Osb Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 15/6/2017 12:42

I don't see a rate hike for at least 18 months!

[che7win] 15/6/2017 12:34

BOE getting close to a rate hike which will increase margins here

[che7win] 14/6/2017 09:53

Thanks FF, I agree with your view, PAG continues its share buy backs which might be to boost bonuses?Not sure about PAG entering car finance market just as PCP finance is coming under scrutiny.OSB dwarfs my ALD holding, I have small amounts in PCF and LLOY also.

[future financier] 14/6/2017 09:40

I agree that Paragon is extremely well placed in the new environment - but it is already more fully priced than OSB. It has a very strong track record of managing its portfolio through the last downturn and so warrants a premium - but I think its upside is more restricted than OSB.

For the record I hold both shares - but roughly twice as much in OSB as in PAG.

[che7win] 14/6/2017 09:04

Paragon I view as a close competitor to OSB, they said this in results 23rd May:"There has been excellent progress in the Group's various lending activities with clear evidence emerging of the structural shift in the UK banking markets towards specialist lenders, whose strength and capabilities are built on a greater understanding of the markets and customers they serve, delivering more tailored products and supported by superior technology. The Group's buy-to-let pipeline has more than doubled across the period and points to lending volumes for the full year exceeding our original expectations. Further, we are well positioned to exploit the opportunities that will emerge from the additional PRA underwriting rules due later this year. Whilst the buy-to-let market, overall, is forecast to be subdued, we are confident of growing our market share. "

[che7win] 14/6/2017 08:55

Investec recently said in their end of May broker note:"Moreover, against a backdrop of increasingly competitive asset pricing in much of the UK mortgage market, OneSavings has actually been selectively increasing its pricing, (at least in the short term), in order to contain flows."

[che7win] 14/6/2017 08:14

Thanks Mr Market, What an opportunity in the past week.Now to get back to a sensible level from here.

[che7win] 13/6/2017 11:39

FF,
interesting, I'll bear that in mind...ALD is relatively small exposure for me.

[future financier] 13/6/2017 11:33

I've gone off ALD as they have lost their crucial middle management layer - basically they wanted out when the deputy CEO who had created the bank (Mark Stevens) was eased out a while back. Having said that they have recently lost their head of mortgages (or something similar), Charles Haresnape - and that would have been a bonus!

[che7win] 13/6/2017 11:07

FF,
lol, and yet ALD won't drop, OSB is the volatile cousin. I think OSB is treated as a proxy BTL business, but its at the specialised end of a market which it only has less than 5% of.

Good in that it provides an opportunity to buy at these prices from a personal point of view.

ALD you've previously said is very lean, they seem to be a lot more stable as a listed company share price wise, also on a low P/E of 7, but OSB seem to more established IMHO and pay a nice growing dividend.

[future financier] 13/6/2017 10:56

........... and compared with ALD, OSB is by far the better company!

[che7win] 13/6/2017 10:26

it may be basem,
its from here that it bounced off after the first JC Flowers sale and went up 80p to ~475p.

Current P/E for this year is forecast as 7.9 and falling next year!

I don't think it should be here, the last JC Flowers sale caused an initial drop which really I think provided the opportunity to buy - this second drop since then is undeserved as it had already fallen hard.

Comparing it to the other banks (e.g. ALD which I have also bought on the dip), the fall here is far greater IMHO.

[basem1] 13/6/2017 10:17

The 3 year chart probably says this is the bottom ?

[basem1] 13/6/2017 10:15

Fair comments, good luck. I'd like to try and catch the bottom.

[che7win] 13/6/2017 10:09

basem,
things are lining up well for OSB:

48P EPS forecast (or more depending on which broker note you read) this year, next year 53.8p.

Business is booming - for specialist lenders with OSB and manual vetting, they have so much business recently that they've been selectively RAISING rates to temper the demand.

Inflation figures out this morning at 2.9% - will put pressure on interest rates to be raised - increasing margins for OSB.

OSB is probably trending above the 15% increase forecast in last month trading update (itself an upgrade),

Finally, surplus capital that OSB is accumulating might well be returned via dividends.

I think this current price is a steal so I've been adding.

[basem1] 13/6/2017 09:47

The market looks forward, maybe things cannot get any better than they are now ??

[che7win] 12/6/2017 17:07

Future financer,
You made a good post there, this is down to the election and sentiment. You work in the industry or know more than me I'm sure.

However, I've spoken to the company today and although nothing market sensitive can be discussed, nothing has changed since the trading update as far as I can see and hear (read last months trading update to be reminded how strong business is).

DYOR

[future financier] 12/6/2017 16:59

che7win - see my post 703

[che7win] 12/6/2017 16:35

Interesting times, especially when they are expanding so fast:

[its the oxman] 12/6/2017 16:14

Time to get out was when the stock was 20% higher, probably a bit late now.

[rcb99] 12/6/2017 15:23

Yet despite these positive comments the price keeps falling... Down nearly 20pc in the last couple of weeks since JC Flowers offloaded their stake. Suggests the market knows something we don't, time to get out I think.

[mj19] 12/6/2017 11:32

Broke support right

[che7win] 12/6/2017 10:56

Onesavings Bank
OSB
Jefferies International Buy target 512.00p Reiterates

[che7win] 09/6/2017 13:29

Lloyds and Aldermore recovering steadily, OSB as usual lagging.