Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[2350220] 08/10/2017 22:52

Also want to add my 'Wow' too Riskybusiness.
Great explanation. A lot of which I hadn't gleaned before.
Now, how the heck do you expect me to sleep with all the excitement Risky??

Great stuff,
John

[nicktopten] 08/10/2017 21:55

the reality is.... is that if you own the IP and structure your contracts correctly, you have the ability to create revenue at every point of sale from manufacture to consumer.
This is what Opti, in my opinion, are doing where they can.

[incanus] 08/10/2017 20:27

Wow, just wow. Between rickybusiness and elrico we have the best researchers by far. The potential for multiple revenue streams seems endless and now made all the more clearer. I think we may have understimated the potential of opti. Thanks boys.

[riskybusiness1] 08/10/2017 18:13

Vanduke I'm not sure what your game is but it appears you are most definitely not from a wealthy syndicate as you originally made out. Elrico goes out of his way to provide accurate information for us. I do not see that he is 'obsessed' just genuine excitement from his great knowledge and understanding of this company which he shares to educate people who sometimes make comments without educating themselves first.Elric great post again by the way. One of the most interesting but difficult to understand parts to Opti apart from the science is it's model. Below from my knowledge I have also attempted to explain my understanding of the revenue stream model using information I have gathered from the company over the years. This revenue stream will either be two or three streams that will be determined by the end channel to market. It is almost identical to the Probi model that has undoubtedly been very successful.The opti LPLDL model:Sacco: the manufacturer and supplier of the raw LPLDL ingredient 50/50% profit share. Sacco supply the raw ingredient to companies like nutrilieanea who 'produce and commercialise the product'. This product can be LP-LDL by itself or in combination with other ingredients and presented in table, capsule, or sachet format depending on the market. The Sacco revenue will increase following the increase in the number of distributors. The raw product however is pretty cheap so Sacco profit share will likely be pretty insignificant to begin with until the below network builds. Nutriliniea - Nutrilinea is a producer (encapsulater/formulator) and final packager. There are multiple types of these companies, Nutrilinea appears to be the first Opti have gone with. These companies will either put together the end products/formulations for already existing formulations for pharmacies/retailers e.g Cholbiome/cardibiome/Lactobact LPLDL OR a completely different product/presentation specifically designed for the end distributor. It is at this point that the 2/3 revenue stream will be determined depending on the distributor channel that follows. I think opti get either a license/profit share from the sale of the final packaged product from Nutrilinea OR if the end distributor is a high street/online retailer opti can buy the final packaged product for a set amount (e.g existing formulations cholbiome/cardibiome/Lactobact LDL) from Nutrilinea or similar type company, mark up the price 50-100% or more and sell online and in high street retailers/pharmacies. For example your Boots, Holland & Barrett's HLH etc stick ready made products on the shelves rather than license IP. I believe this is how the HLH deal is structured. To be clear of my understanding, either opti will buy the product from Nutrilinea and sell it to Retailers/Pharmacies at high margin OR gain revenue through a license/profit share from the sale of the final products from Nutrilinea on to the final larger distributors/ consumer goods companies. This then creates the third revenue which is the licensing royalty payments for LPLDL.Revenue stream number three therefore is the most cost effective and 100% margin stream which will be from Royalties/Licence agreements for distribution of final products by a licensed partner. The final products will have ingredients supplied by Sacco, been formulated/encapsulated by companies like Nutrilinea, and licensed to a partner by OptiBiotix in a specific formulation and presentation (tablet, capsule, satchet). This allows for multiple deals per territory. The beauty of this approach is that OptiBtioix can offer a customised range of products to a consumer goods partner based on a royalty but will also gain revenues from the sale of the ingredient to the producer and the sale of the product from the producer to the consumer goods partner. The license will likely be a small 7.5-12.5% but on much larger volumes. It is these negotiations that opti will demand minimum royalty guarantees for the exclusive distribution of that product/formulation/presentation in a particular territory. The larger partners will usually expect this following the commitment to mass distribution. This exclusivity would be for the formulation rather than the LPLDL ingredient in general. Clearly if a company wanted exclusivity for the entire LPLDL ingredient they would have to pay big money as OPTI is at the beginning of building a distribution network around LPLDL. LPLDL's science is linked to many other types of diseases like diabetes etc, selling this strain now would be selling away its potential. This model promotes the LPLDL ingredient through multiple channels at little expense to Opti, grows the global LPLDL brand, increases the overall opportunity and significantly reduces the reliance on any one partner. It is these steps that will turn LPLDL in to a strain more valuable than Optis current mkt cap if successful, though this does not happen overnight as you might expect following getting a grasp on the above.'The intel inside' 'The coffee bean model' 'multiple products multiple partners multiple revenues'.The two stream:1.Sacco (50/50%) on ingredient2.Retailer/Pharmacy online sales (Opti will likely buy the finished product from Nutrilinea mark up the price 50-150% sell finished product through these multiple channels e.g HLH). This stream also has the option to profit share/license finished products from Nutrilinea instead of buying them but will depend on the agreement and will vary.The Three stream:1.Sacco (50/50%) on ingredient 2.Nutrilinea (profit share/license on the sale of the final packaged formulation to distributor/consumer companies) 3.Consumer company/distributor exclusive license for a specific formulation/presentation and/or territory. 7-12.5% on sales. Minimum guarantees required for exclusive territory deal.Opti are at the very beginning of a new scientific frontier that is very much expected to be the next revolution in healthcare. The microbiome revolution, like any new technology/space takes a while to fully take over the existing industry. The Probiotic market is huge and growing, the market is now demanding greater science to validate the claims made by these products. For obvious reasons the products that have solid science will likely be very successful and valuable e.g chr Hanssen LGG strain recently bought for €60m. The recent increase in funding both private & public in the microbiome space with the exponential rise in patent applications tell you opti are doing all the right things to fully exploit an enormous opportunity before it happens. 'Right place right time'.Occasionally there are murmurs of a cash raise...Opti could sell skin shares or cut down its R&D spend and last for 3-4 years without any revenue from today. Remember with opti there are no manufacturing facilities, offices, large groups of staff or production facilities. Soh has derisked this company on so many levels. Any cash raise from now would be used for another SBTX type investment or another way to increase value more quickly. This was a result of the last £1m placing used to create an £11m company in 12 months. If these guys raise money it will be to build value. A placing to build growth is completely different from a placing to cover operating costs. This is AIM after all and it is very important to differentiate the two.As shown above this is a distribution network developing for some very exciting ingredients. If you take the above model and put it in to action across the four divisions you see a very different investment to the people that currently ask where the revenues are at this stage and begin to realise why. By the time the Sacco agreement and the distribution network model is fully understood by the wider market and how Opti isn't your average AIM company we should see the back of this trading range for good. Opti rose to this mkt cap due it's exceptional research in a new area of high interest to companies operating in vast markets...hence all the attention Opti has received in a short space of time. It may have grown too quickly to soon however the commercial phase is finally here and the next step up has been building for a while.There's always risks and nothing is a safe bet but do your homework and you'll feel far more excited about your investment here.Good luck all LTH.

[parsnip1] 08/10/2017 18:01

Article spot on Elric and well written

[judijudi] 08/10/2017 17:38

Nice one elrico
Yet another great post with excellent and detailed info
Top Man

[elrico] 08/10/2017 17:17

Peeps - I am truly humbled. Thank you all.

I have managed to complete a detailed explanation on how OPTI will manage to extract real value from their science. I hope I have managed to get the complexity of the revenue streams across ok.

Big thanks for SOH patience and his input.

[incanus] 08/10/2017 16:17

Slarty, yes for the 5th time. Love it.

[cool druid] 08/10/2017 15:28

[...]

Merrill Lynch Ups Motif Bio Stake Following Iclaprim Results (ALLISS)
By Alliance | Fri, 6th October 2017 - 14:19

LONDON (Alliance News) - Merrill Lynch International has raised its stake Motif Bio PLC under a transaction on Wednesday and now holds 5.038% interest in the pharmaceutical company.
The purchase came on the same day Motif Bio reported positive results from its phase III clinical study of flagship antibiotic Iclaprim. Iclaprim met its primary endpoint in the phase III trial in patients with acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections, which was non-inferiority whilst compared to the standard of care vancomycin.
Earlier today, Motif Bio released new pre-clinical data showing positive results regarding the use of Iclaprim. In an in vivo model mimicking the pathophysiology observed in cystic fibrosis patients, rats were dosed with either 80 or 60 milligrams of Iclaprim, 50 mg of Vancomycin, and a placebo.
The Iclaprim rats showed a 100% survival rate, 33 out of 33, while Vancomycin showed 92% survival rate and the placebo 48%.
Merrill Lynch had a holding that was below the notable threshold prior to the purchase.
Motif Bio shares were up 6% on Friday at 46.11 pence.
By Joshua Warner; [e-mail]; @JoshAlliance

Read more:

A step ahead of ImmuPharma is Motif Bio, which has successfully completed not one, but two phase III clinical trials and is preparing to submit its antibiotic, iclaprim, for regulatory sign-off. While the shares are up 23 per cent this week at around 43p, analysts think it could be worth double that figure.
Amphion Innovations, the investment group, owns just over 14 per cent of Motif. Its chief executive thinks market hasn’t quite grasped how valuable this shareholding is. He might be right as Amphion’s market capitalisation is some way short of the value of its Motif investment

[malreid] 08/10/2017 15:19

vanduke and unluckymouse - filtered

[onedayrodders] 08/10/2017 12:31

unluckymouse7 Oct '17 - 11:11 - 27824 of 27846 2 2

"I have kept quiet long enough"


That's simply not possible

;o)

[vanduke] 08/10/2017 11:25

I have not been offensive on this board. I apologise if I have offended anyone.

[bobdown2] 08/10/2017 10:47

Shrewmole absolutely correct. That's why we periodically have those that are trying to destroy the strongest link.. I think that some of these posters whose intentions are obvious should not be replied to...most of us on here are more than clued into the aim market to expect elrico to defend his outstanding credibility to those who write the offensive posts. If thier posts go unanswered then they are less to post again..

[shrewdmole] 08/10/2017 10:22

What's important is not just elricos writing prowess but henobviously has soh's trust and respect.

How many other aim companies have a direct link to the CEO that is a trusted buffer between the two where concerns as well as questions can be raised.

Soh is no fool he doesn't give price sensitive info but often Elrico asked for points to be clarified that many on here are second guessing due to say the way an Rns is worded.

With the company approaching the inflection point this is a great relationship to be nurtured between soh and the pi's via Elrico.

s

[humphries1] 08/10/2017 08:34

elrico please dont step back, i have never ever trusted a poster so much as i do ELRICO, keep it up my man.
and very good luck to us all

[vanduke] 08/10/2017 08:04

Very paranoid board. I enjoy Elricos posts just making the point that maybe step back a little as he seems to be getting emotionally attached with OPTI. Apologies if I offended anyone.

[portrush] 07/10/2017 22:32

Vanduke never fooled me, and I know he didn’t fool many of you either....the board will be a better place without his imaginary buying claims.

[incanus] 07/10/2017 22:14

Having spent time with elrico on a couple of occasions in my home city Mechelen, i have first hand experience how he thinks. Belgium bruin does this with great effect. I feel no shame in confessing elrico has saved me from reducing my holding. Vanduke filtered because it it is clear he is a fraud. Why would someone with his responsibility be advocating the most authoritative take a back seat if he had so uch at stake as head of his syndicate?

Please don't take a back seat elrico. xx

[loungeact] 07/10/2017 20:47

Vanduke came along trying to pretend he was a serious investor and building up a position here. Played the game a while, talked about how good Opti was, but it was pretty obvious. Tried to build up some credibility so his opinion counts for something when he plays out his real agenda, lol. We all knew mickynouse wasn’t going to give in that easy.

[judijudi] 07/10/2017 19:57

Vanduke is obviously a fraud
Elrico is the real deal
End of

[primal123] 07/10/2017 19:46

John - true, have now filtered! All the best with gofigure.