Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[riskybusiness1] 06/6/2018 17:35

That £700k spent on SKIN is now a £9m current asset for Opti. It really is looking like an outstanding bit of business. Just proves how good management here are at creating value. Successful trials results over there later this year will result in a substantial rerate again. Multiple opportunities really beginning to take shape now.

[dire cons] 06/6/2018 17:03

That's better bob. The more rampers we can get on here the better! =~)

[trotterstrading] 06/6/2018 16:52

Bob-a-lot, you certainly do.. ;0)

[bobalot] 06/6/2018 15:53

I have done some guesstimate calcs on the Seed deal for what its worth as a point for discussion.

I guess that one ton of Cholesterol reducing compound equates to 10,000 pots of capsules with a revenue of $1USD/Pot. The marketing experts will be expecting to achieve at least 20,000 retail outlets to sell the product States Wide with an initial expectation of selling 100,000 pots/months after product launch during the first six months. Yielding about $600,000 USD in revenue.

Sales should peak to at least a million pots/month after 18 months of market campaigning yielding on my guesstimate about $6,000,000USD/ Year revenue.

This is of course just my opinion...higher volumes equates to lower margins for OPTI. But I suspect revenues of $6-10 million as a steady state value once the SEED products mature in the market as a household name. Disagree---that's fine -- OPTI looks like a high growth venture right now.

[rafboy] 06/6/2018 15:25

SBTX on the move north today, all good for OPTI.

[parob] 06/6/2018 15:20

Taiwan News!Microbiome Company Seed™ Launches to Disrupt Probiotics, Set New Industry StandardshTtps://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3450442

[parob] 06/6/2018 14:48

And the media frenzy starts! hTtp://business.financialpost.com/pmn/press-releases-pmn/business-wire-news-releases-pmn/microbiome-company-seed-launches-to-disrupt-probiotics-set-new-industry-standards

[bayetya] 06/6/2018 14:36

Thanks Elric - as usual a very helpful and informative response

[elrico] 06/6/2018 14:28

Bayetya - I'm not convinced the Seed launch will have an immediate positive on the share price Like you point out, there is no immediate, and obvious direct link to OPTI without doing as many of us have....dig deep into the articles. Most people will not be aware 2 of OPTI's partners were also involved; The probiotic was produced by CSL (Centro Sperimentale del Latte, Lodi, Italy). Active and placebo formulae were blended, encapsulated and blind packaged in blister packs by Nutrilinea srl (Gallarate, Italy), this is of course in addition to OPTI LP-LDL strain being used in the product. How much OPTI will benefit in terms of revenues is a whole new topic. Off memory, I believe OPTI receive lower percentage royalty levels (7-10%) for this products. That is not my figure, it's SOH. For more detail;

[bayetya] 06/6/2018 13:49

Paul,
I don't want or need it to say anything. I just asked how this deal could possibly have any effect on the share price due to increased interest from US investors, which is what was being sprouted on here for the last few weeks.
I can't see it having any effect whatsoever, apart from seeing increased revenue down the line, which is obviously a good thing, but irrelevant to immediate US interest.

[pj 1] 06/6/2018 13:44

Nobby-IMO an average royalty rate is between 0.5% and 1%. Pharma may attract more?

[primal123] 06/6/2018 13:36

Remember Opti "chose" them not the other way around!

[paulhoodwinked] 06/6/2018 13:30

bay what would you like the science article to say to please you? It mentions optis strain and their role.

[monkeywench1] 06/6/2018 13:19

Revenue of £191073Admin expenses of £2244169Says it all really.

[colinzeal] 06/6/2018 13:18

No idea but I'd imagine SOH has got the very best possible deal from them for us. If Theil has backed the company hopefully they have deep pockets.

[someuwin] 06/6/2018 13:07

"...This agreement is a strategic step by OptiBiotix to access the US probiotic supplement market. The US is one of the largest and fastest growing probiotic markets in the world, with supplements alone accounting for $2.06 billion sales, with a projected 55% growth to $3.3 billion by 2021*.

LP-LDL(R) will be commercialised by Seed(TM) in an innovative product concept which combines multiple strains of different probiotics which have been selected because of strong clinical trial data. OptiBiotix's LP-LDL(R) strain has published human data demonstrating statistical and clinical significant reductions in cholesterol and blood pressure, won best scientific abstracts at both ProBiota 2017 and ProBiota 2018, and was finalist as ProBiotic of the year at Vitafoods 2018.

*Market data from 'TRENDS, INNOVATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES DRIVING THE GLOBAL PROBIOTICS MARKET' (Euromonitor International June 2017).

Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix, commented: "We are pleased to announce this agreement with Seed(TM) which extends the sale of LP-LDL(R) into the USA, the world's largest and fastest growing probiotic market. We chose Seed(TM) due to our shared vision of commercialising products with strong scientific and clinical data, their innovative product concept, and their ability to access the large USA consumer goods market. We are pleased that our strong science, successful human studies and international awards at major scientific conferences has attracted international interest in our products leading to continued regular deal flow as we build multiple revenue streams from partners across the world."

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2018 13:02

Which is why it is so important to know OPTI's share of the income. If they sell say 100,000 pots, how much do we think OPTI get?

[monkeywench1] 06/6/2018 12:57

It's called ramping. Get used to it.

[bayetya] 06/6/2018 12:41

That's a rather tenuous link as the only mention of OPTI is in the funding statement. The Business Insider article itself makes no mention of OPTI.
Not trying to knock it, but I just can't see how the Seed launch will have any effect at all on the share price which some were espousing in the past weeks?

[monkeywench1] 06/6/2018 12:39

Not a lot.

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2018 12:38

Do we have any idea how much of the $49.99 per pot OPTI get?

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2018 12:38

Double post

[riskybusiness1] 06/6/2018 12:34

Didn't the article that prompted Opti to RNS she Seed deal early have a link to published data highlighting Optis independent test results. Anyone taking SEEDs products for a cardiovascular benefit will be wondering what the active ingredient is.It definitely is a different approach in terms of Seed using a number of strains in their products rather than one specific strain targeted at a specific benefit. Guess that's the Americans mantra of bigger/more is better.Either way Seed are backed by investors with a track record of spotting revolutionising technology early. Goes hand in hand with SOH and the 'multiple products multiple partners strategy'. I'm sure the the LPLDL brand will be clearly visible on the product as a condition of the agreement. This all exposes the brand and is the beginning of a company visibly transitioning and growing its presence globally.

[paulhoodwinked] 06/6/2018 12:15

bay, try the link in post 36148 there is a science ref link