Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[currypasty] 04/5/2017 10:31

If the sbtx share handout to opti holders hasn't been finalised yet, then it cant be ex-divi so to speak, and so buying now still gives you the right to sbtx shares in the future.

but when the ex-sbtx date is announced and passed, it isn't actually 'free shares' as that value will be deducted from opti after the 'ex' date.

it also begs the question that will ALL opti holders who are eligible for sbtx shares, actually want to keep them. Will this then put more pressure on sxtx as some of the shares distributed are sold.

It seems to me the ipo was too early, and not fully thought out

I have opti, now well underwater, but not enough to worry about.. yet

[judijudi] 04/5/2017 10:29

someuwin,
SOH obviously thinks totally differently to you
But to be honest I don't think I'm much of a fan of this divison splitting

[judijudi] 04/5/2017 10:25

Drifting?
Free fall more like
And thats only an observation

[someuwin] 04/5/2017 10:24

OPTI own 42% of SBTX shares.

SBTX current valuation £12m. So OPTI's holding is worth 42% of £12m = £5m.

OPTI's current valuation is £52m. THerefore OPTI's holding in SBTX is equal to less than 10% of OPTI's valuation.

So, even if OPTI distributed their entire SBTX holding as a special dividend to OPTI shreholders it would be worth less than a 10% bonus.

...Is it really worth OPTI giving up all rights to future SBTX growth just to give OPTI shareholders some beer money now? I don't think so.

[trotterstrading] 04/5/2017 10:19

SP is drifting on a low volume of sells, and lower volume of buys. OPTI is not immune to the wider market, which is trending down due to a number of macro concerns. Buy when others are fearful, who was it who said that again, I think he was quite successful ;-)

[judijudi] 04/5/2017 10:16

No sign of any Cavalry

[elrico] 04/5/2017 10:16

Plasybryn - In simple terms, the info around the SBTX "in-specie divi" has not been handled very well, it has created a lot of confusion, uncertainty. Even though SkinBiotix cost a mere £660k, and NO value was attributed to the acquisition of the IP at the time, it appears Mr Market has seen fit to remove a sizeable chunk of SBTX's market value from OPTI. It is also worth noting SKIN was NEVER in the business model.

My personal view is the IPO should not have taken place until all the details around the "in-specie divi" were known. I dare say the timing of the IPO was more down to political issues around Europe than the need to split so SBTX had its own funds to accelerate towards commercial reality.

I have no doubt once the "in-specie divi" is realised there will be a number of ex investors feeling a little irked with their irrational behavior, while a few shrewd investors will be feeling a little pleased with themselves - I include myself in that latter number.

[plasybryn] 04/5/2017 09:42

I was reading all sorts of positive feedback from the recent SOH presentation including, and correct me if I am wrong,
1. possible SBTX payout to OPTI shareholders buy end of May/early June
2. Possible deal regarding a new product by 9th/11th May.
If any of that was true you would expect the share price to at least tread water, or do we have a distressed seller.
I'm not able to balance all the positive feedback with the share price acting since.
Can anyone put this in perspective?

[judijudi] 04/5/2017 08:57

Mr 10k up and about early

[warren1982] 04/5/2017 08:52

Elrico, another great post much appreciated, I have been here since just after launch so I am in the fortunate position of sitting on a nice profit, I know the last 12 months have been like treading water but I always intended to stay in for the long run. In a few years time we will be looking at a share price in the £££;££££'s Remember the story of the Tortoise and the Hare well I am more than happy to be the Tortoise.
GLA.

[colinzeal] 04/5/2017 08:17

Elrico can I say what a breath of fresh air your posts are - informative, objective and no nonsense. Thank you.

[elrico] 04/5/2017 00:13

I don't think anyone can state SBTX demerger has been a disaster just yet, not without having the full facts in which to judge it. Only when the "in-specie divi" is released will we know. By then we will know the true value of the "in-specie divi" to OPTI investors, it's effect on SBTX & OPTI share price It will also offer a greater insight to the next IPO, even the qualifying date and ex divi date may offer an insight, which should have a calming influence on OPTI and SweetBiotix IPO. It's entirely plausible to think OPTI will adopt the same strategy with SweetBiotix as with SBTX. They certainly want to speed things up, which could see another IPO around April 2018, with the likelihood of a higher market cap than SBTX, because unlike SBTX, SweetBiotix will probably have at least one commercial partner signed up and the market is much greater and quicker to access than SKIN. It may well attract new PI's like bee's to honey. The cherry on the cake will be LP-LDL launch and TATA, which I expect will offer greater optimism before the next IPO. There is much to look forward to rather than being distracted by resistance and support levels on a chart.

Allow the heretics have their moment and console yourself safe in the knowledge they will miss the ride we have been so patient for. They will all do a moonlight soon enough. No doubt they will have their fun elsewhere because it's the only way they know how.

[tsmith2] 03/5/2017 22:40

60 on graph. If that goes 40 target

[john henry] 03/5/2017 21:22

Parob, whether it goes down further or starts to recover from here will depend on buyers/sellers. The balance of supply and demand will eventually reverse.
The selling hasnt been particular strong its just the fact there is very little buying.

[whl2] 03/5/2017 21:06

I think lessons have been learned if/when future divisions are rolled out. Have to say, I am a bit surprised SBTX was listed so quickly given that there has been no further news since, not the best of starts (still a promising company however)

[branboyd1] 03/5/2017 21:01

The Skinbiotix demerger has been a disaster as Opti investors have lost confidence in the company and many feel shafted by management. I hope O'hara takes this into account while working on the final details of share distribution for Opti holders because he needs to restore some faith here.

[parob] 03/5/2017 20:55

Well JH I can't see these dropping much further so I'll be having a few more tomorrow. Looks like speccy investor has the same idea:hTTps://speccyinvestor.blogspot.co.ukToday has made me very miserable. OPTI:Optibiotix dropped another 2p and is losing £1,571. KIBO:Kibo Mining dropped 0.25p and is losing £1,169.53 which means OPTI:Optibiotix re-gains the title of Nemesis Share. It also means I may just buy some more tomorrow as 67.5p is an absolute steal given the new cardio products are being launched next week. Tomorrow morning could be very interesting....

[john henry] 03/5/2017 20:35

Parob, price action needs a flush out followed by a decent volume recovery. ( Hammer caddle) see Mars chart and the last time the chart was showing these levels.

[parob] 03/5/2017 20:18

I have a feeling we'll be heading North tomorrow.

Considering the stage we're at in the company's development, this price is an absolute gift IMO - you just need the guts to buy whilst others are fearful. As we've seen before, sentiment can change very quickly with OPTI and the price can rise just as fast as it's come down.

[judijudi] 03/5/2017 19:53

MN brought higher
Why didn't he predict the drop?

[bobdown2] 03/5/2017 19:05

Thanks marnewton that was excellent.

[marnewton] 03/5/2017 19:00

Disappointing.

But, one day does not a break make. There's still a chance we can regain the channel tomorrow.

And if not, all is not lost, yet. We closed on the support line at 67.00p, well, as near as dammit. If you look back along that line you can see how the area around it has acted as support/resistance. Going further back, off this chart, it's significance can be felt all the way back to February 2016.

You can also see the longest period below 67.00p was 35 trading days at the turn of the year, a mere blink of the eye;¬)

So, with bullish divergence on the stochastic, and now MACD, and RSI nearing oversold levels, we're due a bit of luck.

Should 67.00p fail, then 60.00p is indeed on the cards...a 100% retracement of all that was achieved in 2017.

M


Log scale daily candlestick chart:

[trotterstrading] 03/5/2017 18:31

The BB has become infested with muppets (again)!