20% over the current financial year.

[uhound] 16/6/2017 10:31

Possible Future Trading statement

"We have seen a marked slowdown beyond our expectations with a significant reduction of new lending. This is market wide and not just company specific. The effects of stamp duty rises, additional taxation, new letting licensing, rent caps, housing policy changes, Brexit (of course),etc is having a negative effect on the housing market in general. We therefore now lower our earnings estimates........" etc,etc.

Maybe the big boys don't want such a big share at this time?

[che7win] 16/6/2017 09:57

49p EPS consensus this year (P/E around 8) as against 15% growth:

Trading statement 3rd May:
"We remain confident of achieving at least mid-teens net loan book growth in 2017".

The challenger banks are eating away market share from the big boys.

[che7win] 16/6/2017 09:39

Shore Capital reiterates buy rating on Onesavings this morning.

[uhound] 16/6/2017 08:25

Hello Che7win - as you know I follow the stock and I'm bearish as I think earnings will decline which will hit the stock price.

I seldom post, but read all the comments and occasionally can't help but comment when I hear a strong positive take on things. (naturally)

Obviously it's just my opinion and I'm nobody.

Good luck to all longs and shorts.

[che7win] 16/6/2017 07:56

Ahh, Uhound,
I was wondering when you would turn up.
You said the same last year, if you understand OSB, you will know they have had unprecedented demand this year, even though BTL has been falling for a year.

Thats why they were confident enough last month to upgrade their forecast for above 15% growth this year and having spoken to them this week, that remains the case.

Bargain price below a P/E 8 - they really should be over 500p IMHO.

[uhound] 16/6/2017 07:50

Don't be fooled! Propaganda! Remember when BOE said the next rise would be soon, then they lowered rates!

There can't be rate increases while there's so much debt out there.

Heading for recession IMO.

Housing market in trouble - BTL suffering badly - it will come through in the numbers eventually.

You can chooses to believe what you are told or what you can see to be happening.

[che7win] 15/6/2017 12:55

FF, 3 members of the BOE rate setting committee voted to hike today.