Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 10/2/2018 23:17

Ok, this is more up to date (from OPG website):

Aevind Gupta 51.6%
M & G Investment Management Ltd 11.2%
River and Mercantile Asset management LLP 3.6%
British Steel pension Scheme 3.6%
Audley Capital Management Ltd 3.2%

[turbocharge] 10/2/2018 23:10

We are not alone

AS OF 31 JUL 2017
M&G Investment Management Ltd.2017 39.88m 11.19%
Audley Capital Advisors LLP 19.66m 5.52%
Pension Services Ltd. 12.65m 3.55%
Hargreave Hale Ltd. 9.36m 2.63% (AS OF 31 MAY 2017)
Slater Investments Ltd. 8.18m 2.30% (AS OF 28 APR 2017)
Premier Fund Managers Ltd. 7.16m 2.01% (AS OF 01 NOV 2017)
Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. 5.72m 1.61% (AS OF 29 DEC 2017)
Investec Asset Management Ltd. 4.92m 1.38% (AS OF 30 SEP 2017)
River & Mercantile Asset Management LLP 4.51m 1.27% (AS OF 31 MAR 2017)
Pactum Asset Management Ltd. 545.00k 0.15% (AS OF 30 JUN 2017)

[jozo] 10/2/2018 10:15

And azelea you clearly love people losing money - following your pearls of wisdom form 110p would have resulted in a more than 80% loss.Do you actually realise how precarious things are for opg?Get real - andycapp is spot on with his analysis.Yes there is some hope especially with coal showing significant drop in price. (Currency also needed to support this) - a reversal in that trend would essentially derail any recovery plans for opg and I suspect would mean investors risk losing everything.The risk reward is very high!Andycapp has clearly researched opg and totally understands this risk/reward. The debt is a huge issue for opg right now. Ignore that risk at your peril.However, the futures market is pricing in further drop of 10% in Newcastle coal by June 18. As long as exchange rates do not negate any positive impact (AND opg haven't hedged at high coal prices AND they achieve some uplift - not fall - in tariffs) then opg should recover significantly as it should become able to manage its debt.The market turbulence of the last 2 weeks has and is taking the hot/speculative money out of the commodities sector. The true fundamental level based on demand and supply may take some time to become clear and a much will depend on China.The market has clearly seen these commodity sector falls and the spotlight is quickly shifting to companies that will benefit - opg is such a company and hence the spark in the share price!Let's hope it continues!

[azalea] 10/2/2018 08:44

andcapp1 the eternal pessimist. He hates people making money.

[andycapp1] 09/2/2018 16:01

Fillipe, sound words from Dave but ignore Azalea. He spouts utter tosh. If the coal price falls materially this share will rebound hugely. If not it’s got £300+m of non recourse project finance and one horror plant at Gujarat. If coal stays high it’s all squeaky bum time! If coal falls this thing should generate £70M+ EBITDA off of an EV of say £375m. So equity could be 50p+. But high risk!!

[dave4545] 09/2/2018 15:56

Might be some short closing that 60k could well be one.

[azalea] 09/2/2018 15:51

Babbier
OPG turned in a loss in H1 FY 2018,largely due to substantially higher coal prices.The company forecast a return to profits in FY 2019 on the back of lower coal prices. Given that coal prices are already starting to fall, and with its new self owned 64k ton freighter being used, the shipping costs should reduce the overall price of coal going forward. Any indication in FY 2018 results(due this August), of a return to profits in 2019, should put a real upward move on the share price

[fillipe] 09/2/2018 15:42

Dave, ok, thanks for the steer.

f

[dave4545] 09/2/2018 15:35

Hi babbler/fillipe

Can be quite a good trading share when you catch this one right. It's a sound business , just has a lot of debt otherwise it would be treble the price overnight.

Took some earlier, just a trade

[fillipe] 09/2/2018 15:07

Quite a perky show today.....lots of trade; almost all buys, from what I see.
A cheap share which is needing to be bought, imo.

f

[babbler] 09/2/2018 14:51

Why all the buying today! Looks tempting but last 2 months hasn't crossed 22p?

[turbocharge] 09/2/2018 14:46

110p? Blimey, I'm going to keep holding these!

[azalea] 09/2/2018 13:44

jozo
Good work reporting falling coal prices. The share price whilst on the upward turn, is down from its high of 110p and sitting on a much higher NAV, with all its new plants. With its own 64k ton freighter ready to ship coal from Indonesia to its plants back in Chennai and Gujarat, there is significant potential for the share price to move much higher.

[jozo] 09/2/2018 09:34

More significant falls on coal futures again yesterday - another 1.85% and 3% off Feb and march prices.Feb prices now down over 10% over last 2 weeks.The quicker this correction happens the better for opg!

[andycapp1] 08/2/2018 13:14

Yes just looked and you are right, I hadn’t spotted this. Looks like OPG is becoming a coal proxy (which is at least half right)! We used to look at dark spreads, spark spreads, then a mate suggested bark spreads for Drax and then quark spreads for the old British Energy!! Oh well here is to falling coal!!

[azalea] 08/2/2018 13:10

SP on the move in the right direction.

[jozo] 08/2/2018 11:49

I see Newcastle coal futures down yesterday another 1.25% and 2.6% for Feb and march respectively.There's been quite a drop recently.Just maybe a glimmer of hope for opg if this continues.

[andycapp1] 08/2/2018 11:36

Azalea your searing analysis is as usual utter tosh. Of course they wont maintain (pay) a dividend. They have said previously dividends will be linked to earnings (15% pay out last year) and as they wont earn anything next year they wont pay a divi!!! In any case their covenants must be creaking and unless they want to do a Carillion, there wont be a bean hitting your investment account from this thing next year! Really you are such an utter dolt.

[azalea] 08/2/2018 08:56

Buyers at the current price could be on a winner, if last years div is maintained.

[andycapp1] 07/2/2018 20:10

In theory yes if they built 000’s MW because the capacity factor on solar is maybe 12/13% whereas coal is maybe 85%. So they have 800MW of coal....so you do the math!! In any case they don’t have the balance sheet or sites or PPAs. So practically the answer is “no”. They have to hope they can keep going, that coal falls and/or tarrifs rise. That gets them and us out the sh1t!!

[chalky] 07/2/2018 10:20

would investing more in solar energy dilute the coal price problem ?

[azalea] 07/2/2018 09:00

I know for certain that the 100k @ 17.5p yesterday at 16:24pm, was a buy!

[jozo] 07/2/2018 08:13

I suspect that some of the speculative money that has been pushing a range of commodities higher (beyond the fundamentals) is being taken off the table.Coal futures definitely showing some significant fallsHopefully this unwinding of market positions will continue. I knew it would happen at some point this year but it's taken me by surprise how quick it has happened with the US pay data and rising 10 year bond rates finally bursting the bubble.IMHO this is not a moment too soon for opg.If this continues then there should be a significant turn around and rebound in the share price.Jozo

[azalea] 06/2/2018 15:40

Silver lining/dark clouds scenario.

[big jim5] 06/2/2018 10:34

Early days, but coal price now falling. 1 month forward is $86/MT down some 10% from December 2017 highs.