Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[rafboy] 02/5/2017 08:54

Morning all, welcome back. I know you are watching really.

[diamond fibre] 01/5/2017 17:54

Made my day Rodders, play on words , but they will come, and after chatting to some one on here who has the exact same real name as me must be a sign to hold the shares. DIAMOND

[dogwalker] 01/5/2017 08:52

Simply a-maize-ing. Thank you OneDayRodders.

[pglancy] 30/4/2017 21:40

elrico, you made the same points as my grand pops. He is an accountant and he said the company appears to have a problem generating cash and put this down to r&d and cost of sales. I think its worth a little flutter. Fincap have a 180p target and as you point out it was 400p not that long ago.

[elrico] 30/4/2017 19:50

PGlancy - Rather than over analyze the situation with a company that does not meet its own forecasts. I find it is easier to look at what the company expects and compare with what it has achieved.

You only need to go back 6 months; TRAKM8 has missed its forecasts, cut its forecasts and missed them again. It Had emergency fund raising before it breached bank covenants.

You also point out so called YoY growth and compare revenues...or lack thereof as is the case. Each year is better than prior years, yet never generates any cash. Apparently the fund raising was oversubscribed. If this was the case why did management cough up for the funding. Surely it would have been better to allow II take up the funding then management buy from the market. Sure it would have cost them more, but it would have sent a better signal to the market instead of a discounted purchase.

In simple terms, here are the major issue for me;
Always books big profits - but never generates cash
Always YoY growth better than previous years - but never generates cash
BOD has serious credibility issues after missing its own targets, revised them and missed tham again
Full year target profit forecast was £3.8m. It turned out to be a mere 600k

Quite why you ask Michaelmouse for guidance with his track record is beyond me. There is a parallel with TRAKM8 and AVN. The latter has committed fraud, and like TRAKM8 it has missed its own forecasts for several years.

Far be it for me to advise you where to invest. If you are looking to invest, wait to see if it generates any cash, reduces debt and builds its existing business organically instead of smoke and mirrors and more importantly, wait and see if management can deliver or revise its forecasts again.

I can understand you thinking it must be cheap now because at the beginning of 2016 the shares were trading at 300p. That is some fall from grace, but it's even worse because they were near 400p late 2015 and in all that time Michaelmouse has been consistently singing TRAKM8 praises and never really tackling the real elephant in the room. Cash, debt and BOD credibility. Now I ask you....do you really want Michaelmouse to answer you or are you playing games?

[dogwalker] 30/4/2017 19:44

What kind of film was that ?

[diamond fibre] 30/4/2017 14:22

Good stuff Parob, like I have been saying "when we build it, they will come" (good film) and they will come. DIAMOND.

[parob] 30/4/2017 13:52

SOH quote from Primal123's email:We hope to announce further partnerships over the next few weeks and months and as these come on line our revenues will grow. And at the same time interest will grow from other partners including major players, just in the same way GoFigure helped to attract Tata to slimbiome. These big players won't want to be left behind. HLH is the first order but I'm really looking forward to seeing the snowball effect that should follow!

[pglancy] 30/4/2017 12:03

MM, i have been keeping an eye on trakm8 after reading your observations and your blog with a view of buying thinking they must be cheaper now, certainly cheaper for sure.
Can i pick your brains on the following.

September trading update it said trakm8 it had new orders booked at a rate of 37% greater than the same period last year, which were up 29%. If i understand this the order book had grown by 66%. But in the half year results its reported revenue was up only 12%. And in the trading update in September, it assured investors that trading was in line with expectations for the year as a whole then revised down significantly. operating profit was down 72% and operating cash flow was down 90%.

"The most recent forecasts, from December, have been torn up. At the half year results the company had made 600k in the first half, but it was adamant that it was somehow going to make £3.2m in the second half to hit its full year target of £3.8m.

That sounded odd at the time. Now the company is coming clean. Its new full-year forecast is to make just £1m." IC

My concern is trakm8 seem to have a habit of overstaing revenues not generating cash, the cash they do generate has to be ploughed back in as r&d and sale costs. As you can see they have missed their own targets and had to revise down just weeks after assuring investors all is ok then they tapped the market for cash to shore up the balance sheet. Worse still the directors had to pony up because there seemed to little appetite from the city. I initially put this down to bod confidence, now im less confident.

Part of me want this to succeed because i think there is a market for this tech. On the otherhand there seems to be a lot of companies in this space and trakm8 has tried to buy complementary companies as bolt on to add to what evryone thought was a growth company turn buyer and the buys had actually cost trakm8 dearly in terms of cash, distraction and not actually generating cash.

i was going to post this on the trakm8 bb but thought better of it incase others attacked me for asking questions. some are touchy i noticed. and i noticed you had a troll and didnt want to be accused of the same by others.

[joyjoy13] 28/4/2017 23:15

Thanks Diamond
I just say it as I see it.

I'm wondering if next week folk might start buying SBTX as its dropping. I know quite a few where interested in investing in it but took the decision to wait and see if it went lower so we might see it pick up in due course.

Anyhow, not long to wait now for OPTI and the news due in May or thereabouts..

Have a great long weekend folks.
Catch up Tuesday .

[adnanwolf] 28/4/2017 19:16

Couple of quotes"There is a dose-dependent, log-linear association between absolute LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular risk, and this association is independent of other cardiovascular risk factors and is consistent across the multiple lines of evidence," EAS consensus panel cochair Prof M John Chapman (Pitié-Salpétrière University Hospital, Paris, France) said during a late-breaking session at the European Atherosclerosis Society 2017 Annual Congress.AndAlso, unique to the EAS consensus panel document are tables that indicate the potential clinical benefit derived from lowering plasma LDL-cholesterol levels based on the person's baseline CV risk, LDL cholesterol, and duration of lipid-lowering therapy.One of the key implications of the paper is that lowering LDL cholesterol in those at high CV risk earlier rather than later is advisable, especially in those with familial hypercholesterolemia, Chapman said.

[adnanwolf] 28/4/2017 19:14

Interesting article on the role of LDL cholesterol in cardiovascular diseaseGood luck to all LTHAdnan

[riskybusiness1] 28/4/2017 14:13

As sumuwin mentioned about hollowing out opti they won't release the whole 41.9% bsck. It will be done in gradual phases to not damage optis value (though what may be lost in opti will only be gained by gaining skin anyway). Opti will no doubt leave a holding to run its course. Value won't start building in skin until the human trials and manufacturing scale up are confirmed....possible regret from those jumping to skin too soon when you will qualify for shares soon anyway??From what people have reported back from soh it sounds like the announcement signifying a qualifying date for these shares looms. This qualifying date will be retrospective to the date the shares are actually released. As explained by soh. Opti will want to increase the value in skin first by going through the process before releasing any value back.Imo Skin will be a 3/4x bagger in the next few years but I think some people do not understand the stage of development and time it takes. No doubt you'll get people soon asking where the revenues for skin are when there end of year comes out.simply looking at the mkt caps and saying '£50m company no revenues' misunderstands that the value derives from future earnings following the realisation of products from its ip. As a company that is just bringing its products to market it's a pretty stupid thing to say. Clearly the value is not based on current revenues. On the other hand opti increased its revenues by 10x since last year through its corporate clients...the ones that would take opti out of the market if it could get round the patents! No one has even mentioned because of a simple and misunderstood narrative.

[branboyd1] 28/4/2017 13:33

Ok I stand corrected. Thanks for clearing that up.

[diamond fibre] 28/4/2017 13:13

Well said joy , my kind of girl, looking at the long term like you.DIAMOND.

[asterix96] 28/4/2017 13:10

Cath O'Neill will have no say in the matter. He will be distributing the 41.9% of SBTX Shares held by OPTI to OPTI shareholders.

[riskybusiness1] 28/4/2017 13:09

Opti own the shares that they intend to generously release a portion back to shareholders. Sbtx will have absolutely no say other than to expect it to be done in s controlled manner.

[elrico] 28/4/2017 13:08

Bran - surely the agreement is to distribute the 41.9% back to shareholders and will have nothing to do with Cath as this would have been agreed BEFORE the IPO. My understanding is the best method is being worked out to minimize disruption to SBTX holders, hence the likely lock-in period.

PGlancy - Your are correct, there was no value to OPTI investment at the time it took control of SkinBiotix. In fact the shares price went down. To my mind any value removed from OPTI post divi payout will most likely be an irrational move, IMHO. Again, IMHO this has ALREADY took place, hence the fall from intra 90p recently seen.

[branboyd1] 28/4/2017 12:55

To be fair to O'Hara, he is beholden to Cath O'Neill and others who in my opinion, won't be as generous (or even willing) to dish out free or discounted shares to Opti holders. That is why I think this has turned into a mess when there should have been an agreement of how the share distribution would work prior to the demerger. To use an Afrikaans saying "wat 'n gemors!"

[rafboy] 28/4/2017 12:33

It depends on how much is distributed surely? May also explain why SBTX is drifting down.

[pglancy] 28/4/2017 12:20

somuwin, i do not mind admitting i am really confused with the sbtx shares.

you say.
'It seems to me that this situation with the 'free' shares is similar to any other company that decides to distribute a special dividend.

i.e Company X says that they will distribute a cash divi equal to say 10% of the value of the company on a certain date.

Shareholders will then receive the cash bonus, but in most cases the company's share price will drop by a similar amount (10% in this case) immediately following.'

If the total investment of opti money is 650k how can the value whatever sbtx is now be wiped off the opti share price especially when the market did not see value at the time of its investment, according to soh quote.

[trotterstrading] 28/4/2017 11:40

One of the questions I posed to SoH was did he have any concerns about a shift in opinion on the role of Cholesterol as a pre-cursor to metabolic disease (i.e. Cholesterol (LDL) is not necessarily the bad guy). He agreed it's not as simple as LDL level reduction, rather its multiple sub levels which are important but in order to keep the message simple and understandable LDL is widely used as a generic measure. Reassuringly he went on to say OPTI LP LDL strain elicits a significant reduction in Triglyceride count, which is becoming more and more accepted as a key measure of metabolic health.

It strikes me that with such powerful mechanisms of action on Cholesterol, Triglyceride and Hypertension OPTI's LP LDL is nothing short of a wonder strain, which given time will surpass LGG in the value stakes (€70m from memory?)

[trotterstrading] 28/4/2017 10:29

Added another £4k worth this morn, newsflow is going to see a step change from here on in, May/June should see a flurry of news on free SBTX shares, sales uptake and IMO a surprise of two (my guess OPTI acquire IP in cognitive health area), buying at these levels, at this stage of OPTI's development is a absolute no-brainer IMHO

[parob] 28/4/2017 10:02

Buyers returning today and we finally see a little tick up!