Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[polus] 03/8/2018 15:16

(So I can try and knock it down)

[asat91] 03/8/2018 15:15

Thanks someuwin that sounds pretty sensible. I see what you're saying regarding analysing opti as a pharma.

What part of Opti do you believe is it's biggeset strength and why?

PS rafboy you're right I haven't been bothered to read the website in depth yet. Only looked at it to find data reports of which there are none on the website. There is a reason for that and it's because the data is weak. I am not saying the company is weak. The data is weak.

I suggest you do research outside of company websites when you can, because company websites will likely be skewed in favour of the company.

[rafboy] 03/8/2018 15:13

asat91, sorry mate I have done my research and if can’t be asked to even look at the web site to get an idea of all the things OPTI are involved with that is your loss. Don’t bother replying I shall not engage again.

[ken chung] 03/8/2018 15:10

Stay long and strong here.A genuine compamy selling genuine products that do something useful.

[someuwin] 03/8/2018 15:09

asat91 - You're wasting your time here trying to knock OPTI on a pharmaceutical basis. OPTI aren't a Pharma company and aren't developing drugs. They're a functional food / additive / supplement company. i.e much lower regulatory requirements. (Although we are getting very strong rumours of a US pharma company intending to do a deal to take some of their IP down that route - at their expense and time obviously)

If you are interested in microbiome science being developed via pure pharma route, look at 4D Pharma (LSE:DDDD) who are working on multiple therapeutics including a collaboration with Merck working on Cancer treatments. (Ultimately the science is the same though - so both companies have huge potential)

[polus] 03/8/2018 15:08

Kinda worried guys. Does anyone have any contacts in TATA Chemicals? Maybe they should be warned of the poor science behind Slimbiome? :)

[judijudi] 03/8/2018 15:05

Another Heathen appeared
Doesn’t take then long does it

[asat91] 03/8/2018 15:04

Primal I am not claiming it is poor. I am demonstrating why the only piece of research I have seen on slimbiome IS poor. Not in my opinion. Based on scientific standards of investigation.

If you think there is strong research and evidence please link and I will comment.

I believe in independent free thinking and analysis for all. Don't be sheep. Pick any other animal to be. Be a pig for all I care, but don't be sheep.

[asat91] 03/8/2018 15:01

You need to be more specific rafboy so we can discuss a specific piece of research.

You may choose the piece of research that you think is the strongest for opti.

[primal123] 03/8/2018 15:00

Another one to ignore, claiming the research is poor when multiple global companies have deals completed and this guy thinks he is the only one who has done research and not the companies we have deals with. I do have to laugh at these sad people!

[rafboy] 03/8/2018 14:59

Start by having a look at the company web site. There is a great deal of information there.

[asat91] 03/8/2018 14:55

I am not an expert. I only gave my qualifications because they were asked for.

[nobbygnome] 03/8/2018 14:54

>> asat

GRAS is very significant. It means the regulatory authorities don't look at the safety aspect because it has already been established. I am surprised an expert doesn't know that...

[asat91] 03/8/2018 14:46

Link to other research please rafboy and I will comment

[rafboy] 03/8/2018 14:39

Asat91, for someone who says they are so highly educated you have hardly scratched the surface as far as research is concerned. Try looking at everything OPTI is involved with and not just a small part that you think you can discredit.

I wonder if your interest is a prelude to a short being opened.

[imnotlong] 03/8/2018 14:38

Elrico, not sure I fully understand your line below

‘BTW, the dirty little II fishing for stock from brokers, then selling into the rise has been flushed out.’

Surely an II would not be messing round for relatively small gains when the trading range was reasonably tight. Am I misunderstanding something as I would have thought any II would be taking a longer term position.

[malreid] 03/8/2018 14:35

Trotters just bought some C4XD yesterday - small amount compared to Opti but will add on strength

[asat91] 03/8/2018 14:21

At your request I have looked deeper into the data on your blog post and below is what I make of it.

Please let me preface this message by saying that I am not making any comment on whether the share price will increase or decrease. I have no idea where it will go and what will happen with the company. All I am interested in is the data at the moment. I am open to reading and discussing ALL evidence that you can produce and link to.

Elrico I have a postgrad maths degree and a science undergraduate degree. First class grade in research methods and a dissertation project which involved conducting a study and writing it up academic journal style. But to be honest you don't need high level qualifications to assess the strength of data. Look at it yourself.

On the positive side oxford brookes conducted a double blind study vs. placebo which is the highest standard of study to investigate efficacy.

Apart from that there isn't much that I would look favourably upon IN THE DATA that I have seen. Don't get me wrong this could turn into a billion pound company even with terrible data support for it's product. Slimfast did it and became a household name.

Negatives of the data include:

1) The results are collected over a 4-week period. SERIOUSLY!?! How can a university collect data on weight loss for 4 WEEKS and make any sort of conclusion about whether it works or not.

Put ANY obese woman on ANY diet for 4 weeks in a lab setting and they will lose weight. Find them a year later when they have been at home with Krispy Kreme around the corner and see that they have gained weight above their original levels because now they are eating donuts AND slimbiome products.

I would be more impressed with a 6 month - 1 year long study initially, with longer term data coming in after that.

2) all the results are self-report measures on 'cravings' and 'hunger levels'. This is so weak it is laughable. Plus the results weren't even very strong! Like a 5% or 10% difference. The results from slimbiome group were not even close to significant over placebo group.

3) There were 10 participants in each group. 10. Participants.

This is weak data, no doubt about it. Cannot believe an academic institution has put their name to this. I guess there is a reason that students look down upon polytechnic universities.

With regard to GRAS I don't know about that and this is the first I have heard of it. As far as I can tell that just means it isn't poisonous as far as they know yet?

[suzypink] 03/8/2018 14:16

I'm really surprised at the lack of coverage by daily newspapers. Most have a page covering stock movements the previous day. And both ours have beaten everything else talked about by a mile ?

[kmann] 03/8/2018 14:15

up over 30p on similar daily volume from 90p levels looks unsustainable. Going to hurt the newbies imo. SBTX similar, so double jeopardy if that falls too, like anti-leverage imo

[elrico] 03/8/2018 14:10

Michellemouse - you don't get it, both have minimal PLC costs. SBTX hasn't been derisked YET, but this will change come October, then a rerate. OPTI has been dersiked in science terms, and now multiple orders are flooding in. The fact you refuse to believe this is no matter to me, in fact, I'd be gutted if you bought, even at these levels.

What does TERN have to do with the price of fish? Comparing apples with pears again!

Allow me to assist you.....imagine OPTI report revenues of say £10m in FY 2019, PLC cost at say £1m pa. What earning multiple would you use to value OPTI. I'll give you another clue....Probi, is valued on 20x earnings. Now go an have a look at probi's PLC cost....if you took your TW/Elric blinkers off, you could argue OPTI be valued on 30+ x earnings.

SOH told me if he was to do a deal with a US pharma for LP-LDL, this would change the probiotic platforms valuation from £30m to £200m. There are 4 platforms, plus an online business, which is currently being built.

Fish in a barrel!

[trotterstrading] 03/8/2018 14:06

There are a ton of other reasons I've missed like a tightly held Share register, CEO with skin in the game + buying in open market at higher price and recent heavyweight Chairman Appointment (sound familiar;0)

[polus] 03/8/2018 14:02

"The data looks weak to me." - ahahahaahahahahahaHAHAAHAHAHAALOLOLOLOLOLOLOLAAHAHA!!

[trotterstrading] 03/8/2018 14:02

What a fantastic Friday! As LTH OPTI holders it doesn't get much better, what a difference from 6 months ago! Over the moon ;0)

[michaelmouse] 03/8/2018 13:48

kmann - Not too sure what you mean about "moved too soon"? I wouldn't short any story stocks because you're never quite sure when the bubble will burst and the hysteria can carry them for some time. However, the bubble will burst, as it's done with TERN today in quite spectacular fashion.

Eric you don't get it do you? Opti and sbtx may be involved in a new dynamic trend for all I care. They're overpriced by some considerable way though. Shares are no different to any other commodity, you've got to ask how much? TERN was ramped up to a ludicrous valuation and the loons even ignored a warning from TERN's management about it's true asset value. They're listening now I bet!

Opti and SBTX are going up on the irrational exuberance of the numpties imo. Perhaps it's the "hot" money that's coming out of TERN.