Orcadian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the_basil_of_yentup] 03/11/2005 22:21

Like a whale coming up for air, Orca is gracefully easing out of its nose-dive. With the water's surface (aka IPO price) quite a way above, Orca has substantial upside, quickly.

[tone] 27/10/2005 14:54

Oh YAWN is that fresh coffee I can smell;

[keithjamesmc] 27/10/2005 14:48

2 recent IPTV commitments:

->BT goes with Microsoft
->BSkyB almost certain to go with NDS, but I understand there is something to do with Orca on the NDS system or is this a tiny bit???

[tony727] 27/10/2005 12:51

Ex Employee dumped 102,000 shares,perhaps they know something?

[the_basil_of_yentup] 25/10/2005 23:08

Oh, you're a deramper. Fair enough. I reckon there's a good chance this is as cheap as it gets. I find it interesting that stock is being soaked up at 63 and a bit p.

[tone] 23/10/2005 22:12

Its quite simple; if the bid is 60p and the offer is 70p and you try to buy some shares and the offer you get is 65p; then it indicates that someone is off loading at any price. once you get the offer (within market size) as the market price offer then you could say its near bottom;


Regarding the company and its products; its more than A1; so in the longer term as you say you should profit greatly

[the_basil_of_yentup] 23/10/2005 20:19

Tone, maybe, but for my benefit given I won't have time to read all the way back through this thread, could you construct your bear case for me? Thanks

[tone] 23/10/2005 16:48

Basil You will cut your hands

[johnroger] 22/10/2005 16:17

OK and thanks Basil

[the_basil_of_yentup] 22/10/2005 16:14

I have looked closely at Amino too. I think that's also a good quality company, likely to do well for the next two years, but I am less sure of the longer term. Besides, you get far more bang for your buck with Orca.

I confess I have watched Orca since 95p and have been rubbing my hands whilst sitting on them for this long. I've dived in now because of a) the Sky deal high-lighting the importance of IPTV, b) one of my favoured selling pressure indicators shows this could be a potential bottom and c) I can no longer balance the risk of a big deal (or bid for the co) against the reward of further downside.

Besides, I have more firepower should people be willing to sell Orca shares to me at an even more ridiculously low price!

[plain vanilla] 22/10/2005 15:25

basil--> great post & much appreciated.

[johnroger] 22/10/2005 15:19

Basil - intrigued to read your view. I have been watching for somewhile and wondering where the bottom is. Techinvest have recommended Orca and Amino [AMO]for the probable explosion in IPTV. Have you looked at AMO?
No holding in either at the moment.

[hotfinance14] 22/10/2005 14:54

Basil...boom boom!!!!

[the_basil_of_yentup] 22/10/2005 14:36

I have caught the falling knife of Orca this week. Am I crazy? I don't think so when I'm buying a world-leading technology on 3x 2006 p/e.

The Sky buy of Easynet is just one of many validations of the reality that is IPTV. It doesn't matter how we get our TV programs, just so long as it's easy to use and flexible. IPTV is the mass market way of providing that, and is a real threat to Sky's business model that is tied to satelite dishes. See the success in France (Iliad), Italy (Fastweb) and Hong Kong to realise that triple play thanks to rapidly rising bandwidths is already happening.

There are many reasons to explain Orca's share-price fall:
- Sentiment on UK listed IPTV players is dreadful, not least following ANT's profit warning having set ridiculous estimates for themselves and daring to call themselves 'monopolists' for a piece of software that is only worth $1
- The stock market has been taking risk off the table, with in Orca's case, no buyers and sellers panicked by the trend
- Israeli business with Emblaze heritage with its own baggage
- Lumpy business which depends on making a large deal or two to make published estimates and with no visibility on success or failure
- The fact that most of the action in IPTV is not in the UK (until now)
- The supposed threat from Microsoft

But Orca is a compelling investment:
- IPTV is commencing as a key plank of triple play but once embedded in people's homes, is a key driver for telco companies to improve revenue. IPTV capability will be in people's homes, whether they specifically use it or not.
- IPTV is quite likely to be the primary way we watch programs in the future, as people fit what they want to watch around their lifestyle. The success of Sky (and Sky+) show the demand for this, but IPTV will lower prices so that everyone can benefit (hence why Sky is making a defensive move into this space)
- No question in my mind that Orca's is a very good product that importantly is telco class - i.e. very robust after years of testing
- Orca has seen all its rivals bought up or affiliated with equipment makers. This leaves Orca as the ONLY independent. This means a telco who wants flexibility with their equipment supplier is likely to choose Orca.
- Middleware is the key software behind the telco offering, so is a very valuable part - unlike ANT's.
- Orca is a virtual monopolist in non-Western World deployments, where IPTV is taking off more rapidly
- Orca licence deals pull forward demand from the next year - i.e. in 2006, we need to be thinking about potential demand in 2007 which is why current forecasts are so achievable
- Cash is half of market cap

To conclude, Orca is likely to be present at every single deal going in IPTV. With the leading technology, independent status allowing it to work with a wide range of equipment suppliers, strength in emerging markets where deals have been much more significant than the Western world, cash backing and demand pull-forward, Orca is extraordinarily attractive. BUY - a minimum five bagger over 12 months.

[tone] 21/10/2005 08:45

Its going to fall again today

[tone] 20/10/2005 09:20

Its going to fall again today

[littleredrooster] 19/10/2005 11:37

No, it's not. The share price is on a strong upward trend, viewed from where I'm suspended anyway.

[tone] 19/10/2005 11:32

Its going to fall again today

[tone] 18/10/2005 08:50

Its going to fall again today

[slapdash] 17/10/2005 17:56

What about Sky deal today??? Could Orca sell its software to Sky or help it do Interactive TV through the Internet?????

Slap

[josuahjames] 17/10/2005 17:39

Tone.. can you substantiate your theory.

[tone] 17/10/2005 17:16

It will fall until the Mcap reaches the money in the Bank

[pbracken] 17/10/2005 16:30

This company has 36p in cash per share. Might start to look very interesting if it falls any more.

[tone] 17/10/2005 12:13

I have a feeling this is about to fall again