Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[dave4545] 22/12/2023 12:10

People are giving up here 86k sold at 11.53p seems too low ?

[dave4545] 20/12/2023 15:17

159k buy showing as a sale of course

[dave4545] 20/12/2023 09:41

Somebody paid 12.95p at the open.

Yet now online it's 12.26-12.41p so nowhere near 13p offer on monitor

[the original goldbug] 19/12/2023 10:31

My understanding is that they are at full run rate on the PLF. Indian coal mines from the North are at the margin taking share away from The seaborne coal trade.

The set up is looking good.

[dave4545] 19/12/2023 08:14

Agree, keep it sensible bubba

Anyway out of nowhere it's moving on L2 and NT to buy online so perhaps a delayed
buy to show in a hour

[tim000] 19/12/2023 07:01

That’s just a stupid comment. Without knowing the future trends in PLF, prices, coal prices etc, you don’t know future profitability. And you certainly don’t know their future capital allocation policy - they don’t know it themselves. Buybacks may or may not happen at all, either way the important thing is future profitability.

[tim000] 18/12/2023 19:51

The debt has maturity dates. What matters is not the debt (which as you know is enormously reduced in recent years) but the cash generation of the business. If cash generation is good, as I expect, then the buybacks etc will follow. You overlook how much improved the balance sheet is - you ignore a large increase in liquid assets for example.

[bubbabubbabubba] 18/12/2023 19:19

Bamboo probably sent the share price down tbf

[bubbabubbabubba] 18/12/2023 19:15

Dropping back in cos i watched the presentationWhat I found amazed meDebt free in 2029 no time soonNo spare cash on the balance sheet cos of debt and accounts payableThey lied about selling the solar assets no one wants itSomehow gonna use bambooThey have no intention of selling and no buyout offersShare buybacks and dividend not comingHow can you invest in this they don't care about shareholdersThey would of done a buyback at 5p if they wanted to do it

[dave4545] 18/12/2023 15:56

So much 2 way trade atm so not getting any movement either way not one change on
L2 today

[the original goldbug] 18/12/2023 14:59

That ultimately my thinking on this issue. Allow the industry a period of super normal profits or have no electricity...

[tim000] 18/12/2023 14:51

The main downside for me is that the industry is heavily regulated; power prices are not determined by market forces of supply and demand. Ultimately, however, if the country wants a reliable power supply it will have to pay gencos a sufficiently high price to incentivise investment in more capacity.

[nathandc] 18/12/2023 14:26

So demand makes perfect sense which will be serviced by thermal and why I am heavily invested here I challenge my self and this board on the real value of OPG and the perceived risk The question is for how long and what will be the tipping point ...

[tim000] 18/12/2023 14:20

For me, of far more importance is India’s rapidly growing power demand (including for air con), which makes thermal power generation capacity indispensable. India is planning to add thermal capacity for the foreseeable future, not remove it.

[nathandc] 18/12/2023 14:11

So the coal term - is relatively subjectiveHypothetically: a potential buyer would only consider x years. In my mind that would be 10 years Climate change pressure and the advancement of new technologies would be my argument. This is a risk factor for valuation but certainly but it well above todays priceHome work to do a 10 year projection...

[tim000] 18/12/2023 13:39

Renewables accounted for 9.6% of India’s power generation in November, compared with 78% for coal. The renewables share had declined over the previous 12 months; coal’s share had increased. I wouldn’t assume that, with very rapid power demand growth, this trend is going to change in the medium term.

[the original goldbug] 18/12/2023 13:33

Yes indeed the coal term duration would differ in Sweden from India of course.

I would say back of envelope on an 8% discount rate on a cross the cycle cash flow for a 25 year life cycle would have a present value of take your pick anywhere between £150m-1b! Haha

Your point is well taken but I don't think possible to forecast. Please don't by shy and give it a go though!

[tim000] 18/12/2023 13:32

That’s decades away, probably beyond the economic lives of the plant.

[nathandc] 18/12/2023 13:15

I question the real value of the assets and the revenue it will generate over the " coal term" The "Coal term" being the period where OPG is not impacted or replaced by renewables...

[nathandc] 18/12/2023 09:54

As they have come out and said the installed capacity is worth twice at today's market to build, that would would imply the company would be worth 80 This statement could mean they are looking for a buyer ? They have never been clear on the end game.

[the original goldbug] 17/12/2023 12:20

I think they want to build considerable cash on the balance sheet to finance taking it private, hence the apparent prevarication on buybacks and dividends.

It's a question of price and time. As they have come out and said the installed capacity is worth twice at today's market to build, that would would imply the company would be worth 80 pence.

Clearly they will be more opportunistic than that. I think Cavendish's 27p number serves several purposes...

The longer they leave it the more it will cost as cash will build very quickly in the current environment.

If this scenario is correct the directors will looks at discounts to book as a valuation yardstick and what comparables are trading. (I would guess mostly at 30% discounts to book).

I'm hoping if this happen by June next year we get 32-35p. That would be fair in my opinion. Much less would be painful and much more unrealistic.

[cousinit] 17/12/2023 11:31

Well, I'm so glad we have such a modest thought leader in charge of a cutting edge 21st century business...